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NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks

by Joey House - 9/1/2023

NCAA football picks fading the Top 25 Sean Dollars Nevada Wolf Pack

Welcome back to the latest edition of Doc's Sports Fading the Top 25, where take a gambler's perspective into the successes and failures of the fabled college football teams that make up the Top 25. While John Q. Public may only be concerned if these teams win or lose straight up, the life of a gambler is made up of point spreads, fades, and back-door covers. Of course, we'll keep track of the normal wins and losses for this group of teams, but we'll also dive deep into the "Against The Spread" (ATS) records to see if we can gain any insight that could help us cash tickets and show the books who's boss around these here parts.

As every savvy sports bettor knows, the squares like the favorite and the over. For that very reason, we will try to be as contrarian in our selections as much as possible. Vegas wasn't built on winners, and it's always better to be on the side of the sportsbook than the side of the losing public. However, we won't pigeonhole ourselves with just underdogs if we see value in a Top 25 favorite. Our goal is to provide you with the best, most comprehensive analysis possible, not just be a mouthpiece for the disregarded.

In addition to Doc's highly successful Public Action Report, which monitors bizarre line movements, we will be issuing several plays within the Top 25, to provide you with just another weapon in your war with the sportsbook.

If these "weapons of mass destruction" are not enough in the campaign against your sportsbook, you can always enlist the help of any one of Doc's hugely respected handicappers in your quest to beat your bookie.

Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Without further ado, let's take a look at the Week 1 slate.

Nevada +38.5/67.5 @ #6 USC (Saturday, Sept. 2nd, 6:30 PM)

If you took a quick look at USC's schedule, you might think they moved into the Mountain West Conference, as they opened up with San Jose State last Saturday. However, that's fine with Nevada, which features several Pac-12 transfers that should help them stay close. With an experienced offensive line, expect a heavy dose of former Oregon RB Sean Dollars and ex-California RB Ashton Hayes. QB Brendon Lewis, who started 12 games at Colorado, will be throwing to a vastly improved receiving corps. If USC's first game showed anything, it's that their defense is susceptible to the run (198 yards on 27 attempts, 7.3 yards per carry). Being the public team they are, the line on the Trojans has gone up from an opening of -35 to the its current -38.5. We'll gladly take those points even though the Wolf Pack won't need them. Pick: Nevada +38.5

#18 Oregon State @ San Jose State +16.5/54.5 (Sunday, Sept. 3rd, 3:30 PM)

This is rare territory for the Beavers, as they've only been double-digit road favorites nine times in the last 28 years. While they're 7-2 SU in those contests, they're only 5-4 ATS over that period. Furthermore, they're 1-2 in these games in September, when they're more likely to play somebody a notch or two down in class. Oregon State is excited to unveil former Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei who posted a 22-6 record with 5,681 yards and 36 TDs in his three years there. However, he was prone to turnovers, as he threw 17 interceptions as well. The Spartans excelled in that category last season with 14 picks, double of the 7 they threw as an offense. Oregon State repeats USC's Week 0 results: Win the game but fail to cover. Pick: San Jose State +16.5

Boise State +14.5/58.5 @ #10 Washington (Saturday, Sept. 2nd, 3:30 PM)

In yet another MWC vs. Pac-12 matchup, Boise State invades Husky Stadium. This is a classic reverse line move, as the overwhelming money is coming in on Washington, yet the spread moved from 15.5, a few weeks ago, to 14.5. The Broncos feature a dual-threat QB in Taylene Green and it was a dual-threat QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson of UCLA, that handed the Huskies one of their losses last season. Boise also returns their top 2 RBs (9 offensive starters in all) in what should be the deepest running back room in the MWC. Boise matches up very well here with the Huskies, and this could be the upset of the weekend. I'm not predicting that, but I do predict that the spread will drop down to 14, so get the 2 touchdowns with the hook while you can. Pick: Boise State +14.5

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