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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/20/2023

by Spencer Toth - 12/20/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Brooklyn Nets Julius Randle

This season, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every New York Knicks game, and providing best bets along the way. We churned a 23-unit profit last year with the Bucks. And by using my knowledge on the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to be just as effective this year.

On Monday Night, the Knicks picked up a valuable road win, leveling up their current road trip record to 2-2. The Knicks defense finally turned up, locking down the Lakers role players to win despite 32 points from Anthony Davis, and a 25-point triple double from LeBron James. The Knicks' depth came in clutch, with Immanuel Quickley’s 20 bench points, and Isiah Hartenstein’s 17 rebounds off the bench being key difference-makers.

From a betting perspective, we had a negative night, as I expected the Lakers to prevail at home. While we correctly nailed Julius Randle to finish with Over 22.5 points, it wasn’t quite enough to offset the Lakers losses.

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Tonight, the Knicks (15-11) wrap up their 5-game road trip with a game back on the East Coast against the Brooklyn Nets (13-13). Since trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at last season’s trade deadline, the trajectory of the Nets franchise has been unclear. They have too many quality pieces to tank, but not enough bonafide star power to challenge for an NBA title. They are sitting in 9th place with a .500 record and will be expected to firmly be in the play-in places when April rolls around. One of the aforementioned assets from the Durant trade is the arrival of Mikal Bridges. Bridges clearly was unhappy to be moving to Brooklyn, but he’s been gelling with his new teammates well, and has gotten off to a solid start to the year. He’s been unable to replicate the 26.1 PPG he had with Brooklyn last season, but he’s shooting the ball more efficiently, and is on track to set career highs in both rebounds and assists. Bridges may not be leading the scoring in Brooklyn, but he is clearly the leader and most important asset on the team. The title of leading scorer goes to Cam Thomas’s 24.4 PPG, but the Nets are just 8-9 with him on the court, as he doesn’t move the ball well, and often takes low percentage, contested jumpers.

This matchup could go a long way in settling the Eastern Conference standings. And with no spread, we are likely in store for a tightly contested matchup. Both of these teams take care of business on the glass, are very effective from beyond the arc, but struggle in many of the other offensive categories. Hartenstein will have his hands full on the glass against Nic Claxton. And with third string center Jericho Sims joining Mitchell Robinson on the injury report, the Knicks are very thin at center. Claxton will happily bully Hartenstein all game long. And while Hartenstein played 38 grueling minutes against the Lakers, expecting him to play nearly 40 minutes on a nightly basis is a tall task. Randle will likely need to go out of his comfort zone and play a few minutes at center for Hartenstein to rest, as the traditional power forward is the only other member of the Knicks squad capable of slowing Claxton down.

On the perimeter, the battle between Cam Thomas and Brunson will be fascinating. Thomas brings maximum intensity whenever he steps on the court. And if Brunson doesn’t match his work rate, the Knicks will struggle to keep up from behind the arc. Both players have the ability to heat up in an instant, and one big scoring run could be enough to give their respective teams a lead when the clock hits 0’s. Thomas and Spencer Dinwiddie have developed quite the connection in the backcourt. And with the defensively lacking Donte DiVincenzo joining Brunson outside, the Nets guards are poised for a very effective night from the outside. One advantage the Knicks have is their size in the mid-court, as RJ Barrett and Randle are tall, physical players, capable of making open jump shots just as easily as rushing the rim. Barrett was expected to be the missing third piece in New York, but the young Canadian has been unable to match his previous season highs. After getting off to a hot start, he’s scored 21 or fewer points in each of his last 4 games, despite taking nearly 13 shot attempts per game. He has the tools he needs to get back on track. And with the undersized Bridges standing across from him, he should be able to get to the rim, and either score or find the open man behind the arc.

There is no spread in this one, leaving the Knicks as the only viable option. The Nets are on a 3-game losing skid, and they cannot be trusted to get out of their slump against a solid Knicks team. The lack of Robinson in the paint has severely hurt the Knicks defense, but it’s only a matter of time until they figure it out. The Knicks have the more well-rounded offense, and the superior defense even without Robinson, and they should be able to gut out a win in what will be a very orange Barclays Center. While this is technically a road game, after spending the last week on the West Coast, the Knicks will be well rested after being back in the comfort of their own homes since Tuesday morning. The rebounding could be an issue, but superior quality on the perimeter will allow the Knicks to make more 3’s and take home the victory.

The second and third bets of the night will be on a pair of double doubles. Hartenstein is a reliable backup, but he will need plenty of help from Randle to help secure valuable rebounds. Randle is sitting at -150 to secure a double-double, something he has done in 5 of his last 10 games. The increased rebounding responsibility he will have with Robinson and Sims on the bench will result in a few extra boards falling his direction, and he should have no problem getting double-digit points, something he has done in 21 straight games. The second bet of the night will be on Claxton to also secure a double-double at +160 odds. It may seem odd to go for opposing bets. However, when a tired Hartenstein is forced to box out, Claxton will have plenty of chances to not only secure rebounds, but make easy putbacks in the process. His points and rebound line sit at 12.5 and 9.5 respectively, making this plus money bet too good to pass up. There should be plenty of 3’s taken, and rebounds available, and I expect both players to have their fair share of rebounding opportunities.

Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline -115 2 Units

Pick: Julius Randle Double Double -150 2 Units

Pick: Nic Claxton Double Double +160 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 4-3

Spread Record: 8-8

Total Record: 3-5

Player Props Record: 9-14

Total: 24-30

Down 8.3 Units

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