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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/15/2023

by Spencer Toth - 12/15/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Phoenix Suns Jusuf Nurkic

Throughout the regular season, Doc’s Sports is the place to get all your New York Knicks betting needs. Using a combination of in-depth knowledge on the Knicks, and the league as whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.

On Wednesday night, the Knicks fell to the Jazz 117-113 on the first leg of a 5-game road trip. Their defense turned the corner, finally limiting their opponent to Under 120 points for the first time in 4 games, but their offense was unable to replicate their efficiency in recent weeks. Julius Randle continued his dominant run, putting up 32 points, but Utah was led by a season high 26 points from Colin Sexton. The Knicks played well, generating a +7 turnover margin, but their inability to knock down their foul shots (22/32) led to their eventual demise.

From a betting perspective, we had a perfect night. Our monster 4-unit play on Utah +6 cashed with ease, as the Jazz not only covered the spread as home underdogs but won outright. The Over 228.5 cashed by the finest of margins, and Randle easily surpassed his 23.5 Points mark in the closing seconds of the third quarter. We’ll be looking to keep that momentum up in tonight’s matchup, as the Knicks (13-10) have their hands full with a challenging visit to Phoenix to take on the Suns (13-11).

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The Suns have yet to reap the rewards of their offseason moves, as Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker have yet to remain healthy enough to generate the chemistry needed to put wins on the board. Their Wednesday night defeat to the Nets was the first time all 3 had been on the court together this season, and it’s understandable that they fell short. Booker and Durant have been exceptional in Phoenix, posting a 15-4 record when they share the floor, and Beal could end up strengthening their title credentials even further. Both stars are more than capable scorers from all 3 levels, and their size and speed make them tough guards for any opposition. Booker is in the midst of his 9th season in Phoenix, and the superstar just keeps getting better. He set a career high in PPG last season (27.8) and is on pace to break it once again with 28.1 PPG this campaign. His ability to pull up from deep with just a few inches of space is unmatched in the NBA, but his shooting is not all he brings to the table. His 6.1 Rebounds and 8.3 Assists are also career best marks, and despite the presence of former MVP Durant, Booker is the one leading the show in Phoenix.

The addition of Beal hasn’t gone to plan, but it isn’t time to throw in the towel just yet. There is still plenty of season for the Suns to build the chemistry between their superstars, and right the ship. However, in a crowded Western Conference playoff picture, with the Suns currently in 10th place despite their positive record, they cannot afford to keep dropping winnable matchups. 

A visit from the slumping Knicks is a great chance to get another win on the board, as a once formidable New York defense has crumbled in recent weeks. New York still sports a top half defensive rating. However, after being in the top 5 in the early stages of the season, they have seen a steep decline. The absence of their lead rim protector Mitchell Robinson has depleted their front court. And with Robinson on the shelf for 8+ weeks, the Knicks need to find a solution, and soon. Their defensive structure is their strong suit, and a few flashy games from their mediocre offensive pieces has put a bandaid over the bullet hole in the Knicks defense. Randle cannot be expected to keep delivering exceptional offensive showings. And when he inevitably regresses back to the mean, the Knicks will be in a world of pain. 

Jusuf Nurkic will be a critical piece to the Suns title hopes, and a favorable matchup inside will allow the former Trail Blazer to flex his muscles on both ends of the court. No disrespect to Isiah Hartenstein, but Nurkic is a borderline All-Star caliber talent, and Hartenstein will be in over his head inside the painted area. Hartenstein lacks the rebounding abilities Robinson brings to the floor. And if the Knicks can’t clean up the glass, they will be in for a long evening in the desert.

Nurkic is coming off a 22-rebound performance against Nic Claxton and the Nets, and he will be very confident he can post another effective statline on the glass. It’s a small sample size, but when Beal and Nurkic take the court together, Nurkic has averaged 13.8 rebounds per game, cleaning up the lack of effort Beal brings on the glass. His line is sitting at a mere 10.5 rebounds, and he should have no problem surpassing that total. This will be the first bet of the evening. 

Next up is the spread. New York are moderate 5-point road underdogs, but an electric home crowd eager to see what their ‘Big 3’ has to offer will spur the Suns to a sizable victory. New York has lost their identity, and a lengthy road trip could not be coming at a worse time. The Suns shoot and move the ball very well, and it will take yet another herculean effort from Randle to keep this one close. He has the ability to knock down tough shots like few others in the league, but the valuable extra possessions Phoenix will be getting on the offensive end will lead to several open looks, and easy baskets. Poor showings on Wednesday from both teams has kept this spread low, but the hometown Suns should have a much easier task at getting back on track. Grab the Suns at -5 while you still can, as I expect this spread to inflate over the course of the day.

Pick: Jusuf Nurkic Over 10.5 Rebounds 4 Units

Pick: Phoenix Suns (-5) 2 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 4-3

Spread Record: 8-5

Total Record: 3-5

Player Props Record: 7-14

Total: 22-27

Down 7.0 Units

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