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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 11/21/2023

NCAA football predictions Week 13 opening line report Deacon Hill Iowa Hawkeyes

Welcome to the Doc's Sports NCAA Opening Line Report, where we give you an early look at the upcoming week's essential games. I will also analyze the opening line of select games that caught my attention and briefly explain my initial lean.

While there are a ton of flaws in the NCAA (stupid 2-year postseason restrictions for new teams pop into my head), one of the few things that N-C-Double-As#&oles get right is scheduling. I'm neither an OU nor Texas fan, but every October, I look forward to the Red River Rivalry. Ditto for the "World's Biggest Outdoor Cocktail Party," the annual game between Florida and Georgia. The NCAA schedulers thoroughly understand the "save the best for last" concept. The three days from Thanksgiving to Saturday are easily the best three days of the regular season in any sport. In this short period, some of the most iconic matchups in all sports take place.

These rivalry games are even better when they affect the national landscape. Michigan versus Ohio State doesn't need hype but certainly gets it when these teams are ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in the country, and a guaranteed spot in the college football playoff hangs in the balance. The matchup in the "Civil War," between No. 5 Oregon and No. 11 Oregon State, marks the highest ranking of both teams since Oregon was No. 5 and Oregon State, with receivers T.J. Houshmandzadeh and some guy named Chad Johnson was No. 8 back in 2000.

Even though those are the only Top 25 matchups of the week, we will still be treated to a plethora of fantastic games. Florida vs. Florida State, the "Iron Bowl" between Alabama and Auburn, Georgia vs. Georgia Tech, which is labeled "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate," to name a few. So, even though this is the final full week of the college football regular season, it should be one of the most exciting.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Mississippi vs. Mississippi St (+10.5/55) Nov. 23rd, 7:30 pm ESPN

Originally from the Northeast, I never really followed these two teams, except for this game. I have a few fond memories of the "Egg Bowl" on Thanksgiving night. Many of those memories involved wild shootouts and high scores. Which makes my focus on the under here seem strange. Mississippi State has struggled on offense this season, averaging only 330 yards and 23.2 points per game. Their defense has not been terrible, though, allowing 354.5 yards and 27.5 points per contest. The fierce rivalry between these schools logically leads to a defensive dominance, as evidenced by the past six games at Mississippi State falling underneath the total. Ole Miss's offense has been substantially better, gaining 468.9 and scoring 36.5 points per game. However, the Rebels have been much less potent on the road in the SEC, only averaging 18 points per game. In addition, Mississippi has gone under the mark in four out of the last six games. The Bulldogs will struggle to score but hold the Rebels to well below their season average. PICK: Under 55

Miami vs. Boston College (+9/48.5) Nov. 24th, Noon ABC

If you don't want to go shopping with your significant other, you are in luck, as there are many good games on Black Friday. How can Doug Flutie's "Hail Mary" pass against the Hurricanes have happened almost 40 years ago? Miami's season, which started with so much promise after knocking off No. 23 Texas A&M in the second week and eventually running to 4-0 and ranked 17th, quickly came off the rails, and the Canes find themselves sitting at 6-5, on a three-game losing streak. They're 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven contests. Furthermore, they're 3-12 ATS over the previous 15 games in the ACC. In the last 10 games where they have been a home underdog of a touchdown or more, Boston College is only 1-9 SU but a solid 6-4 ATS. I'm not calling for another Flutie miracle, but I think BC can stay inside the 9.5 number. PICK: Boston College +9.5

Iowa vs. Nebraska (+2/26.5) Nov. 24th, Noon CBS

If you like your football circa the 1920s, this game will be right up your alley. This total started at 29.5 and has already moved down to 26.5 or 27 across the board. Think about that for a minute: The oddsmakers think both teams will combine for less than four touchdowns. While I'm inclined to agree with them, there is no way I would touch that under. However, Iowa minus 1.5 is very enticing. Nebraska has been inexplicably poor at home this season, posting a 2-4 ATS record. Iowa, meanwhile, is wasting a championship-caliber defense (currently ranked 3rd in the nation at 12.4 ppg) on an offense that would have a tough time scoring on a high school team (124th in the country with 18.5 ppg). The Hawkeyes always play the Cornhuskers tough, as they are 7-1 SU in their last eight meetings. Nebraska's limited offense, which only averages 317.2 yards and 18.7 ppg, will find it rough sledding against a stout Hawkeye stop unit. Since 2011, the last time Iowa lost in Lincoln, they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against Nebraska. Make that 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS after Friday's game. PICK: Iowa -1.5

As you watch all of the games this weekend, our family at Doc’s would like to wish you and your loved ones a joyous holiday season.


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