NCAA Football Predictions: Week 2 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/4/2023

NCAA football predictions Week 2 Opening Line Report Deion Sanders Colorado Buffaloes

Just how big was Colorado's 45-42 victory as a heavily bet 21-point underdog at TCU? Well, the Buffs had been an 8.5-point dog against Nebraska in Week 2, and that line is now Colorado -5 with a total of 65.5 at Circa. Their win total, which had been 3.5, is now 5 at most books. Their National Championship odds were cut in half, from +20000 to +10000.

Do you think the often-used phrase "Good teams win but great teams cover" entered the mind of Penn State coach James Franklin when he called for a QB draw with 12 seconds left on the 5-yard line, instead of taking a knee? The play, which resulted in a touchdown, allowed Penn State to cover the 20.5-point spread and the total to go over the 49-point mark.

It was a great full opening weekend for college football, and Week 2 promises to be even better. First off, we have the aforementioned Nebraska-Colorado matchup. And after the seemingly many indirect shots that new Cornhusker head coach Matt Rhule took at Colorado's Deion Sanders, this could be a chippy game. Texas A&M (-5/49) is traveling to Coral Gables to take on Miami, Texas heads off to Alabama (-7/52.5) in a rematch of last year's thriller. Wisconsin (-3/55.5) plays at Washington State to avenge last year's shocking 17-14 defeat in Madison. Then, of course, there's the battle for the Cy-Hawk trophy, the perennial matchup between Iowa State and Iowa. With the first game being played back in 1894, it's one of the oldest rivalry games in college football. Iowa State will be looking to make it two in a row after they won 10-7 last season.

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Here are some numbers that instantly jumped out at me:

#14 Utah (-6.5/50.5) @ Baylor (Saturday, Noon) This might be a game you'll want to jump on early. Baylor's starting QB Blake Shapen, who had a fine game in the loss to Texas State (21-31, 303 yards 2 TDs 0 INTS), missed chunks of the 2nd-half of that loss and will have an MRI evaluation during the week. Utah, with their own starting QB out, won a very impressive game against Florida, holding the Gators to just 11 points. The Utes expect starting QB Cam Rising to practice and return for this game. As we get closer to game time, I think this number could very easily go north of that magic 7-point mark. The wager that interests me the most, though, is the OVER. Baylor gave up 42 points to a Sun Belt school. The model projects both of these teams to have strong performances, and 50.5 is simply too low. Pick: OVER 50.5 and Utah -6.5, before it goes over 7.

Nebraska @ Colorado (-3/58.5) (Saturday, Noon) One of the biggest movers already, I expect this to have a little more fluctuation before Saturday gets here. While the Buffalo's performance was very impressive, that was nowhere near the same TCU squad that made the National Championship last year. While Nebraska managed only 10 points in their opener against Minnesota, the Golden Gophers were ranked 5th in the country last season in scoring defense. Colorado showed some holes on defense, giving up 262 yards on the ground. That bodes well for a Nebraska squad that just got done running through Minnesota's defense for 181 yards. Vegas is preparing for the "Prime Time Hype", but it doesn't warrant it here. Once again, the wager I'm focusing on is the total, as I believe this will go far UNDER 58.5. Nebraska's defense is a superior unit to TCU's and will provide a much stiffer test for QB Shedeur Sanders to throw against. Pick: UNDER 58.5 and Nebraska on the ML for the upset.

Texas State @ UTSA (-10.5/6.5) While the gambling community has been talking more about Colorado's 21-point underdog victory at TCU, Texas State actually had the biggest upset win. They traveled to Baylor and defeated the Bears 42-31 as 26-point dogs. UTSA, meanwhile, took on Houston in a hard-fought 17-10 loss. UTSA's QB, Frank Harris, had an uncharacteristically bad game, completing only 50% of his passes and throwing three picks. While Texas State got the upset against Baylor, they were outgained by 83 yards, being torched through the air for 416 yards. The Bobcats are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS against the Roadrunners, and we think they'll have a bit of an emotional letdown after being the "Dog of the Day" this past Saturday. Pick: UTSA -10.5

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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 2 Opening Line Report and Picks

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