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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/5/2023

by Spencer Toth - 12/5/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Damian Lillard

You have found the right place for all your New York Knicks betting needs, as Doc’s Sports is the place to find the best bets for every weekday New York Knicks matchup. We won’t always favor the Knicks. However, using my knowledge of the Knicks, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit, just like we did last season with the Milwaukee Bucks.

On Thursday Night, the Knicks ousted the Detroit Pistons 118-112. Jalen Brunson poured in 42 points, while shooting 7/12 from behind the arc. The Pistons physicality inside and their elite perimeter shooting almost carried them to victory, as the young Pistons team hung around admirably, but the Knicks superior quality prevailed.

On Friday night, the Knicks showed no signs of fatigue, beating Toronto on their home court 119-106. It was the Knicks 10th win in their last 13 games, as their defense once again stole the show. Brunson was held to just 22 points, and the Knicks needed an all-around team effort to secure the win. Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle scored 21 and 20 points respectively, with 5 Knicks scoring 15+ points in Toronto.

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Tonight, all eyes will be on this Quarterfinal in-season tournament matchup, as it is a ‘win or go home’ situation for both teams. New York (12-7) travels to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks (14-6) in a matchup guaranteed to be filled with fireworks. These two teams squared off earlier in the tournament, with the Bucks winning 110-105 to help them secure top spot in East Group B.

Giannis Antetokounmpo finally has the co-star he’s been craving in Milwaukee, after the front office did all they could to acquire the signature of Damian Lillard. Lillard ended an 11-year career in Portland to come to Milwaukee, and the Bucks were forced to send back Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, and several draft picks. Lillard instantly lifts the Milwaukee offense, but the loss of Holiday at guard has turned a once elite defensive team into a unit filled with defensive liabilities. The Bucks have the 21st rated defense to go with their 5th rated offense, losing their defensive identity with the acquisition of Lillard. When ‘Dame Time’ rolls around, Lillard has been exceptional, but his 25.5 PPG is his second lowest mark over the last 8 seasons, with his 33.6% clip from deep on pace for the second lowest rate of his career. Lillard brings elite ball handling to the table, and the pick and roll game with Antetokounmpo is borderline unstoppable.

However, if they cannot take care of business on the defensive end, their offensive success will go to waste. The Bucks have the size inside to deal with Randle and Mitchell Robinson but have been unable to effectively clean up the glass on the defensive end. Brook Lopez and Antetokounmpo have seen their rebounding numbers decline, resulting in the Bucks ranking 20th in rebounds, despite their towering stature. The Knicks are always hungry on the glass, using their size and grit to secure those valuable second chance points. If the Bucks cannot take care of business inside, they will see themselves get bounced from the tournament at home.

Brunson will be happy to avoid Holiday in this matchup, as Lillard will allow him to continue his offensive hot streak tonight. Brunson leads the team in PPG (24.9) and Assists (5.5), while shooting a very effective 47.2% from behind the arc. His tenacity on both ends of the court has allowed the Knicks to shoot up the standings, and a healthy and motivated Knicks franchise is hungry to build on their first playoff series win since 2013. Silverware is on the line tonight, and there will be no easy possessions for the Bucks. New York takes care of business on the glass and in transition, while posting the 4th best defensive rating. RJ Barrett has the size and footwork to guard almost anyone in the league, while Brunson keeps his hands active on the perimeter. Robinson may not be filling up the hoop, but his team leading 1.5 steals per game and 10.7 rebounds has made him a valuable defensive asset.

We already know what we will get from the Knicks, as Tom Thibodeau accepts nothing less than 100% effort on a nightly basis. However, which Bucks team will we see tonight? Just in the last two games, the Bucks have lost to the Bulls and beat the Hawks. The inconsistency has cost them wins this season. And while their superior offense has been able to outscore their defensive issues, when they come up against legitimate opposition, they often fall short. They failed to beat Boston and Orlando already this season and have padded their record with blowouts over bottom feeders. The Knicks are certainly not a bottom feeder. And despite the fact that the Bucks already beat them this season, I’ll take a stab on the Knicks at (+5) on the spread. In the Bucks first win, they sank 20 3 pointers at a 51% clip, while the Knicks sank 10 while attempting the same number of deep shots. It’s unreasonable to expect the Bucks to find that advantage from deep again. And even with those extra 30 points, they still only won by 5. The Knicks dominated them on the glass, out rebounding them 56-41. When New York inevitably wins the battle in the paint once again, they will not only cover the spread, but are also worth a small sprinkle on the moneyline at +170 odds.

The next bet will be on a Knicks role player who has been helping crash the glass. Josh Hart has his rebound line set at 5.5 boards, after securing 10 rebounds last time these two met. The Bucks aging guards are often flat footed on defense, allowing Hart to do his part on the glass. He’s hauled in 6+ rebounds in each of his last 3 games, and considering he’s a shoe-in for 25, if not 30 minutes of action, he will have plenty of time to do so once again.

Pick: New York Knicks (+5) 2 Units

Pick: New York Knicks ML +170 1 Unit

Pick: Josh Hart Over 5.5 Rebounds -150 2 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 4-2

Spread Record: 6-4

Total Record: 2-4

Player Props Record: 5-11

Total: 17-21

Down 6.6 Units

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