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NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks Week 8

by Joey House - 10/20/2023

NCAA football picks fading the Top 25 Kyle McCord Ohio State

Welcome back, folks, to Week 8 of "Fade the Top 25", where we take a look at the action in the Top 25 to find the ranked teams that are primed for a non-cover, either by a straight-up loss or perhaps laying a boatload of points and squeak by. Due to a personal emergency last week, we could not get out an article. But we're back and ready to continue our season-long battle with "The Books."

Week 6 saw our picks produce a solid 3-2 record. Louisville, ranked No. 25, won outright as a 6.5-point dog against No. 10 Notre Dame, Virginia Tech easily covered as a 23.5-point underdog against No. 4 Florida State, and Arkansas lost by seven to No. 13 Ole Miss, who was favored by 11.5. The number one-ranked Georgia Bulldogs won and covered easily over Kentucky by a score of 51-13. Texas A&M couldn't pull off the upset I called for against Alabama, losing 26-20.

There are four Top 25 matchups this week. Before the season started, No. 4 Florida State was picked by many pundits to compete for the ACC title, so it comes as no shock to see them in a battle for first place this weekend. The surprise comes from their opponent, No. 16 Duke. There's another heavy-weight fight in the Pac-12 between No. 14 Utah and No. 18 USC. We can only hope that the matchup between No. 17 Tennessee and No. 11 Alabama was as entertaining as last year's 52-49 Vols triumph.

The Big Ten, but more specifically Big Ten East, features the top 3 scoring defenses in the country. Given the lack of difficulty with No. 7 Penn State and No. 2 Michigan's nonconference schedules, their season basically comes down to two games: when they play each other (mid-November) and when they play No. 3 Ohio State. The Nittany Lions' first test of the season comes this Saturday when they travel to the Horseshoe to take on the Buckeyes.

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No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 3 Ohio State (-5.5/45.5) Sat. Noon FOX

The indomitable Yogi Berra once said, "It's like deja vu all over again." That's what this game feels like, as the seventh-ranked Nittany Lions travel to Columbus to take on the third-ranked Buckeyes. Attempting to handicap this game will make your head explode. The current trends, such as scoring offenses and defenses and ATS statistics, all point towards Penn State. History is firmly in the Ohio State camp. PSU's freshman phenom at QB, Drew Allar, has yet to throw an interception in 241 college attempts. However, his road statistics are pedestrian at best: 34-66 for 397 yards and 1 TD. In the only challenging game Ohio State played versus Notre Dame, the Buckeyes offense could only muster 366 yards and two touchdowns. In the most cliche statement you'll ever read from me, this game will come down to who can avoid the significant mistakes: turnovers, a costly penalty that stalls a promising drive. Ohio State wins the game, but like Penn State to cover the 5.5 points. PICK: Penn State +5.5

North Texas vs. No. 23 Tulane (-20.5/63.5) 3:30 pm ESPN2

The Mean Green takes on the Green Wave, and Kermit the Frog couldn't be happier. North Texas can score a ton (35.7 ppg) but sadly can't stop anybody (35.5 ppg allowed). Tulane has clawed their way back into the Top 25 after being knocked out the second week by Ole Miss. Tulane is tough at home, going 9-1 SU in their last 10 games. North Texas plays their best football in the middle of the season, as they are 8-0 ATS in the last couple of Octobers. It is another game where the favorite wins, but the dog covers. PICK: North Texas +20.5

Army vs. No. 19 LSU (-32.5/58.5) 7:30 pm SEC Network

In the last 20 years, Army has been an underdog by four or more touchdowns 10 times and has covered in seven of those games. Conversely, in the last 10 games that LSU has been favored by four or more TDs, they are 3-7 ATS. This game is where the new clock rules enacted this season will help Army cover this gargantuan spread. Army's offense has averaged 185 yards rushing and over 37 minutes of possession in their three road games. Defensively, they have surrendered 25 ppg on the road. LSU has a bye week coming up, followed by Alabama. I think the LSU kids will be focused enough to get a comfortable win, but not an ATS one. PICK: Army +32.5

No. 13 Ole Miss vs. Auburn (+6.5/56.5) 7:00 pm ESPN

Auburn's October gauntlet concludes Saturday when they host No. 13 Ole Miss. This marks their third consecutive matchup against a Top 25 team for the Tigers. They have lost both games straight up but covered a 14-point spread against Georgia and got blown out against LSU as an 11-point dog. Auburn is 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the previous 10 matchups between these two squads. Last year, Ole Miss won 48-34 but failed to cover the 15.5-point spread. The Rebels have a high-powered offense, averaging 41.7 ppg, 8th-best in the country. Statistically speaking, Mississippi blows Auburn out of the water. But for some reason, the Rebels struggle with the Tigers, and this year will be no different. PICK: Auburn +6.5

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