MLB Handicapping: Most Profitable Starting Pitchers in 2023

by Matt Jacob - 6/21/2023

Most profitable pitchers for betting Blake Snell San Diego Padres

There are plenty of recognizable names near the top of the Cy Young Award odds boards for both leagues — names like Clayton Kershaw, Zack Wheeler, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole and Shohei Ohtani.

Two names you won’t find among the favorites to take home the top pitching prize in the National League and American League? Baltimore Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer and Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Tommy Henry.

In fact, pick a sportsbook, any sportsbook — you won’t even find long-shot odds on either pitcher. Yet Kremer and Henry certainly have a special place in the hearts (and wallets) of MLB bettors. Because no starting pitchers have delivered more profits than that duo.

Here’s a rundown of MLB’s best starting pitchers from a bankroll-enhancing perspective.

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MLB Starting Pitchers: Cashing In On Mediocrity

Through 15 starts, Kremer sports a 4.56 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and has notched 72 strikeouts (while surrendering 14 home runs) in 81 innings. Meanwhile, Henry has pitched to a 4.66 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts), with 36 strikeouts and 10 homers allowed in 56 innings.

Those numbers don’t even qualify as solid, let alone spectacular.

Ah, but it’s another number that has mattered most to savvy baseball bettors: 11-4. That’s the combined won-loss record for Kremer (8-3) and Henry (3-1).

Even more important is this number: 18-7. That’s the combined record the Orioles and DBacks have posted in 25 total starts by Kremer and Henry.

Digging a little deeper into the weeds, Baltimore is 8-4 when Kremer has taken the mound priced as an underdog or pick-em, while Arizona is 4-2 when Henry is in those situations. That has translated into juicy profits for those who have backed the Orioles and Diamondbacks in games that Kremer and Henry start.

How is it possible that two mediocre (at best) pitchers occupy the top two spots in the starting pitcher profitability standings? Two words: run support.

Arizona is averaging 7.1 runs every time Henry toes the rubber; among pitchers with at least nine starts, only the Rangers’ Andrew Heaney has gotten more help from his offense (7.71).

Kremer is further down the run-support list, but Baltimore is still averaging a robust 5.33 runs when the 27-year-old takes the mound.

On the flip side, San Diego lefty Blake Snell has posted outstanding stats this season — 3.48 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 93 strikeouts in 75 innings. However, the Padres’ potent lineup has backed Snell with an average of just 3.07 runs per game.

The end result: San Diego is 4-10 in Snell’s 14 starts. And because the 2020 AL Cy Young winner has been favored in nine games, he is baseball’s sixth-least profitable starting pitcher.

MLB Starting Pitchers: From the Penthouse to the Poorhouse

It must be noted, of course, that Henry and Kremer pitch for two of the five best teams in MLB based on winning percentage — Baltimore (44-27, .620) sits fourth, just ahead of Arizona (44-29, 6.03). Meanwhile, Snell and the Padres are still underwater (35-37, .486).

Those aren’t just outlier correlations, either.

For instance, six of MLB’s seven most profitable starters — Kramer, Henry, Tampa Bay’s Shane McCalanhan and San Francisco’s Alex Cobb and Alex Wood — pitch for teams that enter Wednesday with a winning record. The lone exception is Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller.

Conversely, only one of MLB’s 10 least profitable starting pitchers dons the uniform of a team that’s floating above .500: New York Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt.

The Yankees are just 4-11 when Schmidt starts. And because New York is often laying big prices, Schmidt has cost bettors more money than all but two starting pitchers.

One of those is southpaw Jordan Montgomery. The former Yankee has made 15 starts for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2023, and despite being favored in 13 of those contests, his team has walked away victorious just four times.

As bad as Schmidt and Montgomery have been at cashing tickets, nobody has burned more bankrolls than Kansas City’s Jordan Lyles. Not only is the veteran right-hander 0-11, but the Royals are winless in his 15 starts — most recently blowing a 4-0 lead in 6-4 loss at Detroit on Monday.

To put that 0-15 mark into context, consider this: No other team has a record worse than 0-6 behind a single starting pitcher.

The silver lining? Lyles and the Royals have been underdogs in all 15 of his starts. So those who have (for whatever reason) bet on Lyles this season haven’t lost any vig.

That said, Lyles backers are still down 15 units — nearly the same as Schmidt and Montgomery combined (-16.2 units).

For those looking to jump on the fade train, take note: The next “Jordan Lyles Day” is scheduled for Saturday. On the road. Against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have baseball’s best record overall and best record at home.

MLB’s Most Profitable Starting Pitchers

RHP Denny Kremer (Baltimore Orioles)

Team record in his starts: 10-5

Average run support: 5.3

Profitability: +6.8 units

LHP Tommy Henry (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Team record in his starts: 8-2

Average run support: 7.1

Profitability: +6.0 units

RHP Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Team record in his starts: 10-5

Average run support: 4.3

Profitability: +5.9 units

LHP Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays)

Team record in his starts: 13-2

Average run support: 5.9

Profitability: +5.8 units

LHP Tyler Anderson (Los Angeles Angels)

Team record in his starts: 9-4

Average run support: 6.0

Profitability: +5.1 units

MLB’s Least Profitable Starting Pitchers

RHP Jordan Lyles (Kansas City Royals)

Team record in his starts: 0-15

Average run support: 3.8

Profitability: -15 units

LHP Jordan Montgomery

Team record in his starts: 4-11

Average run support: 4.3

Profitability: -8.2 units

RHP Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees)

Team record in his starts: 4-11

Average run support: 3.6

Profitability: -8.0

RHP Zack Greinke (Kansas City Royals)

Team record in his starts: 3-12

Average run support: 3.4

Profitability: -8.0 units

RHP Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs)

Team record in his starts: 2-10