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NBA Championship Futures: Longshots with Betting Value

by Spencer Toth - 4/7/2023

NBA Championship futures longshot bets with value Kawhi Leonard Los Angeles Clippers

The NBA Playoffs are just days away, and securing additional value on the longshots is critical. The favorites offer a more realistic chance to cash in on an NBA future, but as we saw with UConn’s +2200 payout in March Madness, the payout on the underdogs can leave bettors well in the green. In the NBA, the board is very top heavy, with just 6 teams coming in at +1000 or shorter, with the Bucks leading the way at +280. There is lots of money to be made on the rest of the field, and spreading out your bankroll across a few longshots can still leave you up dozens of units at the season's end. Let’s dive in.

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Memphis Grizzlies +1700

Despite their second straight 2nd place finish, the Grizzlies are still coming into the postseason with a hefty price tag attached to a championship run. They’ve been plagued with injuries, as Steven Adams, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Ja Morant have all missed considerable time this season, yet still find themselves with home court advantage for at least the first 2 rounds. The Grizzlies sport a league leading 35-6 home record. And regardless of who steps on the court, they have managed to find ways to win. They have all the pieces needed to make a deep championship run; A superstar in Morant, a DPOY candidate in Jackson, shooters with Bane and Luke Kennard, and not to mention their second ranked defense. The one knock against the Grizzlies is the lack of playoff experience on their roster. The Grizzlies first round victory last season was their first, and only, playoff win since 2015. Despite this, the Grizzlies are being seriously undervalued here. In a wide-open Western Conference, there is no reason to shy away from sprinkling on the Grizzlies, as I expect this price to fall quickly once they get going in the postseason.

LA Lakers: +2200

The Lakers have turned their season around, charging up the standings over the last few months. On February 10, the Lakers were 25-31 and languishing in 13th place in the West. Their title odds were in the +7000 range, and there was no hope in sight. However, a 16-8 run since has launched them into 7th place, and the Lakers have put themselves in a good position to qualify for the postseason. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have managed to stay on the court, and the addition of D’Angelo Russell has played a major part in their resurgence. There will always be immense pressure to deliver in LA. And while James did bring home a championship 3 years ago, the Lakers have yet to win a playoff series since. There is no doubt that the Lakers have some serious upset potential from their low seed, but I just can’t get behind them at this price. The health of James and Davis will always be a concern, and it seems like a real stretch of the imagination to expect both to stay healthy throughout a lengthy postseason. The Western Conference is as wide open as it’s ever been, but there are better options, at better prices than the Lakers.

LA Clippers: +2300

Speaking of better options, you don’t have to look far as the LA Clippers are coming in just after their crosstown rivals. Kawhi Leonard has already proven he can lead teams to championships, as he is one of three players to win a Finals MVP with two different teams. The supporting cast in LA is more than capable of helping Leonard along the way, and co-star Paul George will have a fantastic opportunity to get the playoff monkey off his back. The Clippers made solid acquisitions at the trade deadline, picking up Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, and Mason Plumlee. All 3 have settled in nicely, and the Clippers suddenly have one of the deepest rosters in the league. Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook could be second options on many NBA teams, but find themselves further down the pecking order in LA. The Clippers are one of my favorite longshots in the NBA and haven’t been at this price in several months. At +2300, you can’t go wrong betting on a team with so many positives in their favor.

Cleveland Cavaliers: +4000

The Eastern Conference is extremely top heavy, with the Bucks (+280), Celtics (+325) and 76ers (+1000) leading the way, and the Cavaliers coming in as afterthoughts. The Cavaliers are just 1.5 games back of the 76ers for third place, and 7.5 games back of the league leading Bucks. These odds imply they are a tier below the Eastern Conference leaders. And while I’m not saying they are on the same level as the Bucks or Celtics, the Cavs are coming in with a fighting chance. Donovan Mitchell was given the keys to this franchise after leaving Utah and has not squandered that opportunity. Highlighted by a 71-point outburst in January, Mitchell is averaging a career high 28.3 PPG in his first season with the Cavaliers. Mitchell is a calming presence at just 26 years old, as Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland are all 24 or younger. Youthful teams tend to shrink in the postseason, and the Cavaliers will have plenty of doubters before the playoffs tip off. However, they have the star, they have the defense, and they have the energy to make a deep playoff run. Having to go through two of the 76ers, Celtics and Bucks will be no easy task. However, in an otherwise barren East, the Cavs have the potential to make waves and provide some excellent hedging opportunities at the very least. At this price, I’m a buyer.

Sacramento Kings +6000

The Kings have already succeeded. They emphatically broke their 16-year playoff drought and have secured 3rd place in the West. Their 121.3 PPG is leading the league, and the Kings will be confident they can turn their first playoff appearance in 16 years into their first Finals appearance in 71 years. De’Aaron Fox leads the way with 25.2 PPG, but the heaps of scoring comes from up and down the lineup, with 6 players averaging 12+ PPG this season. The high tempo offense has propelled the Kings to the conference’s best road record (25-15), and they will never be out of a game. The concern surrounding Sacramento, despite their excellent regular season, is the fact they gave up the 5th most PPG this season. While offense has allowed them to win games, it’ll be their defense that costs them a championship. There have been plenty of positives for Sacramento this season, but the feel-good story will end with a short postseason. Their defensive holes will cost them victories, and hungry playoff teams will ensure this +6000 bet doesn’t come anywhere close to cashing.

Miami Heat: +11000

It’s easy to forget the Heat were seconds away from beating the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Final last season and made a Finals appearance just 3 seasons ago. It is no secret as to why the Heat are successful, and that is their slow-paced offense, and their hungry defense. Jimmy Butler will keep doing what he does best on the offensive end. However, if this team is to be successful in the postseason, it will be on the other end of the court. They are a deserved long shot, but there is no better +11000 bet in sports than a Miami Heat future. Their slow pace has been successful in the past, and they’ve beaten the 76ers, Bucks, and Celtics in the postseason over the last 3 seasons. It's rare to find this much value on a team with the playoff experience necessary to succeed. While there is certainly risk with a +11000 bet, the Heat are more than capable of making waves in a competitive Eastern Conference.

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