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NCAA Football Predictions: Bowl Season Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 12/4/2023

NCAA football predictions bowl season opening line report Drew Allar Penn State

Welcome to the Doc's Sports NCAA Opening Line Report, where we give you an early look at the upcoming week's essential games. I will also analyze the opening line of select games that caught my attention and briefly explain my initial lean.

Ninety-nine days. From the last Saturday in August to the first Saturday in December, that is how long the 2023 college football season journey took. This marked the final season of the Pac-12, and they went out in style, sending No. 2 Washington to the CFP and putting a total of eight teams in bowls, the most since 2017. This strong conference showing doesn't account for all the hype and excitement generated by head coach Deion Sanders and his Colorado Buffaloes. For all of you folks who may have rushed out to bet their updated win total of 5.5 after their hot start, sorry for your bad luck. For the ones who bet their original win total of 3.5, congratulations, you're either visionaries or courageous souls.

In typical NCAA fashion, the selection of the playoff teams was met with massive criticism and controversy. Going into the ACC Championship, Florida State was ranked 4th in the CFP poll. Even though they won their game, completing a perfect 13-0 season against three ranked opponents, they were jumped by not one but two one-loss teams: No. 7 Texas and No. 8 Alabama. Alabama made it because they knocked off No. 1 Georgia 27-24 in the SEC Championship game. Texas made it because they won the Big 12 Championship 49-21 over No. 19 Oklahoma St and upset the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa earlier in the season.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

As a Penn State fan, I can empathize with the Seminole Nation, having experienced being snubbed in 1994 (pre-BCS days) and again in 2016. My biggest regret about this situation was that it didn't happen sooner. Multiple times, the CFP flirted with this "Doomsday" scenario, only to have an upset that cleaned up the situation. It's only fitting that the final year of the 4-team playoff model is a complete SNAFU.

While some may say that a 43-game bowl season is too many, I say, "RUBBISH !!" (I told you I was old). This represents 43 more opportunities to wager on our beloved sport. Starting on December 16, we have only 23 more days until we start the long, 8-month hibernation to the next season (cue Green Day's "Wake Me When September Comes").

As the trend of players opting out of bowl games becomes more prevalent, make sure you check in at Doc's to get the latest information to make your intelligent and informed wagers.

Myrtle Beach Bowl- Saturday, December 16th, 11:00 AM ESPN

(6-6) Georgia Southern vs. (9-3) Ohio University (-1.5/54.5)

No, I didn't just pick this game because it's the first bowl game of the season. Having followed James Madison University this season, I became quite familiar with the remaining teams of the Sun Belt conference. Georgia Southern had a dynamic offense this season, averaging 30.9 points a game. Their defense, however, was a different story, giving up 29.6 ppg. Ohio's offense is nothing to write home about (22.9 ppg). They'll win the game and cover because of their 5th-ranked defense, giving up a measly 15.4 ppg. Another strong bet would be the under 54.5, as Ohio scored less than 20 points more times (5) than they scored above 30 (4 games). Start your college bowl season with a 2-team parlay of Ohio and the under.

Famous Toastery Bowl- Monday, December 18th, 2:30 PM ESPN

(7-5) Western Kentucky vs. (6-6) Old Dominion (+1.5/57.5)

Expectations were high this year for Western Kentucky, so the 7-5 record is mildly disappointing. But the vaunted passing attack that was supposed to drive the Hilltoppers this season finally kicked in the latter half of the year. Western Kentucky's senior QB, Austin Reed, averaged 332 yards per game, completed 66.7% of his passes, and tossed 14 TDs to 6 INTs over the last four games. Old Dominion's defense allows 230 yards per game through the air. The Hilltoppers look to bombard the Monarchs, and they'll struggle to stop them.

Valero Alamo Bowl- Thursday, December 28th, 9:15 PM ESPN

(9-3) No. 14 Arizona vs (10-2) No. 12 Oklahoma (+1.5/64.5)

The No. 12 Sooners saw their dream season go off the rails with consecutive losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State in the second half. But remember, this is still the team to hand No. 3 Texas their only loss of the season. Oklahoma's offense, ranked 3rd in the country in scoring, averages 43.2 ppg. Two of No. 14 Arizona's losses came at the hands of the high-powered offenses of No. 2 Washington and USC. The Wildcats gave up an average of 37 ppg in those losses. Oklahoma looks to redeem its season with a quality win (they only played one ranked team all season).

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- Saturday, December 30, Noon ESPN

(10-2) No. 11 Ole Miss vs. (10-2) No. 10 Penn State (-3.5/48.5)

Bad news for No. 11 Mississippi: Over the past two seasons, when No. 10 Penn State is favored, they are 20-0 SU and 16-3-1 ATS. The knock on the Nittany Lions’ head coach is that he can't beat Michigan and Ohio State, but his teams are winning the games they're supposed to. The Rebels have a potent offense, averaging 455 yards a game and 34.8 ppg. They faced two stout defenses this year and lost to Georgia and Alabama. Penn State has had troubles offensively, but their stop-unit compares favorably to those two defeats. Penn State is 3rd in the nation in scoring defense at 11.4 ppg and 12th in scoring with 37.2 ppg. The Nittany Lions' final game of the season saw them absolutely dominate Michigan State, 42-0. The Spartans had 53 total yards, five first downs, and -35 yards rushing, compared to Penn State's 586 total yards on offense. A Penn State win would make them the first team to win all six NY6 bowl games.

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