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How 2023 MLB Rule Changes will Impact Betting Lines

by Matt Zitt - 3/30/2023

How MLB rule changes affect betting lines Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers

America’s favorite pastime returns today with some major changes to the diamond. Last September, Major League Baseball announced three significant changes for the 2023 season: the addition of a pitch clock, the banning of the shift and increased size of the bases. Out of the three, the pitch clock is the most controversial to baseball traditionalists that believe the unlimited time of the game is part of baseball's charm. Pitchers will now have only 15 seconds to throw a pitch with the bases empty, and that number moves to 20 seconds with runners on base. If the clock hits zero before the pitcher chucks a pitch, it is an automatic ball. Love it or hate it: players, fans and gamblers are going to have to get used to it.

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Fans can expect shorter games in length of time. However, what do these rule changes mean for bettors? And the answer should be runs, runs and more runs! These changes to the game indicate MLB wants more action while competing with the nature of the NBA, NFL, and NHL.

Bettors should take advantage of the low over and under run totals that will start the season and bet on the over. Most Opening Day lines, according to DraftKings, are set from 6.5-7.5 total runs. There are obviously a few games that have a higher total, but the majority are in this area. These totals make sense with pitchers dominating in previous seasons and hitter’s numbers are down, hence the rule changes. So, let's dive into why offenses can find more success in 2023.

Pitchers will not throw as hard. Gearing up for a 100-mph fastball requires whole-body physical movement. Prior to this season, pitchers had as much time to regroup between pitches. That allows them to take their breath and extend recovery time before the next pitch to the batter. The implementation of the pitch clock should make hurlers run out of gas earlier, tipping the scales back toward the hitter’s favor. 

Stolen bases will increase. It is no secret MLB wants more steals since they have been down for quite some time. Analytics will say, “why risk getting thrown out at second base?”. Runners will be more aggressive with the base size increased and limitations on the number of pickoffs. The offense should be able to get better reads and jumps on the basepath more often, incentivizing ball clubs to be more aggressive.

No more shift equals more action! The days of crowding the right side of the field when David Ortiz came to the dish are long gone. With MLB deciding there has to be two infielders on each side of second base, this opens up more holes in the infield for dead pull hitters. This should create more hits, more baserunners and a lot more runs.

2023 should be an interesting season for Major League Baseball and bettors of the sport. I would expect over and under run totals to increase later in the season. For now, hammer the over totals!

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