NCAA Football Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/18/2023

NCAA football predictions Week 4 opening line report Drake Maye UNC Tar Heels

Welcome to the Doc's Sports NCAA Opening Line Report, where we give you an early look at the upcoming week's important games. I'll analyze the opening line of select games that caught my attention and give a brief analysis of my initial lean. We did quite well last week, going 3-1 in our selections.

One of the things that amazes me about each football season is how they continue to go by faster and faster. After this week is concluded, many teams will be a third of the way through their season. While many questions have yet to be answered, we're starting to get an identity of this year's college football landscape. Things are unsettled in Tuscaloosa, and Colorado is one win away from cashing their preseason win total of 3.5 wins. And while they are many good teams, it doesn't seem that there is the one powerhouse that is head and shoulders above everyone else. The beginning of conference play produced two notable upsets: Missouri taking down No. 15 Kansas State and No. 11 Tennessee losing its 10th straight game at "The Swamp". Both of the nation's premiere college football pregame shows were in Boulder, and they couldn't have asked for a better game. For the first time in eight years, Alabama is not in the Top 10 of the Associated Press college football poll. Of course, they came back to win the National Championship that year, so maybe head coach Nick Saban has the college football world exactly where he wants it.

This upcoming slate of games features six different Top 25 matchups: No. 25 Iowa at No. 7 Penn State, No. 17 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama, No. 24 UCLA at No. 12 Utah, No. 18 Colorado at No. 13 Oregon, No. 16 Oregon State at No. 23 Washington State, and the highlight of the weekend, the Top 10 battle between No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame.

All lines listed by the team headings are the opening line. Doc's Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

No. 3 Florida State at Clemson (+2.5/55) Sat. Noon

I don't think a team this season has had a quicker "fall from grace" than Clemson. They went from being No. 9 in the country to unranked in 12 days, with only one loss, albeit a pretty ugly game against Duke. No. 3 FSU struggled at Boston College, but we think that was only because they were looking ahead to this trip. They have plenty of reasons to take a peek, as FSU has lost seven straight against the Tigers. To stop that streak, the Seminoles bring the nation's 3rd-best scoring offense, averaging 47.3 PPG. This will be an interesting line to watch through the week, as it has already moved down to FSU -1.5 in most spots. A shrinking point spread is fine by us, as we like FSU to scratch their "7-Year Itch" against Clemson and keep rolling toward the College Football Playoff. We think that it will be a classic, high-powered offense, very little defense, ACC battle, great for television viewing. PICK: FSU -2.5 and OVER 55

No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame (+3/54) Sat. 7:30 PM

This was one of the marquee games that sportsbooks set a line for in the summer, initially making the Buckeyes a 7.5-point favorite. However, that was before Notre Dame's new QB, Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman, began playing like a Heisman candidate. Through 4 games, his numbers are 64-90 (71.1%) 1061 yards and 13 TDs to zero interceptions. And besides being undefeated, the Irish have not scored below 41 points yet. While the competition hasn't been the absolute toughest, the fact that Hartman hasn't committed a turnover yet is pretty impressive. Ohio State's defense will be the toughest test Notre Dame will face all year, as they are second in the country in points allowed per game at 6.7 PPG. The Buckeyes' offense had struggled in the first few games, before erupting for 63 points against an overmatched Western Kentucky team. In last year's series opener, Ohio State won 21-10 but failed to cover the 17-point spread. That was a Notre Dame team in disarray. The last 10 times that the Irish have been home dogs, they're 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS. In the movie "Rudy", head coach Dan Devine said "No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around". Pick: Notre Dame +3

No. 17 North Carolina at Pittsburgh (+6.5/50) Sat, 5:00 PM

After two consecutive nonconference defeats, Pittsburgh may be looking forward to their ACC schedule. However, this Panthers squad has some serious issues, the first being a starting QB whose completion percentage is under 50% and a TD-INT ratio of 4-3. Yet head coach Pat Narduzzi is sticking by him. They failed to score a touchdown in their rivalry game against West Virginia. Up next is a North Carolina squad that is averaging 34 PPG. Tar Heel QB Drake Maye's play has also been slightly erratic, with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio. The difference, though, is that he has completed 72.5% of his other throws. Last year UNC won 42-24 in Chapel Hill. I don't think Pitt gets anywhere close to 24. Until the Panther's QB play becomes a bit more stable, they'll likely be a "play against" every weekend. I fully expect this spread to get to 7, if not above, so take it as soon as possible. Pick: North Carolina -6.5

Get college football picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
Free $60 Account Sign Up

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks

Most Recent College Football Handicapping