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MLB Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams for Betting 4/20/2023

by Joey House - 4/20/2023

Hot and cold MLB teams Ji Hwan Bae Pittsburgh Pirates

Straight Up Records

Category Record Percent

Away Teams 146-132 52.5%

Home Teams 132-146 47.5%

Favorites 170-107 61.4%

Dogs 107-170 38.6%

Away Favs 74-36 67.3%

Away Dogs 71-96 42.5%

Home Favs 96-71 57.5%

Home Dogs 36-74 32.7%

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Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Category Record Percent

Away Teams 163-115-0 58.6%

Home Teams 115-163-0 41.4%

Favorites 132-146-0 47.5%

Dogs 146-132-0 52.5%

Away Favs 63-46-0 57.8%

Away Dogs 100-69-0 59.2%

Home Favs 69-100-0 40.8%

Home Dogs 46-63-0 42.2%

Over VS. Under Trends

Category Overs Percent Unders Percent

Ex.In Games 15 55.56% 12 44.44%

9-Inning Games 127 52.92% 113 47.08%

All Games 142 53.2% 125 46.8%

Straight Up Records

The 2023 MLB season has seen a slight shift in the traditional home-field advantage dynamic, with away teams winning slightly more games than home teams. Additionally, favorites have won more games than underdogs, reflecting more accurate predictions by the betting public. Away favorites have had the most success, while home underdogs have had the least success, suggesting a shift in betting strategies for those looking to wager on the games.

The ATS trends for the 2023 MLB season show a similar pattern to the straight up records, with away teams having a better record than home teams. However, the difference in percentage is more pronounced in the ATS trends. The data also shows that underdogs have a better record against the spread than straight up, while favorites have a worse record against the spread. This information can be useful for those looking to make informed betting decisions.

Recent rule changes in baseball have contributed to an increase in scoring, which is reflected in the over vs. under trends. For example, the "no infield shift" rule has made it easier for batters to hit the ball in play, while the use of bigger bases has led to more stolen bases and infield hits. These factors may have contributed to a higher frequency of overs in extra inning games, where there are more opportunities for runs to be scored. Similarly, overs have been slightly more common than unders in non-extra inning games, which could be attributed to the increased scoring in general. Bettors looking to make informed decisions on the total number of runs scored in a game may want to consider these trends and how they relate to the specific teams involved.

HOT TEAMS

Milwaukee Brewers 14-5 9-10 O/U

Win Pct: .737

Total Money: $1004

While all of the media's attention was on the Tampa Bay Rays impressive 12-0 start, it's been the "Brew Crew" that has made bettors the most money. They are a blistering 7-4 as money line dogs, with the average odds of those games being +137 and the longest odds of +153 against the San Diego Padres. To top off that impressive statistic, after being shut out on opening day as a -130 favorite, they have won the seven other games in which they were chalk (avg. -130). Returns like this could buy a helluva lot of beer.

Pittsburgh Pirates 12-7 9-9-1 O/U

Win Pct: .632

Total Money: $871

I could have given you 10 chances to guess who the second-highest total money team was, and you probably still wouldn't have said Pittsburgh. Yet, here they are, ahead of the "public" teams like the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees. It's their misfortune that the NL Central very competitive so far. Their current 3rd place standing would be good enough for 1st in the A.L. Central. The Pirates sport a 9-7 as ML dogs, with an average line of +140. The had a juicy +235 win against the Cardinals. While they've only been favored three times all season, they've cashed all of those tickets as well. The NL Central has literally been printing money this year.

COLD TEAMS

Oakland A's 3-16 12-6-1 O/U

Total Money: -$1077

It's not surprising that the worst record in baseball has also cost their backers the most. They have been an underdog in every contest this season, with an average line of +173. They won on opening day as a +183 dog against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. They're currently in the middle of a 7-game losing streak. Besides betting against the A's, there's another way to be profitable. Their pitching staff is the worst in the majors in a few key categories besides losses, with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. The 12-6-1 O/U (67%) reflects this atrocious pitching staff. There wouldn't be any team ammenties left if Brad Pitt was GM.

Kansas City Royals 4-15 11-8 O/U

Total Money: -$915

There has been nothing Royal whatsoever for Kansas City so far. This squad is one step away from being excommunicated with their penchant for burning their backers. Somehow odds makers thought that a team with a 4-14 record should be the favorite sometime, which happened yesterday against the Rangers. Of course, the Royals lost in impressive fashion, 12-3. Their average odds have been +137 and they do have a +198 win against the San Francisco Giants. Their team features the MLB's worst team batting average, team runs per game and team OPS. Luckily for the fans of overs, their pitching contributes with a 28th-ranked team ERA of 5.46. It's a brave soul to back this money pit.

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