MLB Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams for Wagering 8/4/2023

by Joey House - 8/4/2023

MLB betting hot and cold report Adbert Alzolay Chicago Cubs

As summer churns on at a record-high pace, we take a look at some baseball teams who have been hot in their own right, as well as some teams who still need to thaw out because their performances have been so ice-cold. Luckily, Docs have been monitoring both ends of the spectrum and can give you expert analysis of who to follow and who to fade.

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Hot Moneyline-Season

Baltimore Orioles: 66-42 +23.70 Units 17.77% ROI

The Orioles finally caught and surpassed the Tampa Bay Rays after their historic start of the season. Baltimore has easily been the biggest surprise of the season and still continues to represent value by being either very short favorites or outright underdogs. This trend is likely to continue the rest of the season, as both Vegas and the public have difficulty believing that the O's are a solid team.

Hot Moneyline-Last 10 Games

Chicago Cubs: 8-2 +6.05 Units 60.63% ROI

The Chicago Cubs have gone on a nice little run that caused them to both get back into the playoff race AND not be sellers at the trade deadline. This stretch of games has included beating up this year's division doormat St. Louis Cardinals and division leader Cincinnati Reds.

Cold Moneyline-Season

Oakland Athletics: 30-79 -28.50 Units -26.10% ROI

Our old friends Oakland A's continue to dwell in the cellar of the moneyline department this season. There has been no miracle, no Billy Beane-constructed roster that went on to win 20 games in a row. They've earned this worst-record-in-baseball moniker, with a league-low team ERA of 5.87 and also a league-low batting average of .223. The only way to really profit off this epic ineptness is to bet the run line in division games, where they have an 11-20 ATS record.

Cold Moneyline-Last 10 Games

Chicago White Sox: 2-8 -5.85 Units -57.92% ROI

As the country has been embroiled in a massive heat wave, the Chi Sox pitching has contributed to the rising temperatures by getting torched on a regular basis. Only one time in the last 10 games were the White Sox favored, and they, in true fashion, lost 7-3 against the crosstown rival Cubs. Looking ahead to the next 10 games, they have some winnable matchups against the Yankees, but they also play the Guardians and the Brewers, making them a very possible repeat customer in this category.

Hot Run Line-Season

Cincinnati Reds: 70-40 26.25 Units 18.25% ROI

Besides the Angels Shohei Ohtani, who is doing his best Babe Ruth impression, the hottest name in baseball is the Cincinnati Reds Elly De La Cruz. This electrifying and exciting player has been a jolt of instant offense to the Reds and as such sees them residing in first place not only in the division standings but the season run line total as well. They have a stellar 58-27 record as a run-line underdog.

Hot Run Line-Last 10 games

Toronto Blue Jays: 7-3 5.20 Units 40.63% ROI

In full disclosure, the Cubs are also the hottest run line team the past 10 games. However, to spread the wealth, the Blue Jays are included, only one win behind the scintillating Cubs. This included a 3-game ATS sweep of the Angels and Dodgers. Their next 10 games include the Red Sox, Guardians, and Chicago Cubs. As long as their hitting stays as hot as it has been, they have a chance to continue this nice little run.

Cold Run Line- Season

New York Mets: 41-66 -34.40 Units -25.27 ROI

The Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies were two of the most disappointing teams early in the season, and this run line is evidence that they still continue to let their backers down. Both teams made the postseason last year and were expected to perform much better. The Mets essentially waved the white flag at the deadline, moving both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, as well as reliever David Robertson. If they hope to escape the depths of the run line cellar, they're going to have to do so with a diminished squad. Look to continue to fade them as it just seems they've packed it in for the season.

Top Team Over -Season

Los Angeles Dodgers: 61-40-5 O/U+17.10 Units 14.63% Over ROI

When you look at the Los Angeles Dodgers this season, it's easy to see why sit atop the seasonal team total category. They have the second-most prolific offense in terms of runs per game (5.61 R/G) and a pitching staff that is slightly below the league average in allowing runs per contest (4.66 R/G allowed). As most totals are around 8.0 or 8.5 runs per game, their average game score of just over 10 runs will definitely go over many nights. With the explosiveness of this offense, I don't see this trend slowing down much for the rest of the season, and it’s definitely something to keep in mind during the postseason.

Top Team Under-Season

Colorado Rockies: 45-63 O/U +14.40 OV Units 12.19% OV ROI

With the rarified air in Coors Field, this might be the most surprising statistic of the entire season. This statistic is certainly not because of stellar pitching, as their staff has given up the second-most runs per game at 5.81. Rather, this speaks to the ineptness of their offense, whose 4.32 runs per game is 19th in the Major Leagues. Playing half of their games at the incredibly hitter-friendly Coors, the Rockies are just 23rd in home runs for the season at 107. With a team average of .252, I honestly feel this trend could be exploited in the future as the Rockies start to score more.

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