Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under
The NBA standings are starting to take shape, and certain teams have been exceeding and falling short of expectations to start the season. All 82 wins are worth the same, and a hot start or digging an early hole can be the difference between playing meaningful April basketball. Here’s the teams that have been the best and worst at covering the spread through the early stages of the season, with the highest and lowest scorers.
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The Hot:
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have shot expectations out of the water, going an incredible 9-1-1 ATS to start the year. Their 6-5 record is nothing to revel over. However, with their 3 losses of 5 or fewer points coming when they were sizable underdogs, the Nets have been filling bettors’ pockets all season long. They’ve been hot from beyond the arc and have been cleaning up the glass, ranking in the top 5 in both of those categories. While they lack a bonafide superstar, they possess the key components of being a successful NBA team. A deep playoff run appears to be a stretch of the imagination, but the Nets will certainly continue to keep these games close as long as they keep getting these favorable lines. Until they start losing, trust Brooklyn to keep finding ways to keep it close, if not win outright.
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers are 8-2 to start the season, covering in all 8 of their wins. We all expected Joel Embiid to pick up where he left off as last season’s MVP, but the fact that the off-court drama surrounding James Harden has been ignored en route to their red-hot start is very impressive. Tyrese Maxey made letting go of the former MVP that much easier, as the explosive guard has gotten off to the best start of his career. His 28.4 PPG is on pace for a career high, and his team high 7.0 Assists have compensated for the league leading 10.7 Assists per game leaving Philly with James Harden. As long as Maxey keeps up his exhilarating style of play, and Embiid keeps flopping his way to the free throw line, the 76ers will keep on putting wins on the board.
The Cold:
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks thought they picked up the missing piece of the puzzle with Damian Lillard, but it has resulted in a 1-8-1 record ATS to start the season. Their defense is what made them great, but the switch from Jrue Holiday, who’s one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, to the lackadaisical Lillard at point guard, has tanked their defensive unit. A 6-4 record is no reason to start ringing the alarm bells, but the Bucks have been unable to cover the 8+ point spreads they are used to seeing attached to their victory. Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo still have a long way to go in developing on-court chemistry. And when the team sorts out their defense, the large spreads they attract will once again be playable.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies lineup is far from what the offseason depth charts were projecting, with injuries and suspensions preventing them from really getting their season going. They are 3-8 ATS and just 2-9 straight up, languishing in the Western Conference basement. Ja Morant’s eventual return to the lineup will give them a boost. However, if they replicate this run of form through the rest of his time on the bench, there will be nothing to play for when he returns. The Grizzlies need to find ways to put wins on the board, but they are a fade at anything close to even odds for the time being.
High Scorers:
Indiana Pacers
Was there any doubt over who would be at the top of this list? The Pacers lead the league in PPG and allow the second most PPG this season. They’ve cashed the Over in 10 of their 11 games this season, despite the total closing at 230+ in each of their last 8 games, and 240+ in 3 of those contests. The pace of play Indiana brings onto the court has them sitting a respectable 7-4 at this stage of the season, and they will continue to bring an electric energy with them whenever they step onto the court. High-scoring, exciting games will be the theme for the Pacers season. And if they can continue to outscore their defensive issues, they could be in the postseason for the first time since 2020.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have their superstar with Victor Wembanyama, but if they don’t sort things out on the defensive end they can kiss this season goodbye. The 124.1 PPG they’ve allowed this season not only leads the league but has allowed them to cash the Over in 9 of their 11 games. Their 3-8 record is expected given the talent on their squad, but Gregg Popovich will not be happy with the defensive workrate. Despite Wembanyama’s size, he hasn’t been able to effectively clean up the defensive glass, allowing for several easy points for the opposition. The Spurs play-in hopes were slim entering the season, and they’ve shrunk even smaller with their slow start.
Low Scorers:
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets used their elite defense to carry them to an NBA championship, and they will happily find themselves in this column if it means they continue to put wins on the board. Their 3-8 Over-Under record has them 9-2 in the standings, and the injury to Jamal Murray means their defense cannot afford to take a step back. Nikola Jokic can do it all on both ends, but he still needs a supporting cast of shooters to succeed. The Nuggets totals have closed at an average
of 224 points, but their elite defense consistently keeps teams under the 105 mark. That’s a lot to ask from their weakened offense, and the Nuggets will keep cashing Unders until the market adjusts to their new brand of basketball.
New York Knicks
The Knicks defensive brand of basketball has returned, with Tom Thibodeau demanding maximum defensive effort whenever his troops step on the court. The Under has cashed in 7 of the 10 Knicks games this season, thanks to a slow pace of play, and the Knicks scoring the least PPG in the league. Their defense only trails the Timberwolves, yet the lines haven’t been adjusting enough to start the year. They’ve seen their total close under 220 only twice this season. And until that becomes the standard, they will keep on cashing the Under. Nothing is changing in New York on either end of the court, as Thibs will be happy with how the opening weeks of the season have gone for the Knicks.
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