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Monday Night Football Picks: New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

by Mike Allen - 9/13/2023

Monday Night Football picks Week 2 Saints vs. Panthers Derek Carr

Week 1 NFL action is now 100% in the rearview. It seemed to last a month or more because handicappers broke down those matchups for some time. We did pretty well on our picks.

We had the Lions and the Cowboys come through for us, but our prediction of the Bills to win outright quickly screeched to a halt when the Jets took a punt to the house for the overtime walk-off win.

Our teaser of the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets hit with ease.

Bragging about the new turf in New York was a bad omen, though. I'm sorry, Aaron Rodgers. Nobody wanted to see that.

We can't help but feel Week 1 NFL betting is cheating a bit. None of us realize this until it's time to make more winning predictions with barely a fraction of the time to prepare as we had in the first week of the season.

What makes Week 2 a bit tricky is that we have to decipher which reactions from the betting market are legit and which are actually overreactions.

You obviously have a lot of 1-0 teams playing 0-1 teams, and historically, which of the two has won 59% of those Week 2 games? Yup, the 0-1 teams are, as you might imagine, a bit more motivated and don't want to start the season 0-2.

There are situations, however, where we see the true colors of some NFL squads. A bad first game can have many different explanations. However, sometimes, we have to call it right down the middle.

Let’s check the betting odds for this early-season NFC South matchup and make a pick!

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Saints at Panthers Betting Odds

New Orleans: -3 (-115)

Carolina: +3 (-110)

Moneyline

New Orleans: -165

Carolina: +145

Point Total

Over 40: -112

Under 40: -108

Saints at Panthers Analysis

The New Orleans Saints are 1-0. Their defense looked incredible in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. The secondary, in particular, was stingy and even had three interceptions before the final horn.

It was hard for the Titans' offense to stay on the field. They were just 2-12 on third downs against the Saints. Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill had a terrible day overall, throwing for fewer than 200 yards in a loss, and we already mentioned the three picks.

New Orleans on offense was efficient through the air, as new quarterback Derek Carr went 22/33 for over 300 yards. They did not establish the run, however. That's something you can't get away with from week to week and expect to win games in the NFL.

How about the Carolina Panthers? They looked like garbage in the first week of the NFL season.

I guess the defense wasn't that bad, but rookie quarterback Bryce Young had a rough day, throwing for only 146 yards with two interceptions. The Saints had three INTs on the veteran Tannehill. What will Marshon Lattimore and company do against a guy in his second NFL game?

A lot of people are interested in the under in this game, but I believe it's priced accordingly. The point spread and the moneyline, though, are more appealing. The spread has been bet up from 1.5 to now 3 points. So, if the value isn't all gone yet, it will be soon.

Carr and the Saints have the better overall team. I project them to win the NFC South, and Carolina stinks. With that said, sharp bettors hit this line early and hard. The point spread is now a bit out of reach.

Saints at Panthers Prediction

I like the moneyline on the Saints here for (-165). Rookie quarterbacks don't suddenly shed their first-year status after just one game. Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks of all time and may be the best statistically. He also set the record for interceptions thrown in a season when he was a rookie with the Colts.

It will be a long season for the Panthers' Young, and things will worsen before they improve.

I love the Queen City of Charlotte. It's the home of the Carolina Panthers. I've lived right by the stadium. My best friends live there.

I've been to games, though. It isn't a raucous atmosphere at all. The fan base just isn't there, and many folks already had a favorite team when the league expanded with the Panthers. I don't believe that home-field advantage should be worth three points for the Carolina Panthers.

Pick: Saints -165

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