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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/12/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 15 opening line report Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles

There are just 4 weeks to go in the NFL regular season, and a pair of very crowded Wild Card races have ensured there will be plenty of meaningful football on the horizon. Last week, we went 1-2 on our picks, but still have a very respectable 21-19-2 record ATS so far this season. The Colts went into halftime on level terms, but Jake Browning and the Bengals scored 20 unanswered second half points to take home the victory. We leveled up the week with a convincing Broncos victory, but a few questionable calls at the end of the Chiefs vs Bills matchup ensured we stayed under the .500 mark in Week 14. Before we dive into a mouthwatering Week 15 slate, here are the biggest storylines from a season defining Week 14.

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  • Walk-off for Tylan Wallace: The Ravens and Rams were knotted up at 31 in overtime, before Wallace’s punt return sealed a Ravens victory. The Ravens are now the only AFC team with double-digit wins and control their own destiny in the race for the coveted #1 seed. 
  • The Bengals aren’t dead yet: A season ending injury to Joe Burrow had the Cincinnati faithful rightfully pessimistic about the tail end of the season, but another convincing win from Browning has the Bengals still in the thick of the Wild Card race. A tough rest of the season still awaits, but the Bengals have all the tools they need with Browning at QB to make a late postseason push. 
  • Texans get thumped: Houston lost CJ Stroud to a concussion, Tank Dell to a season ending leg injury. To top things off, they took their heaviest defeat of the season in a 30-6 loss to the lowly Jets. Houston’s playoff hopes hinge on the health of Stroud, and they now have an uphill battle for meaningful January football. 
  • Bills outlast Mahomes at Arrowhead: The Bills are now 3-0 at Arrowhead in the regular season in the Josh Allen era, thanks to a nail-biting Week 14 victory. A heavily scrutinized offside flag will be examined for weeks to come. However, in a game the Bills could not afford to drop, they found a way to win. 
  • Cowboys make a statement: The Cowboys ran riot over a reeling Philly defense, scoring 30+ points at home in every game this season. Dak Prescott has thrust himself into the MVP conversation, and the Cowboys temporarily sit atop the NFC East with 4 games to go. 
  • Dolphins get shocked: The Dolphins blew a 14-point lead with 3 minutes to go in their 28-27 loss to the Titans. They were the first team to blow a two-touchdown lead in the final 3 minutes since 2016, and the alarm bells will be ringing in Miami. 

Now that Week 14 is in the books, it’s time to look ahead at a promising Week 15 slate. These picks must be locked in as soon as possible, as there is no guarantee these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around Sunday afternoon.

Game 1: 

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns 

Opening Line: Cleveland Browns (-3)

The Browns and Bears square off in Week 15. And while the Bears still have an outside chance of a postseason berth, the Browns have much more to play for. After losing DeShaun Watson and Nick Chubb to season-ending injuries, the Browns elite defense looked ready to be wasted when paired up with a struggling offense. The introduction of Joe Flacco has kept the Browns postseason chances alive, and they will likely need to go just 2-2 to secure a playoff berth. Their once-elite defense has been lit up in recent weeks, giving up 29+ points in each of the last 3 games. However, against a lackluster Bears offensive front, they should be able to get back on track. Justin Fields brings several different elements to the table, and his ability to tuck the ball and pick up first downs has kept the Bears afloat. DJ Moore has been fantastic at getting behind the secondary. However, unless the Bears star wideout is wide open, Fields will struggle to get the ball in tight windows. Cleveland’s secondary is their strong suit, so I expect the Bears offense to be muted and for the Browns to force them to move the ball down the field with short completions and effective runs. Expecting the Bears to consistently move the ball is a tall task, and a new look Browns offense will be able to pull ahead on the scoreboard and never look back. The Bears have benefitted from early leads. And if they can’t score the first points, their punishing, clock-draining style of football will be far less effective. The line is sitting at 3 points without the hook, and that may not be the case on Sunday. Grab the Browns at a flat 3 points, and sit back and watch the superior, motivated, home team get the job done.

Pick: Cleveland Browns (-3)

Game 2: 

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills 

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills (-2)

The Bills and Cowboys were the biggest winners from Week 14, taking down the Chiefs and Eagles, respectively. Conquering the defending conference champions will go a long way in each of these teams’ respective goals, but a high stakes matchup in Buffalo awaits in Week 15. The Bills have been one of the best teams in the league but don’t have the wins to show for it. They have the 5th best point differential, scoring 104 more points than their opposition, yet have just a 7-6 record to show for it. Josh Allen has been making critical mistakes all season long. And when a potent Dallas pass rush gets to him, he will do so once again. The Cowboys cannot afford to drop a single game if they expect the challenge for the NFC East title, as Philadelphia owns the tiebreaker against them. They’ve been dominant at home, and they’ll be hoping to improve upon their pedestrian 3-3 road record. The Bills own the only other perfect home record, but their tendency to throw games away will come back to bite them and hand them their first home loss of the season. Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense will not be stopped, as a once formidable Bills defense has been decimated with injuries. There is no doubt Dallas will score 25+. And if Allen and the Bills find themselves trailing early, he will force the ball into places it shouldn’t be, and bring the Bills back down to .500. In short, the injuries to the Bills defense will play a huge role in determining the victor, and with both teams playing desperate football, I trust Prescott to keep his composure and guide the Cowboys to a valuable road win. The 2.5 points in the back pocket may come into play down the stretch, but I expect Dallas to win outright, and will grab them while this underdog price is still available.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)

Game 3: 

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
The Eagles will be able to get back on track against the Seahawks, who have seen their postseason push stall in the latter stages of the season. Just like last season, Geno Smith had a fantastic first half before petering out down the stretch. His injury concerns have not helped, as the Seahawks were forced to put Drew Lock under center in their 28-16 loss to the 49ers last week. The Seahawks have all the pieces to succeed but will always struggle against the best teams in the league. They have a solid defense, quality offensive weapons, a reliable head coach, and the desire to keep the winning mentality alive in Seattle. However, the Eagles will be angry, and looking for a ‘get right’ game, and the Seahawks will fall victim. Jalen Hurts has been a shadow of his former self in recent weeks, but it hasn’t been just the offense that has been the issue. The Eagles defense was picked apart by the 49ers and Cowboys, giving up 75 points combined in their last 2 losses. They still have plenty of holes to fill, but a weakened Seattle offense will not be the ones to expose them. Philadelphia still controls their own NFC East destiny. And with the Cowboys nipping at their heels, they cannot afford to lose a third straight. It’s a short spread, and considering the gulf in class between these two teams when healthy, which has been widened by Seattle’s injuries, it’s still too short. The Eagles will roll to a double digit victory and reinsert themselves into the NFC number 1 seed race.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

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