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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 12/14/2023

by Spencer Toth - 12/14/2023

NBA hot and cold betting teams ATS and Over Under Victor Wembanyama San Antonio Spurs

The in-season tournament is in the rearview mirror, and it is now time to buckle up for a grueling NBA regular season. There is plenty of money to be made, and certain teams have been solid moneymakers over the last few weeks, while others have consistently fallen short of expectations. Here’s the hottest and coldest teams against the spread in the NBA.

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The Hot:

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA, going 8-2 ATS and 7-3 straight up over their last 10 games. The Nets are spearheaded by an underappreciated duo, as Cam Thomas and Mikal Bridges have consistently proven they are capable of leading an NBA franchise up the standings. Both scorers are averaging Over 23 PPG, with 36% and 38% clips from behind the arc. Brooklyn’s quality 3-point shooting up and down their roster has allowed them to compensate for their 19th ranked defense. And until oddsmakers start giving them the respect they deserve, they will continue to pile on to their league leading 17-5-1 record ATS this season. They’ve won outright as underdogs twice in the last 10 games and took care of business in 5 of the 6 games they came in as favorites, winning and covering. Four of their next 5 games are against top tier NBA teams, so keep an eye out for any large spreads the Nets are afforded. They often keep it close against the top dogs and take care of business against the bottom-feeders.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are not far behind the Nets, going 7-2-1 ATS over the last 10 games. The home and road splits for Houston is something to keep an eye out for, as they are 11-1 at home, and just 1-8 on the road straight up. The combination of veteran leadership with Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, and bursting young talent, has allowed the Rockets to consistently defend their home court. They’ve been underdogs in a whopping 8 of their last 10 contests but have covered the spread in 6 of those games, winning outright in 3 of them. The Rockets will be contending for a play-in tournament spot, as they have finally pulled themselves out of their rebuild. The oddsmakers are still grading the Rockets based on previous seasons. However, with a revamped roster, it is only a matter of time before the books eventually start giving them the respect they deserve.

The Cold:

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have been a symbol of mediocrity in recent seasons, rarely going on big winning, or losing, streaks. They are in the midst of their longest losing streak in several years, having lost 5 straight games. They’ve covered the spread just once in their last 10 matchups and have failed to do so in 8 straight games, 7 of which they lost outright. The Hawks elite offensive unit, led by Trae Young, can only do so much when they give up 3rd most PPG. And unless they fix their defensive issues, they will continue to fall short of expectations. Young has been phenomenal on the offensive end, easily leading the team in both PPG (27.2) and Assists (10.8). However, his workrate defensively, and his tendency to turn the ball over, has not resulted in wins going on the board for the Hawks. Eight of their next 11 games are played away from home. Therefore, unless you’re getting a boatload of points with the cold Hawks on the road, there is no reason to touch any close lines until the Hawks come out of their rut.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have gone just 2-7-1 ATS over the last 10 games and have lost a whopping 21 straight contests. They are bottom 5 in offensive and defensive rating, steals, turnovers, and shooting percentages. There weren't many legitimate expectations for the Pistons franchise coming into the season, but a budding young core was expected to put at least a few wins on the board. Their already weak roster has been plagued by injuries. And even with double-digit spreads, it is difficult to expect Detroit to keep it close over the span of 48 minutes. They will be underdogs in almost every contest. And with no bottom 5 teams on the horizon until mid-January, this losing streak could easily leak into 2024.

High Scorers:

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers offense is borderline unstoppable, as the departure of James Harden has only allowed Tyrese Maxey to blossom even further from the point. They’ve gone Over the total in 9 of their last 10 games, winning 6 of those contests. Joel Embiid and Maxey have developed a very effective ‘big and small’ duo, putting up 33.8 and 26.1 PPG, respectively. Their 4 losses in the last 10 have all come by small margins, as their late game defense has cost them valuable victories. The 76ers have a solid overall defense, but late in the 4th quarter they have consistently fallen apart. Big offensive showings combined with late 4th quarter opposition comebacks have fueled the Over cashing in the last 8 games, despite the total closing at 230+ in all but 1 matchup. The oddsmakers are reluctant to raise the total any higher. However, as they’ve done with the high flying Pacers, when teams just keep cashing overs, it gives them no choice. The 76ers have been, and will continue to be, a solid pick on the Over at any reasonable total, regardless of the opposition.

New York Knicks

The Knicks offense got off to a horrendous start, but their elite defense kept them in contests. However, just as their offense has begun to turn the corner, thanks to improved play from Julius Randle, their defense has fallen off a cliff. They’ve gone Over the total in 8 of the last 10 games, with an even 5-5 record to show for it. After keeping their opponents to 120 or fewer points in each of their first 19 contests, they've allowed 130+ in 3 of their last 4 games. Tom Thibodeau will not be happy with the defensive drop-off, as it feels as though since the Knicks have sorted out their offensive issues, they’ve taken their foot off the gas on the defensive end. Coincidentally, their rim protector and rebound grabber Mitchell Robinson has missed their recent contests. And with him on the sidelines for at least the next 2 months, the Knicks will continue to score, and allow points, in bunches. Oddsmakers and bettors alike will look at the Knicks inflated 12th ranked defense and expect them to clamp down on the defensive end, but the loss of Robinson could not have a greater effect on their defensive scheme. New York will hold its defensive reputation, warranting low totals, yet consistently soar over anything in the 220’s.

The Low Scorers:

LA Clippers

The Clippers have cashed the Over in just 3 of their last 10 games. However, after having 7 wins to show for it, they will not mind in the slightest. The arrival of James Harden was expected to hurt the Clippers defense, but they’ve been able to do just enough on the defensive end to put wins on the board and cash Unders in the process. Their total has closed at 225 or higher in 8 of their last 10 games, as the expectation that their offensive superstars will fill up the hoop, and bring lackadaisical defense the other way, has just not been happening. The Clippers have a slow pace, and a top 5 defense, which has allowed the Under to cash in a whopping 14 of their last 18. As long as the Clippers keep putting wins on the board, they will not care about their total and will happily edge out defensive battles all season long.

San Antonio Spurs

The Pistons are not the only team on a massive losing streak, as the Spurs are giving them a run for their money, having lost 18 straight games. They’ve cashed the Over in just 4 of their last 10, thanks to the league’s worst offense. Victor Wembanyama was expected to make an instant impact, but the Frenchman has scored only 19.3 PPG, on 27.4% from behind the arc. There isn’t much support around him, and Wembanyama has been given a harsh reality check if he expected to instantly find success in the world’s best basketball league. Their total has closed at 224+ in each of their last 10 games, and 230+ in 8 of them. Their weak defense has allowed teams to rack up the score, but these high totals will continue to fall short until they can fix their own offensive issues.

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