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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/16/2023

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets series predictions Nikola Jokic

The Denver Nuggets are finally healthy heading into the postseason, and they are looking to win the Western Conference for the first time in franchise history. The reigning 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic has the support he needs to succeed, and the Serbian superstar craves some playoff hardware to go with his regular season accolades. The Timberwolves will not roll over easily, and their roller coaster regular season has them ready for a deep playoff run. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns are one of the most underrated duos in the league, and the pair will look to become the first No. 8 seed to hoist the championship trophy.

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Denver Nuggets:

The Denver Nuggets have been atop the Western Conference since December 20 and have been licking their lips while eagerly waiting for the postseason. There is no doubt who the star of the show is. Jokic is coming off back-to-back MVP awards. And while it’s looking like he’ll miss out this season, he’s still put together another immaculate campaign. Jokic has seen a slight downtick in his scoring, putting up 24.5 PPG compared to the 27.1 PPG he posted a year ago, but has shot the ball better, finishing the season with a career high 63.2 field goal percentage. Not only that, but his 9.8 Assists per game is far and away his career high, and he smashed Wilt Chamberlain’s 8.6 Assist per game record for a center. There is no one in the league with a complete offensive game like Jokic. And now that he has a decent supporting cast, the Nuggets are optimistic about their playoff chances.

Jamal Murray sat out the second half of the 2020-21 season and missed the entire following season with a horrific knee injury. The Canadian star hasn’t missed a beat in his return, scoring 20 PPG in 65 contests this season. Murray and Michael Porter Jr. will be critical to the Nuggets playoff run and will be thrust into meaningful postseason roles for the first time in their careers. Murray has the ball handling skills to thrive as a starting point guard anywhere in the league, and his connection with Jokic has led the Nuggets to the 5th best offense leaguewide.

The question of depth has always been an issue for Denver. And while there is certainly an improvement from last season, it remains a concern. The Nuggets went 5-8 without Jokic in the lineup this season, and the role players consistently fail to step up. Murray, Porter Jr, and Aaron Gordon are all capable of making big shots, but the quality as we move down the pecking order quickly falls off a cliff.

Despite this issue, the Nuggets will still be favorites in a majority of their matchups. Jokic is simply that good. And as long as he stays healthy, the Nuggets are serious title contenders.

Minnesota Timberwolves:

Where do I begin? The Timberwolves picked up 3-time DPOY Rudy Gobert in the offseason, in what is turning out to be one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history. Gobert has not only been ineffective, but he’s been a liability both on and off the court. His relationship with the team is fragile, as demonstrated by the punches thrown at his teammate during the regular season finale. While a blowout win over the Thunder to secure their playoff position certainly improved morale, it felt like a band aid over a bullet hole, and will surely affect their performances moving forward.

All hope is not lost in Minnesota. Anthony Edwards is slowly living up to the hype of being a first overall pick, posting career highs in PPG (24.6), 3 Point percentage (36.9), Rebounds (5.8), and Assists (4.4). When Edwards is on, the Timberwolves offense looks effortless. It’s easy to forget he’s still just 21-years-old, and he will gain valuable playoff experience regardless of how deep the Timberwolves go.

The co-star in Minnesota was supposed to be Gobert, but Karl-Anthony Towns is slowly taking over that role. A midseason injury certainly hampered Towns’ role in the team. However, having a center who can shoot 3’s is an asset no matter how you slice it. Towns has been able to find space behind the arc, shooting 36.6% from deep, while still hauling in 8.1 Rebounds per game. His importance to the team cannot be understated, and the Timberwolves will need him to be at his best if they are to compete.

Putting the locker room drama aside, the Timberwolves are still a mediocre NBA team. They have the 10th ranked defense, but only the 23rd ranked offense to go along with it. Against top defensive playoff juggernauts, the Timberwolves will struggle to consistently get to the hoop. Edwards is certainly showing development, but Minnesota failed to bring in an adequate co-star in the offseason. There are no glaring holes, but there isn’t a whole lot to get excited about, either. The Timberwolves get steals at a high frequency, ranking 5th in the league, but fail to take advantage, turning over the ball the 4th most frequently. It was exciting to qualify via the play-in tournament for Minnesota, but the postseason success will almost certainly be short lived.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction:

As most 1 vs 8 matchups are, this one is expected to be one sided. The Nuggets have been the top seed for months, and are led by one of, if not the best, player in the league. If Gobert and Towns can shut down Jokic, the Timberwolves may have a chance. However, I expect Jokic to keep doing what he’s been doing all season long and put wins on the board for Denver. He’s averaging 12.7 Assists against the Timberwolves this season. And while he may not be scoring, he’s still running an extremely effective offense. 

There are certainly reasons for hope for the Timberwolves, as they are actually built to take down a team like Denver. They have a competent defense, especially on the interior, which should be able to limit ‘The Joker’. On the outside, Edwards has the tenacity to go toe to toe with Murray, and there are plenty of even battles on the court. If Minnesota can avoid turning the ball over and make use of the extra possessions their defense will generate, they could pull off the upset.

Saying this, I am not expecting them to do so. The Timberwolves have no answer for Jokic, and he has the ability to win the series on his own. The play-in tournament has given Denver a massive rest advantage, and the Timberwolves won’t be able to play at such a high tempo, stretching Denver’s thin bench.

I expect Denver to improve their 34-7 home record with two dominant wins, before Minnesota makes a comeback and ties it up at 2. After a razor close game 5 win to give Denver a 3-2 lead, they’ll close it out in Minnesota, advancing in 6 games.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets in 6 Games

Best Bets:

The Nuggets are surprisingly playable -500 to advance, while the Timberwolves are +375 to pull off the upset. While I’m never thrilled about a -500 line, I expected this to be much closer to the -1000 range. And barring a Jokic injury, the Nuggets will get the job done.

The second bet will also be on Denver, where we’ll be attacking the spread market to reduce that -500 price tag. At -1.5 games, Denver drops all the way down to -175. And unless they win in exactly 7 games, this is a much more playable price. While my official prediction is 6 games, I expect Denver to win in 5 or fewer games far more frequently than in 7. At -175, I like the odds on the number 1 seed taking care of business.

Pick: Denver Nuggets -500

Pick: Denver Nuggets (-1.5) -175

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