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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/13/2023

by Spencer Toth - 12/13/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Utah Jazz Lauri Markkanen

You have found the right place for all your New York Knicks betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks game and giving out best bets along the way. 

The Knicks got back on track after losing back-to-back games, beating the Raptors at Madison Square Garden, 136-130. Julius Randle was borderline unstoppable, pouring in 36 points in the victory, while tacking on 8 rebounds and 5 assists. The Knicks shot the ball well from behind the arc, allowing them to secure the victory despite missing 8 free throws and turning the ball over a whopping 15 times.

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From a betting perspective, we went 1-2. Precious Achiuwa fell just short of his rebounding prop, hauling in 5 rebounds when he needed Over 5.5, and the total of 221 was surpassed early in the 4th quarter. Our lone victory was on Jalen Brunson, as we correctly identified he would have a quiet night with OG Annunoby locking him down on the perimeter.

Tonight, the Knicks for the first game of a 5-game West Coast road trip. The Knicks (13-9) first stop is in Utah, to take on the Jazz (7-16). Utah has been reeling, losing 5 of their last 6 games. Lauri Markkanen has been out of the lineup, but he should give the Jazz a lift as he is set to make his return tonight. The Jazz are too good to tank but not good enough to make a realistic push for the playoffs, leaving them in a tough situation. They have the budding young talents rising teams need but lack the ability to put it all together late in games. They are bottom 5 in both offensive, and defensive ratings, but the return of their household names will allow them to improve in both categories.

Markkanen is not the only star set to return, as Walker Kessler should be good to go after missing the last week of action. The Jazz faithful will be eager to see a mostly healthy unit get back in action, and an inconsistent Knicks team is the perfect opportunity to test their mettle. 

What is wrong in New York? The Knicks were one of the elite defensive units after the first month of the season, keeping their opposition to 120 points or fewer in each of their first 19 games. Since then, they’ve given up 130+ in 3 straight games, leading to a pair of defeats. Allowing the offensive juggernauts that are the Bucks and Celtics to light up the scoreboard is one thing, but when the lowly Raptors are posting 130 points on the Knicks home court, alarm bells are certainly going off for Tom Thibodeau and the rest of the coaching staff. The Knicks offense has been equally as surprising as their defense, as after a poor start to the season, they’ve turned it around and are suddenly piling on the points. However, it is the Knicks defense that has gotten them in the top 5 in the East in 2 of the last 3 seasons, and they will need their defense to snap back to their early-season form if they are to start putting wins on the board. Their perimeter defense has been solid, but their inability to shut down the lane has resulted in countless easy shots for their opposition. The absence of Mitchell Robinson could not have come at a worse time for New York, as they will have their hands full inside with an eager Kessler ready to make an instant impact.

On the plus side, we have seen Randle rapidly improve after his early season woes, allowing the Knicks to keep pace with their suddenly porous defensive unit. After shooting under 25% through the first 7 games of the season, Randle has scored 20+ in 7 straight games, consistently getting the tough shots to fall. His footwork and frame make him a tough guard for almost every NBA defender, and his ability to knock down tough jumpers leaves defenses scratching their heads.

In this matchup, the Knicks are coming in as 6-point road favorites, and I simply cannot get behind this line. Markkanen and Kessler’s return to the lineup will give the Jazz ample opportunities to get out of their rut. And while the absence of Jordan Clarkson is crucial, an injection of offense from Markkanen will limit the hole he leaves. The Jazz are certainly not challenging for a title anytime soon, but they are more than good enough to keep this one close at home. The Knicks usual rebounding advantage will not be there, as the Jazz take care of business on the glass, and the Knicks will be without their top rebounder in Robinson. Isaiah Hartenstein has filled in admirably, but the second-round pick doesn’t have what it takes to dominate the glass like Robinson does. The Jazz will be able to get valuable second chance points and limit the Knicks effectiveness of the offensive glass. A week ago, I would be all over the Knicks to flex their defensive muscles against a weak Jazz offense, but their recent form has me hesitant. The Knicks do not deserve to be heavy road favorites against a recently healthy Jazz unit, and I will happily grab the 6 points on the spread with Utah.

The next bet will be on the Over, which is sitting at 228 points. New York has sailed over this total in each of their last 3 games. And between the improved form of Randle, a steady Jalen Brunson, and a weakened defensive unit, they should do so once again. There are no rest issues in this matchup, so both teams should be fresh and ready to fill up the hoop. The Jazz lack the size needed to handle Randle in the open court, and the return of their stars will result in Utah doing their part on the offensive end.

Finally, we’ll be riding the hot hand and tailing Randle’s points prop at 23.5. Randle has been taking and making plenty of shots in the Knicks recent games, and his growing offensive presence will be on full display in Utah. Whether it’s John Collins or Simone Fontecchio guarding him, Randle will be able to bully his way to the rim and keep his opposition honest with a few pull-up jumpers. He’s cashed this line in 5 of his last 7 games, and a generous Utah defense will not be the ones to snap that streak.

Pick: Utah Jazz (+6) 4 Units

Pick: Jazz vs Knicks Over 228.5 1 Unit

Pick: Julius Randle Over 23.5 Points 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 4-3

Spread Record: 7-5

Total Record: 2-5

Player Props Record: 6-14

Total: 19-27

Down 12.7 Units

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