NFL Betting Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 8/24/2023

NFL betting predictions Week 1 Kenny Pickett Pittsburgh Steelers

There is nothing quite like the kickoff of an NFL season. The crisp September air coupled with renewed optimism around the league signifies the beginning of a grueling 18-week season for players and bettors alike. The quarterback carousel is once again in full force, with 13 of the 32 teams starting new leaders at signal caller from a year ago, and these fresh faces will be eager to start off their new careers with a win.

As the season edges closer to kickoff, it is critical to lock in certain Week 1 bets before the lines shift out of our favor. We’ve already seen the Commanders move from -4 to -6.5 point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals, thanks to strong QB play from Sam Howell. The Jaguars are also ready to take advantage of what is looking like a Jonathan Taylor-less Indianapolis Colts, and have seen them swell to 4 point road favorites, crossing critical numbers compared to the 3 point favorites just a few weeks ago.

Week 1 can offer plenty of value if you can identify over or undervalued teams before the oddsmakers can adjust to the new rosters. A strong start to the season can give bettors plenty of ‘house money’ to play with throughout the year, and grabbing these lines at the current odds can be the difference makers between winning and losing in the sports betting industry. The term ‘won or lost by the hook’ is one often thrown around when sports betting, and the value of an extra point of two cannot be overstated. Here are the opening lines and best bets that caught my eye for Week 1.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

49ers at Steelers (Steelers +2.5, 41)

The 49ers are looking to rebound from their NFC Championship loss and start the new season with a victory in Steel City. The Steelers are never an easy out and haven’t finished under .500 since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007. Defense has always been a priority for both of these teams, and it is no surprise that the total of 41 is the second lowest on the opening slate. While I won’t be touching the low total, the 2.5 point spread offers plenty of value. The 49ers have declared Brock Purdy the starting QB for this season, and it remains to be seen how he will handle this pressure. It is one thing to come in and perform as the QB3, with little to no expectations surrounding success. However, now that Purdy is the top dog in San Francisco, he may crack under the pressure. Trying to outplay a defensive line featuring 2021 DPOY T.J. Watt, with Alex Highsmith, coming off 14.5 sacks last season in the backfield, is no easy task. While the Steelers offense still has plenty of question marks surrounding QB Kenny Pickett, Tomlin is always able to get the best out of his players, and I’ll happily grab the free points with the Steelers at home in Week 1. It won’t be a pretty game, but that will play right into the Steel City mentality, as they keep this close or win outright as +130 dogs.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

Jaguars at Colts (Colts +4, 43.5)

The Jaguars strung together 5 straight wins to close out the season and capture the AFC South title, after starting the season 3-8. Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson will be eager to make it back-to-back division titles, and a reeling Indianapolis Colts team on the road is the perfect test to see what this team is made of. A freshly bolstered receiving corps, including Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Zay Jones, is more than capable of getting open for Lawrence, and these divisional games are must wins for the Jaguars if they are looking to compete with the AFC’s best. For the Colts, this season is all about development. They lost 7 straight games to close out last year and have handed over the reins to Anthony Richardson. Richardson hasn’t been given an easy task, as the controversy surrounding star RB Jonathan Taylor has left the offense in disarray. With less than 3 weeks left until the season kicks off, it is still uncertain whether or not Taylor will ever play in a Colts uniform again. The Colts mind’s aren't focused on football. And while they will have their home crowd behind them, it finally feels like it’s the Jaguars time. A solid defense will give Richardson trouble in his first career start, and it will be all hands on deck for a Jaguars team with high hopes this year. Lawrence will cruise to a double digit first half lead, while comfortably covering this 4 point spread, as the Colts get booed off the field in their season opener.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

Texans at Ravens (-9.5, 44.5)

The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have plenty to prove, and any slip ups at home against the lowly Texans could spell disaster before the season even gets going. Jackson suffered from several ailments in the tail end of last season, forcing Baltimore to use Tyler Huntley in the Wild Card Game against the Bengals. The defense has never been an issue in Baltimore, as the team has finished in the top 3 in PPGA in 3 of the last 4 years. Now that Jackson is healthy, and has an improved room of receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr. and first round pick Zay Flowers, there will be no excuses if Jackson can’t deliver in Week 1. For the Texans, a pre-season win total of 5.5 games should tell you all you need to know about this team. Their defense remains in the bottom third of the league. And while the buzz surrounding CJ Stroud may lead them to a few surprise wins, it won’t be in Baltimore Week 1. The 9.5 point spread is the largest on the board, but I’m still more than comfortable laying the points. John Harbaugh pushes his men from opening kickoff until the final whistle, and there will be no letup from the Ravens. They had their 24 game preseason win streak broken by the Commanders in preseason Week 2, but they always start the season strong. Last year in Week 1, they took a 24-3 lead into the 4th quarter and I expect a similar dominant showing against the Texans. A big feel-good win for the Ravens is on the cards to start the 2023-24 season.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Season Record ATS: 0-0

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