Monday Night Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

by Mike Allen - 10/11/2023

Monday Night Football predictions Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers Dak Prescott

It is now Week 6 of the NFL regular season, and neither the Dallas Cowboys nor Los Angeles Chargers can afford a third loss this early in the season. If the Cowboys play themselves out of home-field advantage in the playoffs against San Francisco and the Philadelphia Eagles, that means they would also have to go through both teams to get to the Super Bowl.

For years now in Big D, it has been Super Bowl or bust. And with expectations that high, you're likely to face disappointment often. I understand there is a winning attitude that I can't even fathom what it takes to compete in the NFL, but something stinks down there in Texas.

Is it really that bad, though? They have a much better margin of victory than Philly but remain two games behind in the NFC East. This vaunted defense relies on turnovers more than it does dominate. That has shown as the season has progressed.

I could see LA Charger quarterback Justin Herbert making the Dallas Cowboys pay for their over-aggressive play on the defensive side of the ball. If Dallas doesn’t wear down the Chargers defense with the run game and time of possession, this game could play out very closely.

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Cowboys vs Chargers Betting Odds

Point Spread

Dallas: -2 (-113)

Los Angeles: +2 (-107)

We spoke about how the Dallas Cowboys have disappointed slightly, but things have been uglier in LA for the Chargers. They are sitting at 2-2 coming off of their early season bye week. That isn't a worst-case scenario. However, given the amount of talent on this team, one would think that they would have looked better than they have.

The offense has produced even through some injuries, but a big-name defense has not been able to match. They have been incredibly imbalanced through the first four games of the regular season.

Moneyline

Dallas: -130

Los Angeles: +110

I believe the point spread is just about right. So, if you want to attack a side, I would look at the moneylines, especially the Cowboys at just (-130).

Point Total

Over 50.5: -110

Under 50.5: -110

Two strong offenses and two aggressive-but-mistake-prone defenses going up against one another could spell an over bet for this Monday Night Football matchup.

Cowboys vs Chargers Analysis

We talked about how the Dallas defense might be overrated going into the 49ers game because they were leading the league in turnover margin. I know it’s not always the best time to check defensive stats after a game with San Francisco, but Dallas ranks a modest 15th against the pass and 13th against the rush.

LA's defense, though, is at the bottom of the league, allowing more than 400 yards per game thus far. They are a bend-but-don’t-break defense, though, ranking 4th in the league in opponents' 3rd down conversation rate at 31%.

That previous statistic matches up well with the Cowboys, who rank 3rd in the NFL on 3rd downs on offense.

How are we going to give an edge to either squad? It is hard. It is supposed to be a bounce-back game for the Dallas Cowboys after such an embarrassing loss, but I see the LA Chargers off of a bye week with Austin Ekeler returning.

Other key players needed the rest as well. LA didn't start the season super healthy. They also have the privilege of seeing all the holes Kyle Shannahan exposed against Dallas.

Ekeler is a great dual-threat guy, much like Christian McCaffrey. This kid had over 100 receptions from the running back position and nearly 1,000 yards rushing last year. The LA Chargers are very live for an upset on Monday night, but there is another play I prefer.

Cowboys vs Chargers Predictions

Let's hit the over in this game. Picking a side is very difficult. I think we can get to 30-27 in what could be the game of the year.

Pick: Over 50.5

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