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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 5 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/25/2023

NCAA football predictions Week 5 opening line report Deion Sanders Colorado Buffaloes

Welcome to the Doc's Sports NCAA Opening Line Report, where we give you an early look at the upcoming week's important games. I'll analyze the opening line of select games that caught my attention and give a brief analysis of my initial lean. While we didn't win every bet last weekend, we also didn't lose any either, going 2-0-1 ATS.

I'm a big fan of tradition, so I was already disappointed with the dissolution of the Pac-12 after this season. After watching Oregon's head coach keep his first-string into the fourth quarter and go for it on 4th-and-goal up 42-0, I became disappointed again that Coach Prime only has one season in the Pac-12 before leaving for the friendlier confines of the Big 12 (if it'll still be called that after this season). However, Hollywood (and the NCAA) are drooling over the possibility of a first-round playoff game between these 2 schools in next season's expanded playoff format.

However, before the Buffaloes get to that dream scenario, they're going to have to endure a few more nightmares, starting this weekend in hosting a USC team that, statistically speaking, has a better offense than the one that just hung 42 points on them. It's often said that you can learn the true character of a team after they face adversity, so we'll get a chance to see the mettle of Colorado. Likewise with Notre Dame, who lost a heart-breaker to Ohio State and now travels to Durham to take on the surprise of the ACC, Duke.

All lines listed by the team headings are the opening line.

Doc's Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

No. 8 USC vs. Colorado (+24.5/73.5) Sat. Noon EST

I admit I'm not quite sure why this is a Noon EST kickoff, but I also don't understand all the uproar from USC supporters. There are currently eight teams in USC's future conference, the Big Ten, that reside in the Eastern Time Zone. And with Fox's penchant for having marquee games at noon (EST), this is likely to occur regularly. Colorado's Cinderella season finally struck midnight last week and will more than likely do so again when the nation's highest-powered offense (55.0 ppg) comes to Boulder. I won't be looking at a side in this matchup, but I am leaning towards the UNDER, as I think Colorado will continue to struggle to move the ball (199 yards of total offense against the Ducks) but don't think that Trojan head coach Lincoln Riley has the animosity towards Coach Sanders that Oregon's Dan Lanning had and will be less likely to run up the score. PICK: UNDER 73.5

Virginia vs. Boston College (-3/55.5) Sat. 2:00 PM EST

The Virginia Cavaliers are the "feel-good" story of the year, after enduring the tragic shooting that occurred last season, causing the cessation of their season after only 10 games. However, that doesn't mean we can't profit from betting against them, as they have been horrible this season away from the friendly confines of Scott Stadium. Boston College is 6-1 SU against Virginia in their history, with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. PICK: Boston College -3

No. 2 Michigan vs. Nebraska (+18/41) Sat. 3:30 PM EST

Now that Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is once again roaming the sidelines and terrorizing officials (did anyone else notice that his 4-game suspension was served in only 3?), we expect the Wolverines to start gearing up their offense to start trying to win some style points that may have been lost while he was "away". Meanwhile, Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule made a change at QB that has resulted in a 162% increase in points scored. These Big Ten totals are starting to consistently reach 1950's levels. We expect an uptick in scoring here. PICK: OVER 41

Illinois vs. Purdue (-2.5/53.5) Sat. 3:30 PM EST

Illinois's QB Luke Altmyer is a pretty decent QB when not throwing interceptions. The Ole Miss transfer has a 65.3% completion percentage but has tossed 7 INTs to just 4 TDs. The Illini defense has shown signs of improving as well, holding Penn State's strong offensive attack to 383 total yards. I strongly suspect that this line will move and be close to a pick'em by kickoff. Grab the 2.5 points and Illinois now and get some closing line value. PICK: Illinois +2.5

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