Monday Night Football Predictions: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by Mike Allen - 9/20/2023

Monday Night Football predictions Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Baker Mayfield

After the first two weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season, we are rapidly gaining knowledge as we view the games, read the articles, watch videos, and we can't forget about listening to some old-school talk radio.

It's very tempting as we get into Week 3 to start thinking we know more than we actually do. That's the true definition of stupidity. It isn't simply not knowing. That's ignorance. Thinking you know or, even worse, believing you know a subject better than you do…

Well, you get it. I bring this up because it's just about that time of year. I like Week 1 because we have far more time to prepare for it than any other. Week 2 isn't too bad. We can't spot the overreactions and attack those lines.

Week 3 is when we tend to get ahead of ourselves. With that said, let's go ahead and take a look at the betting odds for the Monday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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Betting Odds

Eagles @ Buccaneers Point Spread

Philadelphia: -5 (-110)

Tampa Bay: +5 (-110)

Early money has come in on the Tampa Bay Bucs. That has moved the line down a bit from (+5.5). If you like Philly, getting to number down to five doesn't do much for you. An NFL game ends with an exact difference of five points less than 4% of the time. There is a difference of 17 more often than we see five points.

If you like the Bucs, though, I don’t think you missed the boat.

Moneyline

Philadelphia: -240

Tampa Bay: +200

The Philadelphia Eagles moneyline betting odds of (-240) are at or near the top of 99% of bettors' respective ranges for a single wager. If you're hammering (-300), then you better be able to afford to lose, and those guys can.

People like you and I, however, aren’t inferior bettors, but we do need to play the game with a different style.

If you like the Bucs' to win outright, a 2-1 payout is available. However, remember what we talked about earlier. One team has exceeded expectations, and the other fell short. Expectations tend to lead to suffering.

The biggest reason I can't pull the trigger on Tampa to win outright is because the Eagles are coming off 10 days of rest.

Point Total

Over 45.5: -105

Under 45.5: -115

I think the sportsbooks have this one lined correctly, and I am staying away from betting a lot of totals until our sample size increases. The first two weeks have been stark contrasts of one another as far as point totals are concerned.

Analysis

Both offenses are right at 5.0 yards/play so far this season.

All of Philly’s success moving the ball has been on the ground. They are a top-five rushing offense and a bottom-five passing offense, statistically.

The Bucs are more or less the opposite. They are top-10 in passing but rank in the bottom-10 in rushing stats. A big part of this success has been the resurgence of Baker Mayfield. He clearly needed a fresh start, and getting out of Cleveland is generally not the worst idea. Just ask anyone who has ever got out of Cleveland.

The guy has certainly matured, and it has shown in his performance. He has thrown zero interceptions so far this season.

How do the defenses stack up? Surprisingly, the Tampa Bay Bucs have been better on that side of the ball. The Eagles rank 28th in the league in opponent’s yards/play.

At the end of the day, they are still a 2-0 team who won against decent competition, playing on 10 days of rest and preparation.

Prediction

I will take the Philadelphia Eagles in this spot on the moneyline. The No. 1 reason they have given up so many passing yards and thus raised their overall opponent's yards/play stat is because they have forced their opponents into throwing the ball.

It hasn't been pretty, but it has been an effective strategy. The Eagles' opponents have run the ball only 31 times in two games while throwing the ball 98 times.

I am staying away from the point spread because of said style, and the explosive ability of Mayfield and his wideouts could lead to a meaningless touchdown late in the game.

Pick: Eagles Moneyline (-240)

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