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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 11/30/2023

by Spencer Toth - 11/30/2023

Hot and cold NBA betting teams ats over under Franz Wagner Orlando Magic

Just like that, a quarter of the NBA season is already in the rearview mirror. The realistic expectations for each franchise are becoming clearer, and some teams have straightened the ship, while others have continued to plummet down the standings. Here’s the hottest and coldest teams against the spread at this stage of the season.

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The Hot:

Orlando Magic 

Orlando has come out of their rebuild and are ready to start challenging for an NBA title. They’ve gone 9-1 both straight up, and against the spread, in their last 10 games, fueling them to a top 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Franz Wagner has led the way for Orlando, scoring a team high 20.2 PPG. While that number is not impressive for a second-place team’s leading scorer, the Magic have found success due to their defense and complete roster. There are 6 different players averaging 11+ PPG so far this year, and that has been enough to get the 2nd best defense in the league a plethora of wins. The bookies are still treating the Magic like they have been over the last few seasons. And until they start to adjust the lines to properly reflect the current state of this Orlando roster, the Magic will continue to be money makers all season long.

Houston Rockets

In a similar vein to the Magic, the Rockets new and improved lineup has not been getting the respect they deserve. While they’ve only gone 5-5 over the last 10 games, they’re 7-1-2 ATS over that span. They consistently get free buckets, regardless of the venue, and have been able to keep games close in the underdog role. Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks have brought the veteran leadership the budding young core in Houston craves, and the Rockets find themselves in the thick of the playoff race, a stark comparison to their recent seasons in the basement. The biggest beneficiary has been Alperen Sengun. The 21-year-old has been exceptional in the paint this season, leading the team in PPG (21) and Rebounds (8.9). His ball movement in the post keeps defenses honest, and he’s more than happy to force his way to the hoop in single coverage and find the open man once the double team materializes. Houston is a legitimate playoff hopeful, yet the lines they’ve been getting don’t reflect that fact.

The Cold:

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have gone just 2-8 Against the Spread in the last 10 games and have just 4 wins to show for their efforts. The Hawks have been the symbol of mediocrity over the last 3 seasons, securing 41, 43, and 41 wins in the regular season, respectively. However, their offense has truly exploded, causing the sportsbooks to give them far too much respect. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray have been exceptional for the Hawks, but they lack the defense to warrant wide lines on a nightly basis. They are still a .500 team, but the highlight reel offensive breaks have skewed public opinion and caused people to turn a blind eye to their serious defensive issues. All hope is not lost for the Hawks. However, until they can sort themselves out defensively, they will continue to fail to cover hefty spreads in their favor.

Denver Nuggets

The defending champions have gotten off to a slow start, winning 5 of their last 10 games and covering in just 2 of them. It is very understandable that the Nuggets are favorites in most contests. However, with Jamal Murray on the shelf over the last few weeks, the lines haven’t been dropping, Nikola Jokic will always give the Nuggets a chance to win and cover, but without their star point guard they’ve found it difficult to consistently emerge victorious. Their top half defense and offense have been treated like top 5 units, but the fact that they’ve been favorites in every single game this season is ludicrous. The Nuggets are still one of, if not the, best team in the league. However, when they aren’t healthy, and we’re being asked to lay double digit points against any NBA opposition, there is no reason to back the defending champions. Now that Murray is back, it will be a different story, but be very careful putting your hard-earned cash on an overvalued team.

High Scorers:

Indiana Pacers

Is it at all shocking to see the Pacers consistently cashing Overs? Indiana is averaging 127.6 PPG so far this season, blowing the second place 122.5 PPG Hawks out of the water. To put it in perspective, the Hawks are closer to being the 7th ranked team than the 1st. Not only are the Pacers scoring, but they’ve also allowed the most PPG in the league. This has resulted in a respectable 6-4 record over the last 10 games, but the coaching staff will surely be looking to address their defensive issues this season. The Pacers are scoring at a historic rate, and the bookies are trying to keep up. Their total has closed at 235+ points in each of the last 10 games, and 240+ in half of them. Until we start seeing 250+ totals for the Pacers, the Over will continue to be profitable anytime this high-flying team steps onto the court, going 14-2 so far this season.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers offense hasn’t taken a step back since losing James Harden, allowing the Over to cash in 8 of their last 10 games. Their middle of the pack defense will need to improve if they are to remain at the top of the standings, and defensive issues have led to the 76ers going just 5-5 over the last 10 games, after starting the season 7-1. Joel Embiid will continue to push the ball down the opposition’s throats, leading to easy, and quick scores. Their total has closed at 231+ points just 3 times in the last 10 games, as bookies are hesitant to raise it any higher against any top half defenses. However, the defensive responsibility Nick Nurse demands hasn’t been there this season. And while it is fun to watch Tyrese Maxey go coast to coast for easy layups, when the 76ers immediately give up points in the other direction, the Over will continue to be a profitable wager.

Low Scorers:

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are an elite offensive and defensive unit, but when the bookies consistently bump up their totals, they will keep falling under. Boston is 8-2 in their last 10 games but have only cashed the Over 3 times. They’ve held their opponents to 107 points or fewer in 8 of their last 10 and kept them to double digits in 4 of those contests. It is very difficult to expect 225+ points to go through the hoop anytime a defensive unit like the Celtics step onto the court, and their tendency to blow teams out often results in low scoring second halves. Boston will happily keep riding the Under train as long as they keep putting wins on the board, and it’s understandable why the public is hesitant to take the Under with scorers like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum going to work on a nightly basis. However, when the lines are inflated, the Under must be the bet.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are languishing at the bottom of the standings. And despite the fact that their lineup will be getting healthier in the coming weeks, especially with the imminent return of Ja Morant on the horizon, expectations must be curbed. The Grizzlies have cashed the Under in 7 of their last 10 games and have strung together 4 wins in that span. Marcus Smart, Steven Adams, and of course Morant have not been in the lineup, yet the lines have stayed firm in the 225 range. Memphis lacks the offensive firepower to consistently score 110+ points, and their 14th ranked defense is often slept on thanks to poor shooting from themselves. Memphis has the ability to clamp down the opposition, but struggles to score themselves, which is the perfect recipe for the Over. It’s shocking that their total has been Over 220 in 7 of the last 10 games. And until the bookies see the Grizzlies for who they really are, the Under will keep on rolling.

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