NFL Betting Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/14/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 11 opening line report Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks

Week 10 is now behind us, and all of a sudden there are just 8 weeks to go in the regular season. Last week, we went a perfect 3-0 on our opening line picks, moving our season record to 17-13. The Colts started us off with a win in Germany, taking advantage of a poor Patriots offense to win their second straight. The Vikings kept the winning going, winning outright as 2.5-point underdogs thanks to another great game from Joshua Dobbs. Lastly, the Lions took care of business on a last second field goal, narrowly covering the 1.5-point spread. We gave out Lions -1.5 early in the week, but the line was hovering around -3 before kickoff. The value of locking in these bets early in the week can be the difference between winning and losing, so make sure you grab this week’s picks as soon as possible.

Before we get into Week 11, let’s take a look at the highlights from Week 10.

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Vikings aren’t dead yet: In Week 5, the Vikings sat 1-4 before putting Justin Jefferson on the IR. Since then, they’ve rattled off 5 straight wins, the most recent pair being with Joshua Dobbs under center. Now that Jefferson is ready to suit up in Week 11, the Vikings have legitimate playoff hopes heading into the tail end of the season.
Browns take a huge step: The Cleveland Browns beat the Ravens 33-31 after a furious fourth quarter comeback sealed the game. After going 6/20 in the first half, DeShaun Watson went a perfect 14/14 for 134 yards in the second half, closing the gap at the top of the AFC North in the process.
San Fran is back on track: While Christian McCaffrey didn’t extend his touchdown streak, the 49ers snapped their 3-game losing streak with an emphatic 34-3 victory over the Jaguars. Deebo Samuel ran for a touchdown in his return from injury, while Chase Young and Trent Williams made huge impacts in the trenches.
CJ Stroud masterclass: CJ Stroud continues his transformation into a superstar, outfoxing Joe Burrow 30-27 in the Texans Week 10 win. Houston finds themselves in the thick of the playoff race with a record of 5-4, just one season after finishing 3-13-1.
Lions win a shootout: The Lions took down the Chargers 41-38 in a huge Week 10 matchup. The Lions are sitting pretty atop the NFC North, while the Chargers continue to see their playoff hopes slowly evaporate at 4-5.
The Giants are… bad: The Dallas Cowboys showed no mercy against the Giants, winning 49-17 in Week 10, after beating them 40-0 in Week 1. Now that Daniel Jones has been ruled out for the season, the Giants could easily see themselves fail to pick up any more wins this season.
Alarm bells ringing in Buffalo: Buffalo dropped its second straight primetime contest, losing 24-22 to the Broncos on the back of 4 turnovers. The Bills sit 5-5 through the first 10 weeks of the season and will likely need to finish with a 10-7 or better record to make the playoffs. With the Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Dolphins and Chargers still on tap this season, there will be no margin for error if the perennial Super Bowl favorites want to be playing meaningful January football.

Now that Week 10 has been wrapped up, it’s time to look ahead at some tantalizing lines available for the Week 11 slate. We swept out opening line picks last week, can we make it back-to-back sweeps?

Game 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Opening Line: Cleveland Browns (-4)

Both these AFC North rivals sit at 6-3 heading into this season defining Week 11 matchup. The Steelers have consistently found ways to win games they have no business being in, having been outgained in every single game this season, yet finding a way to win 6 of them. Kenny Pickett is certainly not the next Patrick Mahomes, but the Steelers have managed to bend and not break on defense, force timely turnovers, and trust in Pickett to take care of the football. In Cleveland, DeShaun Watson is healthy again. And while the $230 million dollar contract has not aged well, he’s playing solid football and has the Browns within touching distance of their second playoff appearance since 2002. The Browns took down the Ravens and 49ers while winning 4 of their last 5 games. However, in this fierce rivalry, I can’t justify the line of more than a field goal. The difference between a 3- and 4-point line may not seem like a lot, but when 3 games finished with a margin of 3 points, and 3 more finished with a margin of 4 points in Week 10 alone, that extra point will almost certainly come into play. Both defenses are among the best in the league, and points will be at a premium. The Steelers play a much more conservative offense, which will help them prevent turnovers against the Browns. Watson can be counted on for at least one boneheaded play per game, which will be the difference maker. This game will almost certainly come down to a single field goal. and with 4 points in the back pocket, the Steelers are the best bet to open up Week 11 with another win.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)

Game 2: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills (-7)

The Bills continue to be pegged as one of the Super Bowl favorites on an annual basis yet haven’t been able to put it together when it matters most. Once again, they are getting far too much respect, having lost 4 of their last 6 games, with their wins coming by one score over the lowly Buccaneers and Giants. The Jets are far from the best team in the league, coming in with the 30th ranked offense, but their 7th ranked defense allows them to keep it close in most contests. Zach Wilson has his flaws, but he tends to step it up against the best teams in the league. and while the Bills may not exactly fit the bill anymore, it will still be a huge game for the New York faithful. The Jets have only lost 2 games by 7 or more points so far this season, and the BillS simply lack the ruthlessness to put them away. Josh Allen and co. will be playing desperate football, as a loss to New York will all but seal their position outside the postseason. However, that may result in Allen’s turnover tendencies to flare up once again and keep this one closer than it should be. It’s another divisional game that is underestimating the power of a strong defense, and the 7 points on offer with the Jets are too valuable to turn down.

Pick: New York Jets (+7)

Game 3: Seattle Seahawks at LA Rams

Opening Line: Pick ‘em

The Rams and Seahawks square off in an NFC West battle with huge divisional, and playoff, implications. Sitting at 3-6, the Rams need to get a home win against Seattle to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, while the Seahawks will be desperate to keep pace with the 49ers, who take on the Buccaneers, atop the NFC West. Seattle has been less than convincing in recent weeks, but wins are wins, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4. They’ve been making timely plays on defense and taking advantage of what is given to them without turning the ball over. The Rams are expected to get Matthew Stafford back into the lineup, but a well-rounded Seahawks team with real playoff aspirations will not let this one slip away. Geno Smith will look to use a solid game against the Commanders to spring his season back to life after throwing 6 interceptions in the previous 4 games. The Rams still lack a real identity, after trading away all their assets for their successful 2022 Super Bowl run, and they are still a few seasons away from competing with legitimate contenders. The Seahawks will not have forgotten the Rams 30-13 win over them to kick off the season and will get some revenge in Week 11 with a tight, yet convincing victory.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks (PK)

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks

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