NFL Betting Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/7/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 10 opening line report Joshua Dobbs Minnesota Vikings

Week 9 is in the books, and it’s now time to look ahead at the Week 10 opening lines. Last week, we went 1-2 on our picks, bringing our season record to 14-13. The Washington Commanders won outright as 3-point underdogs, but the Rams and Cowboys failed to keep it close in their respective defeats. The favorites took care of business in Week 10, going 11-2 straight up, and 9-4 ATS. Before we jump into a tantalizing Week 10 slate, here’s the biggest storylines from a season defining Week 9 slate.

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Defensive battle in Germany: The Chiefs flexed their defensive muscles across the pond, shutting out the high-flying Dolphins in the first half, while taking a 21-0 lead into the break. The Dolphins made it close, but the Chiefs remain one of the league’s most complete rosters, and they proved it again in Week 9.
Fantastic Dobbs debut: The Vikings picked up Joshua Dobbs after losing Kirk Cousins to a season ending injury, and a first quarter injury to Jaren Hall threw Dobbs straight into the action. His 158 passing yards and 2 touchdowns doesn’t tell the whole story, as Dobbs used his legs in the right moments to secure a 31-28 victory for the Vikings.
Patriots in freefall: Mac Jones continued to struggle in Week 9, losing to the Commanders after Washington traded away their best trade chips at the deadline. A win over Buffalo relieved some pressure in Foxborough, but 5 losses in the last 6 games leaves New England well outside the AFC wild card race.
Ravens are legit: The Ravens were scheduled for a pair of tight matchups against the Lions and Seahawks, but two wins with a combined score of 75-9 has the Ravens firmly atop the AFC North. Lamar Jackson has been responsible with the ball, and a suffocating Ravens defense has them among the Super Bowl favorites.
CJ Stroud dazzles: CJ Stroud’s draft stock appeared to be falling after some suspect cognition tests, but he has been putting together the best rookie campaign in recent memory. His 470 passing yards set a single game rookie record, and the 4-4 Texans have a serious chance at playing meaningful January football, something that hasn’t been a possibility in Houston since the Deshaun Watson era.
Antonio Pierce starts off on the right foot: Josh McDaniels had a woeful year and a half in Las Vegas, and as soon as he was fired the Raiders looked dominant. It will take more than a 30-6 victory over the lowly Giants to prove he belongs. However, if Pierce can put together a decent end of the year in Las Vegas, the Raiders will be set up for a solid next few years.
Eagles are still the boss: The Cowboys put up a valiant effort in Week 9, but the Eagles dominance has started to feel inevitable. It’s not only their ‘Tush Push,’ as they were better on both sides of the ball, and solid coaching from Nick Sirianni ensured they held on for the slim victory.
Bengals are rolling: After starting the year 1-3, the Bengals have now won 4 straight games, including victories over the Seahawks, 49ers, and Bills. A healthy Joe Burrow is clearly one of the best signal callers in the league, and a crowded AFC will result in a tight playoff race for the Super Bowl hopefuls.

Now that Week 9 is in the rearview mirror, it’s time to lock in our Week 10 bets. There is no guarantee these lines will still be available when Sunday rolls around.

Game 1: Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots (In Germany)

Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

This line is straight up disrespectful to the Colts. And once the public tunes into the Week 10 slate, I am certain this will swell up to a field goal. Gardner Minshew is the best backup in the league and has been exceptional at keeping the Colts afloat in the AFC playoff race after losing Anthony Richardson to season ending shoulder surgery. A generous Colts defense has resulted in some suspect losses. However, against an anemic Patriots offense, they will not be punished. The Colts have scored 20+ points in every single game this season, while New England has done it just twice. Mac Jones simply doesn’t have what it takes to keep pace with Minshew. And once the Patriots inevitably find themselves trailing on the scoreboard, they lack the offensive weapons to mount a comeback. New England is bottom 10 in almost every major offensive category. And unless Minshew throws several turnovers, I struggle to imagine this one being much of a contest.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Game 2: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

Opening Line: New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

The Saints are road favorites against the Vikings, thanks to back-to-back wins over the Colts and Bears. Preseason hopes were high in New Orleans, as Derek Carr was expected to complement their elite defense and turn the Saints into legitimate NFC contenders. However, with a record of just 5-4, with losses to the Texans, Packers, Buccaneers, and Jaguars, the Saints will have all they can handle on their trip to Minnesota. The Vikings lost Kirk Cousins to a season ending injury, but Joshua Dobbs was superb in his debut in purple and gold. The Vikings do not deserve to be getting free points at home. Both of these two squads are middling units, and Minnesota matches up nicely with New Orleans. The Vikings have a potent passing attack, and Dobbs scrambling abilities make any 3rd down situation far from a guaranteed stop. When he drops back to pass, a fading Saints defense will have their hands full. On defense, the Vikings are far from perfect, but after giving up just 17 PPG in their last 4 games, they’ll be confident Dobbs can get them over the line with a decent defensive showing. Carr and Taysom Hill bring a unique offensive approach to the field, but it isn’t enough to warrant the status of road favorites. In short, the Vikings are at home, and considering they are getting nearly a field goal, they are a great value bet to kick off the afternoon slate in Week 10.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

Game 3: Detroit Lions at LA Chargers

Opening Line: Detroit Lions (-1.5)
The Lions are sitting atop the NFC North at 6-2, a game and a half ahead of the Minnesota Vikings. Jared Goff has been exceptional and is finally looking like the future superstar he was expected to be when he was drafted first overall in 2016. His 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions are one of the reasons the Lions are edging closer to their first playoff appearance since 2016. And if they can hold onto the division lead, it will be the first playoff game at Ford Field since 1993. They’ve gotten off to a hot start, and the Chargers will not stand a chance when the Lions roll into town. LA may have been able to take advantage of some solid special teams play against the Jets on Monday night. However, with their 4 wins coming against the Bears, Jets, Raiders, and Vikings, they have yet to beat a team currently leading their division. Justin Herbert has been a reliable signal caller, but he’s failed to improve after last year’s breakout campaign, and a 31st ranked defense giving up over 400 yards per game has done him no favors. The Lions are the more complete team on both sides of the ball. And despite their road team status, they have everything they need to emerge from LA with a victory, extending their NFC North lead in the process.

Pick: Detroit Lions (-1.5)

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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks

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