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Monday Night Football Picks: 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings

by Mike Allen - 10/19/2023

Monday Night Football predictions San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings Brock Purdy

I could really use a break from the San Francisco 49ers. The wound is still so fresh. I thought teasing them down to a pick’em with Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson was a good idea.

So much happened in the Browns' favor. Their Hall of Fame left tackle, Trent Williams, had his leg rolled on and then had to defend Brock Purdy's blind side against one of, if not the best, edge rusher in the league, Myles Garrett.

Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey left the game early and didn't return. There were two missed field goals, including the potential game-winner from just 41 yards. The calls went the other way down the stretch.

I am not complaining. It is what it is. It's imperative, though, that we take note it took a perfect storm to beat them. The Browns' backup quarterback played well above expectations. Cleveland has the best defense in football.

It's not easy taking down the San Francisco 49ers, even when they are this banged up on offense. It will require even more to hand them their second loss in a row.

Can Captain Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings do it? It is quite the ask, but maybe they can at least keep the final score within a touchdown.

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49ers vs Vikings Betting Odds

Point Spread

San Francisco: -6.5 (-115)

Minnesota: +6.5 (-105)

I hoped we would hear some bad news about Christian McCaffrey's rib/oblique injury. I say this because that would bring the point spread down a bit. The Niners are deep at running back, and the backups are fresh and hungry, with McCaffrey taking so many snaps.

I like betting on this Niners team, and I think this is a good spot because, without the injury concerns, they are more than a touchdown favorite.

Moneyline

San Francisco: -300

Minnesota: +250

San Francisco's kryptonite is a team like the Cleveland Browns or possibly the Baltimore Ravens, not the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings' defense ranks a respectable 12th in yards/play allowed, but they fail when it counts on third down and in the red zone, where they rank 25th and 26th in the NFL.

I can't get behind their moneyline here, and the Niners are too pricey.

Point Total

Over 42: -110

Under 42: -110

If I weren't 0-3 on point totals this year, all being overs, I would lean towards the over in this game. The Vikings' strength is their passing game. So, a late touchdown to make it 27-20 is possible.

49ers vs Vikings Analysis

Let's focus now on the Minnesota Vikings, who notoriously overachieved last season. Now, they are underachieving. Or are they?

I don't think many people had them projected to be 2-4 right now and definitely not to be 0-3 at home. That number worries me, because 0-4, of course, seems even more strange. They were close losses, though, and against pretty good teams.

The 49ers aren't a pretty good team, though. They are a great team. Even after last week, I have them alone atop their own tier in the NFL.

I read just 15 minutes ago that Samuel said today that he hurt his shoulder on the first play of the game last week when he took a shot to the bicep. It was the first stinger he'd ever had, and it still hurts quite a bit. He also stated, however, that the pain had improved significantly since it happened.

The word on Williams is that it was not a high ankle sprain. So, I think he will probably play as well.

Nobody runs the ball more than the Niners, and no other team throws the ball more often than the Vikings. I don't think San Francisco will change up their strategy even with McCaffrey on the shelf, and the Vikings have no choice but to throw the ball. Their running game is virtually non-existent.

With their star wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, stuck on the sidelines again this week, I think the Vikings keep it close early on but, like almost everyone else, tires late in the game to the hopeful front-running 49ers.

49ers vs Vikings Prediction

San Francisco (-6.5)

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