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Monday Night Football Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals

by Mike Allen - 12/1/2023

Monday Night Football picks for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals Tee Higgins

This Monday Night, we get to see what should have been a marquee matchup in the AFC. The Bengals without their quarterback, though, just aren’t the same team.

I didn't have them rated that highly to begin with. They can't run the ball to save their life. What does that tell you? You have maybe the best passer of the football under center. He makes very good decisions, and his arm is incredibly dangerous.

The Bengals only had a few games this year when everyone was fairly healthy. They looked good, but they still couldn’t run the ball consistently.

On the other side of the ball, the Jacksonville Jaguars are leading the AFC South by 2 games with a record of 8-3. This team has quietly done what they had to do.

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Jaguars vs Bengals Betting Odds

Point Spread

Jaguars: -8.5 (-110)

Bengals: +8.5 (+110) 

Wow, who would have thought the Cincinnati Bengals would be more than a touchdown underdog at home to anyone? I know Trevor Lawrence has his team clicking well, but this number is huge.

Joe Burrow for MVP! Isn’t it obvious?

What would the betting line for this game be if he was playing? Usually, a starting quarterback is worth 7 points or so, but in this case, I want to say his absence is worth more than two touchdowns. I would have the Bengals at (-4.5).

I guess it’s arguable if he is the most valuable player in the league. However, if we pose the question of who is the most valuable player to their team, Burrow has my vote 10 out of 10 times.

Moneyline

Jaguars: -420

Bengals: +320

Some people might want to put the Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline into a parlay. I wouldn’t recommend it, though.

Point Total

Over 38: -110

Under 38: -110

Neither defense is that strong. I understand this is a primetime game and the unders have been hitting at a massive clip so far this season. I can't help but be interested in playing the over 38 points here.

Each team ranks in the bottom third of the league over the last three games, allowing 5.0 yards per rush attempt. That isn't a good look for these defenses. Get this next stat, though.

The Bengals and the Jaguars rank 31st and 32nd in the NFL, respectively, in yards per pass attempt allowed over their previous three games played. Cincinnati is giving up almost 9 yards per pass attempt!

Jaguars vs Bengals Betting Analysis

Do we take the value play on the home team here? I can’t help but think that the Bengals are getting disrespected here. The Jaguars don’t play that well in the cold. The game-time temperature should be about 40 degrees but with calm conditions.

This betting line opened up at (-6.5) for the Jags, and after 94% of the money has poured in on the favorites, here we are at (-8.5). Do we want the Jaguars at such a high number? The 6.5 would have been nice, but it's long gone now.

Coming back to potentially playing the over 38, the Bengals are actually averaging 0.6 yards more per play on offense over their previous three games than they were all year. I understand that they only put up 10 points against the Steelers this past Sunday, but Pittsburgh has been holding teams to incredibly low point totals all season.

We have bottom-third defenses and top-third-ranked offenses over the previous three games. Let’s go over the 38 points.

Jaguars vs Bengals Betting Predictions

I see this game playing out a lot like a Jaguars AFC South game. When they played teams in their division, it turned into a shootout pretty quickly. I mention those teams because they are playing with either a backup quarterback because of an injury or because the starter got benched.

Let’s hope for a final score of 27-13 or a little better.

Pick: Over 38 points (-110)

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