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Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/28/2023

Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks series predictions Max Strus

The Miami Heat became the sixth No. 8 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed and became the first ever to do so in five games or fewer. Jimmy Butler put the team on his back and was the best player on the court in all five matchups. Awaiting them in the second round is the New York Knicks. The Knicks are appearing in the second round for the first time since 2013 and will be hopeful they can participate in the Conference Finals for the first time this century. Step aside Julius Randle, as this is Jalen Brunson’s team now. Brunson scored 20+ points in every first-round game and single handedly scored 24% of the Knicks points. Both these teams were not expected to be here, yet their appearance is thoroughly deserved.

The series odds and props have been released, and there are some tantalizing lines available before the second round tips off.

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Miami Heat:

The Miami Heat took advantage of a Giannis Antetokounmpo Game 1 injury and took down the 2021 NBA Champions in the opening game. After the Bucks blew the Heat out 138-122 in Game 2, it looked as though an easy Milwaukee win was on the cards. Jimmy Butler had other plans. In Game 3, the Miami defense stepped up and held the Bucks to 99 points, while Butler scored 30 points on 19 shot attempts. However, a 2-1 lead appeared vulnerable as Antetokounmpo got ready to suit up for Game 4. Butler dropped 56 points, overturning a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit, giving the Heat a 3-1 lead. The Heat wasted no time eliminating the NBA’s top seed, taking care of business in Game 5 on Milwaukee's home court, on the back of a 42-point night from Butler.

While a 4-1 series victory over the NBA’s best team is certainly impressive, the Heat still have plenty of work to do. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo both suffered serious injuries, leaving the Heat extremely undermanned in the backcourt. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus are both quality NBA players, but the lack of superstar talent in the backcourt is not the recipe for a deep playoff run. Kyle Lowry isn’t getting any younger, and Butler will have to play a hybrid role to compensate.

The only reason the Heat are still alive is because of Butler, and they will go as far as the playoff superstar will take them. The Heat lost in the NBA Finals in 2020 and were one shot away from making another Finals appearance last season, falling to the Celtics in 7 games. Butler has shown time and time again that he can carry a team and is averaging a sky high 37.6 PPG after the first round. Betting on Butler sustaining this offensive outburst is a tough ask, but he’s done it many times throughout his career. The Heat will be confident they can once again defy the odds, and build on their impressive victory over the Bucks.

New York Knicks:

The New York Knicks 22nd-ranked defense stepped up in a big way, vanquishing the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1. After splitting the first two games on the road, the Knicks ripped off 3 straight wins, by an average of 13 points, to seal their place in the second round. The Cavaliers scored just 94.2 PPG, and the Knicks held them under 100 points in all 4 of their victories. While there were certainly flaws with the Knicks, including a rather lackluster offense, head coach Tom Thibodeau will be very impressed by their defensive workrate. The Knicks came into the playoffs with the 22nd ranked defense and were expected to use their 2nd ranked offense to outscore their defensive issues. However, their offense faltered while their defense delivered en route to their first second round appearance in a decade.

The Knicks acquired Brunson from the Mavericks in the off-season, and the budding point guard could not have fit in better in New York. He averaged a career high 24.0 PPG and 6.2 Assists in the regular season and formed a lethal partnership with Julius Randle in the backcourt. The pair instantly led the Knicks to a 5th place finish, but Randle faded into the background in the playoffs. Whether it is due to his nagging foot injury, or the pressure of a Knicks playoff run, Randle was a liability in the first round. He failed to eclipse 20 points in any of his appearances and shot just 25/74 from the field. On the other hand, Brunson is rising to the occasion. And after escaping the shadow of Luka Doncic, Brunson looks ready to lead this franchise on a deep playoff run.

While the Knicks defense may have stepped up against the Cavaliers, it is yet to be seen whether that was due to the Knicks excellence, or simply poor showing from the Cavs. It’s clear that the Knicks cannot get used to holding their opponents under 100 points and will need their offensive talents to step up in the coming rounds. RJ Barrett got better as the series went on, and role players like Immanuel Quickley and Josh Hart performed admirably. Randle is still clearly laboring, However, if he can look anything like his former self, the Knicks just may keep this Cinderella story rolling.

Knicks vs Heat Prediction:

It is rare to see the No. 5 seed with home court advantage in the postseason, but the Knicks will enjoy the comfort of Madison Square Garden for a majority of the series. The Heat are far better when playing in South Beach, and New York will look to use the Knicks faithful to their advantage. If the Knicks are to be successful, they will need to shut down Butler. Considering the injuries in the Heat’s backcourt, if the Knicks choose to double team Butler, they may find tangible success in this series. Both teams play at a slow pace of play, and when Butler gets time to cook in an isolation offense, it usually results in a basket, regardless of the defender.

While the attention will be on the backcourt battle, the fight for rebounds may tilt the scales in this series. The Heat managed to take down the Bucks, despite entering in the Bottom 5 in rebounds, while Milwaukee led the league. The Knicks have a similar edge on the glass, as they are second in rebounds per game. While Bam Adebayo may be overpaid, the big man has done his job admirably. He posted a double-double and a triple-double in the first round and fought tooth and nail for every extra possession.

In the postseason, the team with the best player on the court often emerges victorious. Jimmy Butler had some real first round heroics, and I expect him to do just enough to get the Heat into the Conference Finals. The Knicks 22nd ranked defense will reveal their cracks, and the Heat have the veteran presence to exploit whatever the defense gives them. It won’t be easy, but I’m expecting the Heat to seal the deal in 7 games, eliminating the Knicks at MSG.

Prediction: Miami Heat in 7 Games.

Best Bets:

The Heat are coming in as moderate underdogs, and I’ll be jumping on the +135 line attached to their victory. The Knicks upset over Cleveland was certainly impressive, but it pales in comparison to what the Heat did to Milwaukee. Butler has proven time and time again that he is the man in the playoffs, and I don’t trust anyone on the Knicks to shut him down defensively or match him offensively. We are getting great odds for the Heat to advance, and it’s an easy first bet to make for this series.

After all the Butler talk, it would be a shame not to take him at -300 to score the most points in the series. Regardless of who prevails, Butler will be scoring. He’s the clearcut first option in Miami and has the potential to explode for 40+ point performances at a moment’s notice. For the Knicks, Brunson and Randle will be splitting shots, and won’t have the volume to cash this bet. It’s a chalky pick. However, barring a major injury, it will be cashing.

Finally, the value is too good to pass up the Heat winning exactly 4-3 at +650. While winning a Game 7 on the road won’t be easy, I expect this series to go down to the wire. We are getting fantastic odds, and in the clutch I’ll take the veterans in Miami over the inexperience in New York every day of the week.

Pick: Miami Heat to advance +135 3 Units

Pick: Jimmy Butler Most Points -300 3 Units

Pick: Miami Heat win 4-3 +650 1 Unit

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