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NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks Week 9

by Joey House - 10/27/2023

NCAA football picks fading the Top 25 Riley Leonard Duke Blue Devils

Welcome back, folks, to Week 8 of "Fade the Top 25", where we take a look at the action in the Top 25 to find the ranked teams that are primed for a non-cover, either by a straight-up loss or perhaps laying a boatload of points and squeak by.

Week 8 was a rocky week for us, as our picks only went 1-3. No. 10 Penn State, but more specifically, their offense, failed against No. 3 Ohio State yet again and didn't cover the 5.5-point spread in their 20-12 loss. No. 19 LSU looked like a juggernaut against Army, winning 62-0. The hook in the No. 13 Ole Miss-Auburn game kept us from having a .500 record as the Rebels won 28-21 and covered a 6.5-point spread against the Tigers. North Texas provided an entertaining game, losing 35-28 but easily cashing as a 20.5-point dog.

This week is a slightly bizarre one so late in the season, as there are just two Top 25 matchups: No. 20 Duke vs. No. 19 Louisville and No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 13 Utah. In all, 21 of the 25 teams are in action. With all of the smoke that is coming from the camp of No. 2 Michigan regarding sign-stealing, I'm not sure if a bye-week right now is a blessing in disguise or not. Remember, Michigan's head coach Jim Harbaugh served a 3-game suspension at the beginning of the season, and the controversies keep popping up with more regularity than difficult opponents for the Wolverines.

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No. 24 USC vs. California (+10.5/66.5) Sat. 4:00 pm PAC-12 Network

This game will test your mettle as a bettor, as on paper, USC is clearly the better team. But after starting the season with aspirations of a national championship, the Trojans have dropped two in a row, mostly recently to a Utah team still without their all-conference quarterback. The Golden Bears' national title hopes were over in September, and they're just trying to play the role of spoiler. There has already been talk about Trojan QB Caleb Williams potentially setting out the rest of the season to stay healthy for the draft. USC and Cal are both 0-5 ATS in their last five games, but the Trojans are 1-4 ATS against California in the previous five meetings between the schools. A slight lean towards the Golden Bears here.

No. 21 Tennessee vs. Kentucky (+3.5/51) Sat. 7:00 pm ESPN

If Kentucky hadn't slipped up two weeks ago against Missouri, this would have been an exciting Top 25 matchup. However, it still promises to have all of the excitement and fireworks you would imagine from two offenses ranked 44th and 45th in the country. Kentucky has circled this game since last season's 44-6 drubbing against the Vols. Now, 362 days later, they can exact their revenge. Tennessee is a little thin in the wide receiver department since the injury to WR Bru McCoy a few games ago. The Vols have also struggled a bit on the road recently, going 1-4 ATS in their previous five road games. Look for Kentucky to keep this close and Tennessee to win on a last-second field goal.

No. 22 Tulane vs. Rice (+10.5/55) Sat. 4:00 pm ESPN

The only way this game would catch your attention initially is if you were an alumna from either one of these schools, and maybe not even then. But this should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Rice can score in bunches, averaging 34.0 ppg, and Tulane is close at 30.7 ppg. Rice's definitive advantage shines in their passing attack, thanks to their transfer quarterback, J.T. Daniels. With a remarkable journey that's seen him suit up for four different schools in just six years, including USC, Georgia, West Virginia, and now Rice, Daniels has emerged as the spearhead of an aerial assault that averages 319.9 yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns per game. The Green Wave has struggled against the Owls as well, going 1-5 SU in their most recent six tilts. I would not be surprised to see Rice win as an outright dog, but I fully expect them to cover the 10.5-point margin.

No. 20 Duke vs No. 18 Louisville (-6/46) Sat. 3:30 pm ESPN

Full disclosure: I've been a huge "Dukie" this season after their upset of Clemson won me a boatload of in-game money. But this game against Louisville presents a few difficulties that I'm not sure the Blue Devils can overcome. First, Duke has never defeated Louisville, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their previous three meetings. Second, this is the second consecutive week that Duke has played on the road, and road trips can be challenging for college kids. The Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in the second consecutive away game over the past six years. Duke's starting QB, Riley Leonard, was forced to leave last week against Florida State and is questionable for Saturday's game. The Cardinals outgained the Blue Devils an average of 460.7 to 371.6 in total yards in offense. Defensively, it's incredibly close, with Louisville allowing 317.9 and Duke at 315.9. They have two opponents in common: Duke beat NC State 24-3, and Louisville defeated them 13-10. The Cardinals dispatched Notre Dame 33-20, while the Irish handed the Blue Devils their first defeat of the season 21-14. Louisville remains perfect against Duke and will cover the touchdown spread.

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