Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks Week 5

by Joey House - 9/29/2023

NCAA football picks fading Top 25 Drew Allar Penn State

Due to technical difficulties, last week's "Fading the Top 25" went unpublished. While the picks wouldn't have been a clean sweep, we would not have suffered a loss, either, as our picks were 2-0-2. We would have won with Arkansas (+18) at No. 13 LSU (34-31 LSU win) and No. 21 Washington State (+3) vs. No. 14 Oregon State (38-35 Wash. St win) and pushed on the Rutgers (+24) at No. 2 Michigan and pushed with #6 Ohio State at #9 Notre Dame (+3).

Because of the large amount of Top 25 matchups last week, the straight-up win/loss record is slightly skewed, as there were six different matchups between these teams. They went 19-6 SU, with all six losses occurring in the Top 25 contests. Their ATS record was 14-9-2 last week.

Five teams in the nation are 4-0 ATS, and three of them are Top 25 squads: Penn State, Oklahoma, and Oregon. Interestingly enough, I am fading each of those squads this week, so we'll see how that pans out.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

No. 6 Penn State (-26.5/46.5) at Northwestern Sat. Noon BTN

One of the aforementioned perfect ATS teams, the Nittany Lions almost lost their first game of the season ATS, scoring on a last-second QB draw that stirred a little controversy in the football world. Penn State has been a notoriously poor team the game before a bye. Over their last 30 games before a week off, they have a record of 18-12 SU but only 12-18 ATS. Narrowing this down to road games before a bye, over the last 11 contests, their record is 4-7 SU but 3-8 ATS. Northwestern is improving as well, beating Minnesota last week 37-34 as 11-point dogs. I see this as being a low-scoring affair, with Penn State keeping its consecutive games of scoring 30 points or more alive, but not covering the 26.5-point spread. PICK: Northwestern +26.5

No. 1 Georgia (-14.5/45.5) at Auburn Sat. 3:30 PM CBS

This one gives me a little pause, as the public has been overwhelmingly on Auburn as well. The line opened at Georgia -18 and has been bet down to -14.5. The Bulldogs are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 visits to Auburn. I just think that laying over two touchdowns on the road against a team that has been holding opposing offenses to 298.5 ypg and giving up 16 ppg is a stretch. Throw in the fact that it's a conference game, and I think that Auburn keeps it close. PICK: Auburn +14.5

No. 9 Oregon (-24.5/61.5) at Stanford Sat. 6:30 PM PAC 12 TV

The Ducks are in a very similar situation as Penn State this week. They had a dominant win in an emotional game (42-6 over No. 19 Colorado) and play on the road as more than a 3-touchdown road conference favorite before a bye week. Their record before a bye week is also similar to the Nittany Lions, going 12-6 SU but just 8-10 ATS. They've played Stanford twice in this scenario, losing each game outright AND against the spread. Meanwhile, Stanford is 11-9 SU and ATS in their games-before-a-bye scenario. PICK: Stanford +24.5

Iowa State at No. 14 Oklahoma (-19.5/48.5) Sat. 7:00 PM FS1

This is another situational trend, as No. 14 Oklahoma plays No. 3 Texas next week. In the last five seasons, the Sooners are 1-4 ATS the week before the "Red River Rivalry". The Cyclones have been slightly bewildering this year, playing Iowa very tough and beating Oklahoma State, but then also only scoring one touchdown against the Ohio Bobcats. Iowa State has gone into Norman before and emerged victorious as a 31-point underdog, back in 2017. We're not making that claim but think their passing attack can keep them close to the Sooners. PICK: Iowa State +19.5

No. 24 Kansas at No. 3 Texas (-16.5/61.5) Sat. 3:30 PM ABC

The first thing I checked was Texas's record before their game against Oklahoma, and the past five seasons they were 3-2 in the week before their annual showdown against the Sooners. Kansas is a very solid team, with an offense that averages 463 ypg and 37.8 ppg. The Longhorns are 8-2 SU in the last 10 games against Kansas but are only 3-7 ATS during that stretch. This spread is much too large with the Sooners on deck for the Longhorns. PICK: Kansas +16.5

Get college football picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent College Football Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers