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2023 MLB Hits Leader Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Mike Allen - 8/31/2023

MLB hits leader odds Ronald Acuna Atlanta Braves

As the temperature across the country ever so slightly simmers down, the respective races for the pennant in Major League Baseball have commenced. Four of the six divisions are still up for grabs. Teams are also competing for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers are en fuego and just four games back of the Atlanta Braves heading into their four-game homestand as we turn the calendars to September.

The Dodgers have arguably the best hitting duo in the league with Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Both men are candidates to win the NL MVP, and the latter recently spent a few days as the favorite to win the honor at (-140).

Look, a shiny new object!

I don't think too many bettors fell for it, though, as it was short-lived. The sportsbooks pulled a fast one on us, and Ronald Acuna is again the favorite at (-150). If he ever slides down to plus money again, I would throw a unit on him to win it.

I mentioned Acuna and Freeman because we have betting odds and predictions for the 2023 MLB hits leader. The lines on the two superstars are both (+130). They also currently have the same number of hits.

What I love about these current odds is that we have value on either player. Let's talk about why.

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Ronald Acuna: +130

Current Total: 178

The Braves' Acuna absolutely puts a blistering on the ball in what seems like 80% of his at-bats. I don't believe anyone in the league consistently hits the ball harder than the All-Star right fielder.

That is important for today's betting odds because he isn't a better pure hitter than Freeman or his Venezuelan countryman, the Florida Marlins' Luis Arraez.

Acuna ranks in the top ten in barrel percentage, hard-hit balls, and exit velocity, while Freddie Freeman ranks around 100th, with Arraez about 200th.

Looking at sweet spot percentage, however, Freeman is 1st in the league at nearly 50% and Arraez 5th at 43%. Where is Acuna? He's way down at 163rd with just a 33% rate.

What's more important for getting hits? Is it hitting the ball hard or on the sweet spot?

For today's purposes, the answer is sweet spot percentage. The guys at the top of this board are the ones who hit more singles and doubles with fewer strikeouts and home runs than guys like Aaron Judge or Matt Olson, who swing the bat faster and hit the ball harder.

While Acuna has drastically reduced his number of strikeouts in 2023, he is also on pace for a career-high in walks. Acuna may be more valuable in the field and on the basepaths, but Freeman is likely to rack up more hits down the stretch. 

Luis Arraez: +360

Current Total: 173

What about Arraez, though? This guy was almost hitting .400 at the All-Star break. He reminds me of Tony Gwynn in so many ways. The guy places the ball where he wants it better than just about anyone in the league.

He's in a bit of a slump, however, over the past month, only batting .229 for the month of August. He could pick it back up, but the Arraez is sitting five hits shy of not one but two MVP candidates. The Florida Marlins also have one less game to play than the Braves or Dodgers.

If you're a value hunter, I can see why you like a bet on Arraez, but we know both Acuna and Freeman are clutch players who aren't likely to falter as their teams head into postseason play. They also aren't projected to be rested much, if any, as their teams will probably battle for the first seed in the playoffs until the end of the year.

Freddie Freeman: +130

Current Total: 178

What can we say about this guy that we haven’t said already?

A lot. Neither of us has all day for that essay.

He is three percentage points higher than anyone else in baseball hitting the ball on the sweet spot. I also love his veteran savvy down the stretch a bit more than Acuna.

There is no doubt Acuna hits the ball harder, but there is also no doubt Freeman is a better hitter. The argument for who is a better total package can be made, but we will let the MVP voters decide that one.

You may be thinking this already, but you could bet on both Acuna and Freeman at (+130). We just have to hold off the Venezuelan Tony Gwynn from dinking and dunking his way to the hits and batting title for 2023.

With Arraez's implied probability of 20%, you would have an 80% chance to return 15% of your investment. I'm not mad at that. 

So, you have some options if you like value or arbitrage plays, but I prefer a bet on Freeman to be the 2023 MLB hits leader.

Pick: Freeman: +130

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