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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks on Christmas vs Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/25/2023

by Spencer Toth - 12/22/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo

We’ve got a special edition of the New York Knicks betting report for a high-profile Christmas Day matchup. Throughout the season, Doc’s Sports will be providing you with all your New York Knicks betting needs. Using my knowledge of the Knicks, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end. Due to the holiday season, this article was written prior to the Knicks vs Bucks showdown on Saturday night, and we will be locking in our Christmas Day bets as soon as possible, before the lines shift based on that result.

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On Wednesday night, the Knicks wrapped up a very successful 5-game road trip with a 121-102 victory over the Brooklyn Nets. The Knicks defense is back to their dominant form, after holding their opponents to under 110 points in back-to-back matchups, which was a big difference-maker against the Nets. Brooklyn shot just 37% from the floor, with Spencer Dinwiddie and Mikal Bridges going a combined 7/32 from the field. Julius Randle continued his dominant run of form, scoring 26 points to lead the Knicks to victory. It was the 12th straight game Randle has eclipsed 20 points, and quality shooting combined with tough defense is how the Knicks will put wins on the board throughout the season.

From a betting perspective, we went 1-2. The Knicks easily won as slight -115 favorites on the moneyline, but our pair of double-double picks both fell short, as Randle and Nic Claxton hauled in 7 and 8 rebounds, respectively.

There truly is nothing better than wrapping up Christmas morning with a plethora of high-quality NBA matchups. Kicking the festivities off, the Knicks (16-11) welcome the Milwaukee Bucks (21-7) to Madison Square Garden for their second meeting in as many days. The Bucks got off to a rocky start in the Damian Lillard era, starting the season with a pedestrian 5-4 record. However, since then, they’ve won 16 of their last 19 games, and the offensive wagon in Milwaukee is gaining steam. Giannis Antetokounmpo is leading the way with 30.9 PPG and 11.0 Rebounds, while chipping in with 5.4 Assists. When the “Greek Freak” gains momentum going downhill, he is virtually impossible to stop, and often the only choice is to send the 67% free throw shooter to the foul line.

The lack of Mitchell Robinson inside will hurt New York more against Milwaukee than other opposition, as there is a gaping hole in their interior defense without him. Isiah Hartenstein and Randle will be tasked with slowing the big man down. However, if they fill up the paint, there are more than enough shooters on Milwaukee to make them pay.

Lillard finally has a co-star on his team and will be eager to see what he can do when the postseason rolls around. One of the most clutch shooters in NBA history has lacked the support needed to make a deep playoff run. And while his lack of defense is certainly a stark comparison to the departed Jrue Holiday, he more than makes up for it on the offensive end. His 26.2 PPG on a 38% clip from deep has vaulted the Bucks to the third ranked offensive unit, and even mediocre defense on the other end will be enough to earn Milwaukee victory on a nightly basis.

The Knicks haven’t fared well on Christmas, posting a 23-32 record in franchise history, most recently losing to the 76ers last year. The Bucks are 5-4 on the big day, but they’re also coming off a 139-118 defeat at the hands of the Celtics last year. One of these two teams will get back in the win column, and both will be equally desperate to keep climbing the Eastern Conference standings.

The rise of Julius Randle has seen the effectiveness of Jalen Burnson drop significantly, and the conversation of ‘who is the face of the franchise?’ is suddenly alive again. When left open, Brunson is the significantly better scorer. However, in crunch time, Randle’s ability to make tough, highly contested shots over defenders has seen him with the ball in his hands more often than not. If the tandem can keep their foot on the gas, the Knicks depth scoring and quality defense will allow them to remain among the Eastern Conference heavyweights.

In this matchup, the Knicks are 3-point underdogs and are coming in with +125 odds on the moneyline. This is the first road game for the Bucks in December, as they’ve gone 8-1 during their lengthy home stand, including 6 straight wins heading into their short road trip in New York. These two teams would have once been pegged for a defensive battle, but the defensive intensity has gone out the window for the Bucks and is still questionable for New York. In the second leg of a pair of home games for the Knicks, I expect them to have worked out any defensive kinks against the Bucks in the first matchup, and to secure the outright victory.

New York has the capabilities to keep even the league’s most potent offenses in check. And when Antetokounmpo is fatigued during this matinee game, their bench will be the difference-maker. The Knicks have the luxury of bringing players like Immanuel Quickley and Donte Divincenzo off the bench, while the Bucks second unit is severely handicapped. Jae Crowder has seen better days. And while Cameron Payne came into Milwaukee with plenty of hype surrounding him, his 6.1 PPG has been a non-factor. The Knicks will have the edge when the benches are emptied and will need to take advantage of the critical mites when Antetokounmpo isn’t on the floor. Being able to limit Antetokounmpo will be critical to the Knicks success, but I expect Randle to keep pace with the big man and hit key shots of his own on the other end. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Knicks shock the world and keep the Bucks’ superstars offensive production limited, but it also wouldn’t be crazy to see the Bucks replicate their 146-point outburst against New York in the in-season tournament. However, with the Knicks getting home from their lengthy road trip and enjoying the luxury of spending the holiday season in New York, I expect them to win as home underdogs. Their ability to crash the offensive glass and limit their turnovers will result in 8-10 extra possessions for New York. And with both teams shooting similar clips and frequencies from beyond the arc, the Bucks will need to cherish their possessions and score points the hard way. I just don’t see the Bucks doing that, as the bright lights of a matinee Christmas Day game will get to them, allowing the Knicks to make a big statement win in front of the nation.

Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline +125 2 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 5-3

Spread Record: 8-8

Total Record: 3-5

Player Props Record: 9-16

Total: 25-33

Down 9.5 Units

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