NFL Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/28/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 13 opening line report Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers

Week 12 is in the rearview mirror, as the NFL playoff picture begins to solidify in the closing weeks of the season. Last week, we went 1-1-1 on our picks, moving our season record to 19-15-2. We got off to a rough start, after Washington came nowhere near covering the 11-point spread in their 45-10 thumping courtesy of the Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers took care of business as small favorites against Jake Browning and the Bengals, and the Eagles pushed the 3-point spread in their wild overtime triumph against the Buffalo Bills. We once again saw the benefit of locking in these bets early, as the Eagles closed as 3.5-point favorites, which would’ve been a loss rather than a push. Before we get into Week 13, here are the biggest narratives from a season defining Week 12.

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Lions Thanksgiving struggles persist: The Lions extend their Thanksgiving losing streak to 7 games with a 29-22 defeat at the hands of the Packers last week. They still have a healthy lead atop the NFC North, but they will need to play better on both sides of the ball if they expect to go on a deep playoff run.
DaRon Bland makes history: DaRon Bland ran back his 5th pick-six of the season, breaking the NFL record in the process. Bland is just one of the many defensive players for the Cowboys taking massive steps this season, as this Dallas defense continues to prove their potency.
Jaguars stay on top: The Texans and Jaguars squared off in one of the biggest games of the season so far, and Trevor Lawrence answered the call. He threw for 364 passing yards in the Jaguars 24-21 victory over Houston, keeping them in control of their own destiny down the stretch.
Broncos keep rolling: After a 1-5 start, the Broncos have ripped off 5 straight victories, thanks to quality defensive play, and vintage Russell Wilson performances. With just 1 of their final 6 opponents currently in a playoff spot, the Broncos have a very real chance of sneaking into the AFC Wild Card when January rolls around.
Pressure builds on Belichick: The Patriots loss to the lowly Giants has added to the job security rumors surrounding Bill Belichick, and the future hall of famer has nowhere to hide. The Patriots are just 2-9. And with Mac Jones getting routinely benched in second halves, this team will be looking for a new signal caller in the upcoming draft.
The Bills are in trouble: After blowing a pair of double digit leads against the Eagles, the Bills find themselves with a serious uphill battle for postseason qualification. Josh Allen has still yet to win an overtime game, and with the Chiefs and Cowboys on tap for the 6-6 Bills, they will need to be nearly perfect if they expect to play meaningful January football.

There are just 6 weeks to go in the regular season, but there is still plenty of time to build up your bankroll before the playoffs. We are 19-15 so far this season, and securing a favorable line can be the difference between winning and losing in sports betting. Ensure you grab these lines as soon as possible, since as we saw with the Eagles last week, an extra half point swing can be the difference between winning and losing.

Game 1: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

Opening Line: Houston Texans (-3.5)

The Texans and Broncos square off in a pivotal matchup in the AFC Wild Card race. The Broncos are on a 5-game win streak, thanks to solid defense, composure from Russell Wilson, and smart choices from head coach Sean Payton. Their 6-5 record has them level with the Texans for the final playoff spot, and the victor of this game will be afforded valuable breathing room from the chasing pack. Houston hit a home run with the selection of CJ Stroud, who is already in MVP conversations in his rookie season. Stroud has shown poise in the pocket and makes the throws he needs to late in the 4th quarter. A bolstered defense, speared by 3rd overall pick Will Anderson, will be hungry to get their hands on Wilson. And while I expect Houston to edge out a victory, the Broncos will not make it easy. Denver has given up just 16 PPG during their 5-game win streak, having not eclipsed 22 PPG allowed in each of their last 6, after doing so in 4 of the first 5 games of the season. Their defense is still in the bottom half of the league statistically, but their elevated play in recent weeks hasn’t prevented a wide line in this matchup. Denver will be able to keep this a very tight game, and ensure the cover is always within reach. At 3.5 points, I have no choice but to take the road underdog. Considering the last 7 Texans games have been within one score, including 5 within 3 points, this field goal and hook will almost certainly come into play down the stretch.

Pick: Denver Broncos (+3.5)

Game 2: Cleveland Browns at LA Rams

Opening Line: LA Rams (-4)

The Rams and Browns are heading in two very different directions, and the Rams superiority will be emphasized in Week 13. After starting the year 3-6, the Rams have gotten Matthew Stafford back under center, and have won back-to-back games to keep them alive in the playoff race. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been consistently able to get open for their veteran gunslinger. And while a Cleveland defense will prove to be difficult to crack, the Rams will do enough to get the win and cover. The Browns were surging to a playoff appearance thanks to their aforementioned elite defense, and timely play from DeShaun Watson at quarterback. However, an injury to Watson, and a defense who’s given up 29+ in 2 of their last 3 games, has the Browns in danger of slipping out of a playoff position. Just when things couldn’t get worse, Dorian Thompson-Robinson is in concussion protocol, which could result in a PJ Walker start for Cleveland. Regardless of who is under center for the Browns, they lack the offensive capabilities to take advantage of the favorable fields their defense hands over to them. The Rams are at home and should have no problem winning this one by 7 or more points, even if that means a horrendously low scoreline to get them back to .500.

Pick: LA Rams (-4)

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

It is very rare to find the 49ers as such small favorites, but it is just as surprising to see the Eagles as home underdogs in the regular season. These two juggernauts of the NFC will square off on Sunday, with plenty of postseason implications on the line. If the Eagles can win, they all but lock up the number 1 seed in the NFC, with a favorable schedule remaining, and an 11-1 record. For the 49ers, they had a few mid-season injuries, but are back on track thanks to 3 straight wins. A San Francisco victory would leave them just half a game back of the Eagles for the coveted bye. So. needless to say, there is plenty to play for in Week 13. Due to the betting line, there is no way to play this game other than tailing the Philadelphia Eagles. We just saw their grit and determination prevail against the Bills, and another home game against a fellow Super Bowl hopeful will see them emerge victorious once again. The Eagles don’t play to their full potential for the entire 60 minutes, but they rarely fall asleep at the wheel for an entire game too. They will have a few botched drives, but their offense inevitably finds a way to kick itself back to life in the second half. On defense, they are always looking to make big plays, and they often are able to do just that. The 49ers are no pushovers, but they won’t be able to take advantage of a weak Eagles secondary, as their offense stems from short throws and runs up the middle. Philadelphia dominates them in the trenches just like they have so many times this season, en route to an outright victory. Grab these 2.5 points now, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game without a spread when kickoff rolls around on Sunday.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)
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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks

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