Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Predictions for Prop Bets

by Mike Allen - 8/4/2023

This Saturday night, the wait is over for YouTube fans, true boxing fans, mixed martial arts fans, and those of us who appreciate a good scrap.

Yes, we are coming off one of the biggest weeks in boxing for the entire year. Naoue Inoue and Terrance Crawford both put on epic pound-for-pound performances. And now we are supposed to get excited for a YouTube star to box an aging cage fighter?

Yes!

People want to see this fight. Jake's fans will tune in. We know MMA fans want to watch. The general fight fan isn’t too picky, and even the purest of pugilists will find a screen late on Saturday night.

Oh, and did I mention all the bettors who will be invested in this one?

Did you know you can bet on a knockdown total? Yes, there are over/under odds on how many times either fighter gets knocked down.

Let's look at these interesting props odds and make a few predictions for your pocket heading into Sunday Funday.

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Both Fighters to Be Knocked Down

Yes: +400

No: -750

The former UFC star has never been known for his punching power. He is a pressure fighter with durability and a gas tank.

If Jake goes down, I see him taking a knee like another YouTube sensation, ehem… Ryan Garcia, when he fought Tank Davis. He said he wanted to stand up from the count, but his rib hurt…his rib.

Ryan showed his true colors, and Jake may do the same on Saturday. I'm not saying he will look for a way out, but he might take a knee if that pressure becomes overwhelming. Nate will rip the body if Jake uses the high guard against the ropes.

Even if Paul is winning big on the cards… remember, fatigue makes cowards of us all.

There is a world where Jake drops Nate once or twice early on. Therefore, he is confidently up on the scorecards and could be more likely to take a knee or breather when Diaz is pouring it on in the final rounds.

Pick: Yes: +400

Either Fighter to Be Knocked Down

Yes: -380

No: +250

I am staying away from this one. With Nate Diaz's style of kill-or-be-killed, and the numerous times we have seen him dropped, the answer is yes. The (-380), though, no thank you.

Jake Paul to Be Knocked Down:

Yes: +280

No: -425

We have already talked about this. Since we heavily favor Nate to go down, we might as well take the 4-1 on both guys hitting the canvas.

Nate Diaz to be Knocked Down

Yes: -245

No: +175

This is another dog or pass situation, and I have already shown you the lean. Nate goes down at least once. If the (-245) is in your price range, though, smash it!

To Be Knocked Down and Win

Jake Paul: +700

Nate Diaz: +1800

The 18 to 1 odds on Nate are very sexy. We think he is going down, win or lose. So, why not?

Pick: Diaz

Total Knockdowns

Over 1.5: +160

Under 1.5: -195

Jake Paul took some heavy shots against Tommy Fury. The Brit had Paul running into some hard ones, but the Ohio-born athlete was unfazed. It isn't likely he gets dropped, but I dig the potential for it to happen late from him gassing out and getting hit to the body.

Paul is projected for 1.5 knockdowns. I think both men can manage two between them.

Pick: Total Knockdowns Over 1.5: +160

Jake Paul to Win and Over 1.5 Knockdowns: +200

Nate does get hit and put down a lot, and we have seen Jake drop people as stiff as a board. While I don't think he puts him out with one shot, Diaz probably won't be put down twice.

Jake Paul to Win and Under 1.5 Knockdowns: -110

Here is my narrative. It's also the narrative the books are getting behind. In sports betting, you generally have to go against the narrative to find value, but I don't mind the near-even money in this spot.

Pick: Jake Paul to Win and Under 1.5 Knockdowns: -110

Nate Diaz to Win and Over 1.5 Knockdowns: +800

This one isn't likely to hit, and I don't see Nate dropping Jake more than once.

Nate Diaz to Win and Under 1.5 Knockdowns: +475

The (+475) isn't that far off the moneyline for Nate Diaz, which currently sits at (+280). It's not nearly as profitable as Nate to get knocked down and win at (+1800).

In Conclusion

I feel like we have been waiting on this fight for too long. I am a huge Anderson Silva and Diaz Brothers fan. So, I don't want to see Nate get smoked by Jake Paul. He has smoked enough at this point.

Since the moneyline betting odds weren't offering us much value, thankfully, we found some fun and probably profitable prop bets.

At approximately 11 p.m. Saturday, these two make the walk. Get your bets in now and enjoy the show.

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