Monday Night Football Picks: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills just won’t go away. At least they are finally gaining some consistency. I fret because I haven’t been able to get this team right all year. It started with their matchup with the New York Jets in Week 1.
I don't think any team has been featured in primetime any more than the Bills. Here they are again on Monday Night Football, hosting the Denver Broncos. Sean Payton is starting to make his presence felt in the Mile High City as the Broncos will be looking for their 3rd win in a row.
They are 3-2 since the infamous 70-point game against the Miami Dolphins. Even if he is weird, the Broncos have an incredibly experienced and skilled quarterback leading them. Russell Wilson knows how to win football games, and it appears he's beginning to click with his head coach.
Denver is coming off their biggest win of the season, but thankfully, for them, it came before their bye week. I would have faded them hard last week should they have played coming off such a massive victory.
Let’s check the betting odds for this Monday night matchup in Buffalo and make a prediction.
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Broncos vs Bills Betting Odds
Point Spread
Denver: +7.5
Buffalo: -7.5
How on earth can you back the Bills in this spot? Maybe the Broncos are sluggish in the first half. We will have to check that line. It looks like you can get the Bills first-half line at (-4). There can be some other good value out there. We might come back to those first-half odds.
Moneyline
Denver: +290
Buffalo: -360
Even though the Bills have dropped and are on the verge of going 5-5 on the year, they are one score away from being undefeated at home. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars were able to come into Buffalo and get the W.
Maybe if we were playing in Denver, I would get behind a Broncos moneyline, but the one consistent thing about the Bills is that they play their best football on their home field.
Point Total
Over 47: -110
Under 47: -110
Wow, this is a very high total for today's standards in the NFL. The Denver Broncos haven't even given up that many points over their previous three games. That defense is allowing just 15/game over that span.
Buffalo manages to score points because Josh Allen and his receiving corps are that talented. They cannot run the ball this year, though, especially lately. If Allen is their leading rusher, it’s a bad sign.
Broncos vs Bills Betting Analysis
Outside of the abysmal showing in a loss to the New England Patriots, The Bills defense has stepped it up as of late as well. Holding the Giants to 9 points isn't the same look as when the Broncos held the Chiefs to 9.
We could have another primetime under in this one. Both teams rank 30th or worse in opponents' yards per carry. We know both QBs can sling it.
I think we need to come back to that first-half line on the Bills. The first drive for the Broncos is always scripted, and they generally do well. I am concerned about that, but one thing about the Buffalo Bills is that they own the red zone.
As bad as they can be in the middle of the field, they lock it down when it matters. They rank at the top of the league on offense, as well, scoring touchdowns inside the 20.
Broncos vs Bills Betting Prediction
One of the biggest weaknesses on the defense of the Broncos is that they can’t stop the run. We already mentioned that the running game of the Bills is their biggest weakness.
They could have two more wins, at this point, if they had consistent production moving the ball on the ground.
Prediction: Bills First Half (-4)
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