Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/21/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 12 opening line report Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles

A wild Week 11 is in the books, effectively ending the season for many of the playoff hopefuls. A notable 2-game gap has opened up between the 7th and 8th seeds in the NFC, while the AFC Wild Card race could not be tighter. Last week, we went 1-2 on our opening line picks, bringing our season record to 18-14. The Steelers kicked Week 11 off with a cover, as we caught the +4 points available early in the week, before Pittsburgh closed at +2, before losing by exactly 3 points. The Jets couldn’t keep it close against the Bills, and the Seahawks lost a close one against the Rams to cap off Week 11. Make sure you lock in the Week 12 picks as soon as possible, as there is no guarantee these valuable lines will still be available when kickoff rolls around. Before jumping into Week 12, here are the biggest storylines from an eventful Week 11.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

  • Down goes Burrow: The Bengals had done a great job at clawing their way out of the AFC basement, but a season ending injury to Joe Burrow has effectively knocked them out of contention. Jake Browning did his best to keep the Bengals in their 34-20 loss to the Ravens. However, with the Steelers and Jaguars on tap for the upcoming weeks, the Bengals are now a huge outside shot to be playing meaningful January football. 
  • Lions find a way: The Lions were down 12 with 4 minutes to go against the lowly Bears but found a way to win. Executing two-minute drills leading to touchdowns in the final 30 seconds of each half allowed them to improve to 8-2 for the first time since 1962. 
  • Chargers choke again: The Chargers Week 11 loss to the Packers sent them to the bottom of the AFC West, despite a +21 point differential. Justin Herbert hasn’t gotten any support from his defense, resulting in the Chargers losing yet another close game. 
  • Tommy DeVito time in New York: Tommy DeVito led the Giants to their second win over the Commanders this season, as New York took advantage of 6 Washington turnovers in their road victory. Daniel Jones is out for the season, giving DeVito the starting job for the rest of the season, and a chance to reignite his NFL career.
  • Bills get back on track: Josh Allen leads the league in both touchdowns and interceptions, throwing for 3 scores and 1 pick in the Bills 32-6 victory over the New York Jets. Zach Wilson has been demoted to QB3, while the Bills set their sights on an AFC Wild Card slot. 
  • Eagles get some revenge: In a Super Bowl rematch, the Eagles held on for a 21-17 win over the defending champions. The Chiefs took a 10-point lead into halftime, but the Eagles defense shut the door in the second half, allowing them to extend their lead atop the NFC. 

Thanksgiving football always brings an exhilarating week of NFL to the dinner table, and this year is no exception. There are several intriguing matchups in a holiday weekend filled with football, and these soon to be heavily bet on games will not have these lines available before kickoff. The value of securing an extra point or two cannot be overstated, as we saw by grabbing the Steelers early in Week 11.

Game 1: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys (-11)

The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 games and cannot afford to drop this NFC East matchup if they want to keep their slim NFC East title hopes alive. Their defense continues to deliver stellar performances week in and week out, and their offense has begun to find their groove, scoring 20+ in each of their last 5 games. However, this line is far too steep against a dangerous Commanders team, as a double digit spread on Thanksgiving will not be covered by the Cowboys. Washington has had issues turning the ball over, and DaRon Bland will be eager to haul in another pick 6 to break the NFL single season record. Sam Howell leads the league in passing yards, and a Washington team with nothing to lose will happily go toe to toe with the Cowboys down the stretch. Their offense has been able to consistently move the ball over the last 2 games. However, after losing the turnover battle a combined 8-0, they have walked away with nothing to show for their efforts. If Washington can even keep the turnovers level with the Cowboys offense, there is no doubt they have the ability to get the ball into the endzone. This one could quickly turn into a shootout, but when it’s all said and done, Washington will finish within single digits of their bitter rivals.

Pick: Washington Commanders (+11)

Game 2: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals 

Opening Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)

The Steelers, despite their plethora of issues, are more than talented enough to oust a deflated Bengals team in Week 12. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada has finally been removed from his position, prompted by a stale Steelers offense that has been unable to capitalize on the opportunities their potent defense has given them. Kenny Pickett will certainly be given a longer leash with Canada’s successor, and this is a great matchup to get back on track in the AFC playoff race. The Bengals will be forced to start Jake Browning at quarterback, and a hungry Steelers defense to get plenty of opportunities to make game changing plays. It hasn’t always been statement wins for Pittsburgh, but this is exactly the kind of game they have consistently found ways to win. The Bengals defense won’t be making life miserable for Pickett and the Steelers offense, and another low scoring, grind-it-out style of game is on the cards. In that style of game, despite the venue, there is no question where my money will be going. Steelers can improve to 7-4 with a win and will likely need to go just .500 for the rest of the way to secure an unlikely playoff position. This spread could easily swell up to a field goal before kickoff, and with just a single point being asked for, the Steelers are a great early pick in Week 12.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)

Game 3: Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles 

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Eagles have continued to dominate the NFL, going 25-3 in Jalen Hurts’ last 28 starts. Their defense is resilient, bending but not breaking, while frequently making the timely plays needed to succeed. On offense, they are far more than just the formidable ‘tush push,’ as Hurts has been able to move the ball well down the field and pick up first downs with his legs when the defense drops into coverage. While these two teams are often thrown into the same tier of contenders, the Bills are from the complete team Philadelphia rolls out on a weekly basis. Josh Allen has led the Bills to a 6-5 record to start the year, leading the league in both touchdowns and interceptions. When he inevitably makes a boneheaded decision at a crucial point of the game, the Eagles won’t need a second invitation to capitalize. The Bills might have gotten back on track with a win over the Jets in Week 11, but they will see their momentum halted in dramatic fashion against the fearsome Eagles. This is a soft spread considering the Eagles will be at home, as it is based on season expectations rather than the evident gap in class that’s been observed throughout the season. I don’t anticipate this spread swelling any higher before kickoff, but there is no doubt the smart money is on the team who consistently wins, and covers spreads like this.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers