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MLB Betting Odds and Picks for Division Winners

by Mike Allen - 8/2/2023

MLB division winner picks Elly de la Cruz Cincinnati Reds

The Major League Baseball trade deadline of August 1 has come and gone. And, honestly, it was a bit anti-climactic. We all thought Shohei Ohtani would get shipped off to another city or worse, to make the Los Angeles Dodgers the favorite to win the World Series.

We believed the Cubs would sell Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger… but, no. They think they have a shot at the playoffs, but I'm not buying.

The Angels decided to hang onto their guy because they had an outside shot of making the playoffs. If you ask me, though, they blew their opportunity to rebuild.

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AL West

The Angels are only six games out of the lead in the AL West. The problem for them is that they are tied with the Seattle Mariners, and there is another tie at the top of the division between the Astros and the Rangers.

Who takes the state of Texas? First, let's have a look at the betting odds.

Texas Rangers: +125

Houston Astros: +125

The Texas Rangers did more at the trade deadline when they acquired Max Scherzer from the New York Mets. The 39-year-old isn't what he used to be, but the run-scoring Rangers (1st in MLB) have his back if he throws a few flat fastballs now and again.

Texas has been the better team all year, not just the past few weeks. The books overreacted seeing Houston playing so well, but I like the bats for the boys in blue down the stretch.

Texas also has the proven pieces in place. Houston has a few, but their pitching staff isn't near what it used to be during their "title" runs. Am I picking against the Astros again simply because we know they are cheaters?

I am not. It's not a fade on the Astros at all. Along with the LA Dodgers, they are the team I do not want to face in the playoffs or the World Series. As far as the regular season goes, I'll take Texas.

Pick: Texas Rangers: +125

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays: -105

Baltimore Orioles: +125

You might not believe me, but I wrote off the Tampa Bay Rays in early June. It is a fun town, but they have some fair-weather fans. When I lived there in 2004, the Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup.

Two-thirds of that town didn't even know who Stanley was, much less if he had a cup. I watched a Braves game there recently, and there were more Atlanta fans in the stands than Rays fans, by far. The cheering was a trip.

Does this matter? Absolutely. The Cincinnati Reds playing at home could be the most intense environment in the MLB. We will get to them in a moment.

Tampa Bay also doesn't have any superstars. I heard a radio guy say that, and it got me thinking. Fade these guys hard for the rest of the season. It has been a free fall for the Florida team.

What do we do here? Do we take a team in the Rays who were once (-900) to win the division? A line of (-105) is pretty good in comparison!

We have three games in the loss column to play with, and plus-money if we want the O's. They also have a much better atmosphere to steal some home games down the stretch.

Pick: Baltimore (+125)

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers: -170

Cincinnati Reds: +160

I tipped my hand as we were talking about Tampa Bay. The Cincy Reds are young, and I only see their energy levels continuing to rise as they have all season.

Rookie shortstop Elly De La Cruz looks like Randy Moss with a bat in his hand. That guy is electric! It doesn't stop with him, either. The Reds are one of the youngest teams in the league. When their energy starts to play off of the crowd, and vice versa, it feels like a college football atmosphere.

The pitching of the Reds stinks, and that has people leaning toward the Milwaukee Brewers in this spot. But not me. I dig what the Brew Crew can do. They have a superstar in Christian Yelich, but the bats fall fairly flat after that.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds: +160

In Conclusion

There is still a ton of baseball left, and if you think these three divisional races are to remain tight, then I can understand waiting to make a bet.

You have to jump on the value when it's there, though. The Reds are in first place. So, the (+160) is a no-brainer.

The battle for the State of Texas will be fought in the trenches, and I like the more well-rounded team to come out ahead.

Who will stay hot down the stretch in the AL East? This bet is probably the hardest for me, but the Orioles can steal a few more wins at home due to the atmosphere and the fans.

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