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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 12/28/2023

by Spencer Toth - 12/28/2023

Hot and cold NBA betting teams ATS and over under Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

As 2023 comes to a close, the NBA standings have begun to take shape. Unbelievably, more than a third of the season is already behind us, and some teams have been solid money makers thus far, while others have limped towards 2024. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread over the last 2 weeks, with the highest and lowest scorers examined too.

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The Hot:

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have gone an incredible 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games, winning 6 of those contests outright. Coincidentally, the Bulls ‘best player’ Zach LaVine has been on the sidelines for the last 13 contests, but the Bulls have somehow gotten better. The Bulls have a 5-13 record with LaVine in the lineup, compared to a 9-5 record when he sits. The oddsmakers have been hesitant to correctly value the Bulls since his injury, allowing bettors to tail a revamped Bulls team at a discounted price. They’ve been underdogs in 8 of their last 10, but the improved play from DeMar DeRozan and Coby White has allowed them to consistently prevail. The sportsbooks will eventually accept the fact that the Bulls are better without LaVine. However, until they start adjusting the lines, or LaVine returns to the lineup, the Bulls will be a great team to back in the underdog role on a nightly basis.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers have been slowly climbing the Eastern conference standings, posting an 8-2 record both straight up, and against the spread, in the last 10 games. Joel Embiid has emerged as the MVP favorite at +175 odds, as the dominant big man has allowed Philly to consistently cover large spreads. They’ve been 8+ point favorites in 7 of their last 10 games, winning and covering 6 times they were expected to dominate. Their interior presence wears down their opposition and allows them to keep building bigger leads as the game progresses. The backdoor cover hasn’t been an issue for Philly bettors, as despite frequently taking big leads into the final frame, the 76ers have still won 7 of their last 10 fourth quarters. Good teams win, and great teams cover, and the 76ers have been consistently blowing out lower tier opposition this season. When healthy, any single-digit spread against a non-playoff team usually results in a cover for the 76ers.

The Cold:

Detroit Pistons

Surprise surprise, the team riding an NBA record 27-game losing streak has not been covering spreads. The extra motivation to snap the losing streak has not been enough for the Pistons, as while they’ve obviously lost their last 10 games, they’ve also only secured 2 covers along the way. The Pistons are an interesting team. On paper, they have the talent needed to compete for a play-in spot, yet they’ve obviously fallen well short of expectations. Cade Cunningham, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jalen Duren and quality anchors to lead a team, but the lack of the 3-ball for Detroit, combined with poor perimeter defense, has allowed opposing teams to quickly run up the score. There is no doubt the Pistons will continue to find themselves in the underdog role throughout the season. However, the big blowout losses will continue to string together, as reflected in their +17 point spread in tonight’s matchup against Boston. Detroit shouldn’t be the worst team in the league, yet they are. Until this team can show some 4th quarter grit, they cannot be trusted to keep games even reasonably close.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns were expected to challenge for an NBA title this season, but a combination of underperforming stars and injuries to key players has seen them tumble down the standings. They’ve gotten the cover in just 2 of their last 10 games and have only 3 wins to show for it. Despite the losing skid, the Suns have been favorites in 6 of their last 7 games, as surely a team featuring Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal will eventually turn it around. However, the Suns frequently turn the ball over, do not generate nearly enough steals, and are just a mediocre team on the glass. They frequently put up 10+ fewer shot attempts than their opponents, allowing even their efficient offense to not be enough to tilt the score in their favor. Phoenix has all the talent in the world. However, until they get back to the fundamentals of the game, they will continue to fall short of expectations in the favorite role.

High Scorers:

New York Knicks

The Knicks boasted a top 5 defensive unit through the first quarter of the season. However, since losing Mitchell Robinson for several weeks, their defense has been nowhere near as efficient. The Knicks have gone Over the posted total in 7 of the last 10 games, with a 5-5 record to show for it. Their slow pace of play is counteracted by poor defense, and an improved offense with Robinson on the shelf. Head coach Tom Thibodeau will be furious with the lack of effort on the defensive end. And while scoring spurts from Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson have kept the Knicks afloat, if they expect to challenge the top Eastern Conference teams, they will need their elite defense to return. The bookies are finally starting to catch up to the change in the Knicks roster the Robinson-sized hole leaves, with their last 7 totals closing at 230+ points, after only 1 of their first 23 games had a total in the 230’s. Their last 3 games have all seen 240+ totals, as the bookies are desperately trying to get a better read on where New York stands. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league but will keep on cashing these Overs until Robinson gets back onto the court.

Atlanta Hawks 

The Hawks have been the worst team at covering spreads this season, with a woeful 7-23 record. Their poor defense has been their demise, as they’ve gone over the total in 7 of their last 10 games. Trae Young is one of the most exciting players to watch in the league, as his seemingly unlimited range from behind the arc makes him a very tough guard on the offensive end. However, his lack of defensive workrate allows teams to go shot for shot with the Hawks, often leading to high-scoring Atlanta losses. After being the epitome of mediocrity over the last few seasons, consistently finishing with 40-43 wins, the Hawks have lost 11 of their last 15 games, despite scoring 113+ points in 13 straight games. Until the Hawks figure things out defensively, they will keep cashing their sky-high totals.

Low Scorers

Denver Nuggets

The phrase ‘offense wins games, and defense wins championships’ couldn’t be more accurate for the Nuggets, as while they don’t find themselves leading the West, they are confident their strong defense can lead them to another championship. The Over has cashed in just 2 of the Nuggets last 10 games. However, with an 8-2 record over that span, they will not care. Nikola Jokic steals the spotlight on the offensive end, but the floor general is also the leader on defense for Denver. Even with totals consistently in the high 220’s, the Nuggets still find ways to cash the Under. Their defense has held their opponents to 118 or fewer points in 9 of their last 10. And when Denver finds themselves with big 4th quarter leads, they are happy to slow down the pace and grind out the clock.

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets offense has been abysmal, allowing the Under to cash in 7 of their last 10 games, while Charlotte has just 1 win to show for their efforts. LaMelo Ball continues to watch from the sidelines as his team struggles offensively. They’ve been held to under 120 points in 10 straight games, but the bookies refuse to lower their total to below 220, thanks to their poor defense. However, the Hornets have been getting blown out on a nightly basis, allowing the intensity to drop in the final frame, and the scoring to drop with it. The Hornets have been unable to consistently put out the same starting 5, as injuries have disrupted their flow on the offensive end. While many of these streaks look likely to continue, Charlotte’s under streak will be snapped in the near future, thanks to poor defensive showings and the imminent return of their best scorer in the coming weeks.

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