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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/11/2023

by Spencer Toth - 12/11/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors Precious Achiuwa

Throughout the regular season, I will be breaking down every single New York Knicks game, and giving out my best bets. Just as we did with the Milwaukee Bucks last season, where we churned a solid profit, by using my knowledge of the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to finish this year with a tidy profit.

The in-season tournament is now in the rearview mirror, after the Knicks were bounced in the semifinals by the Bucks. On Friday night, New York took a consolation trip to Boston to take on the Celtics, where they lost 133-123. Jayson Tatum and Derrick White scored 25 and 30 points, respectively, and the Knicks lost by double digits despite out rebounding the Celtics by 10 and shooting the same splits from beyond the arc. New York was unable to lean on their usually elite defensive scheme, and the Eastern Conference leaders made it look easy on the offensive end.

The alarm bells will be ringing as the Knicks gave up 120 or fewer points in each of their first 19 games, before giving up 133, and 146 points in their last 2 games. Their elite defense is what has kept their struggling offense afloat, and they cannot afford to lose the defensive tenacity that has frustrated so many teams this season.

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From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. The Celtics covered the 7-point spread as expected, but Julius Randle was unable to come up with his fair share of rebounds, as Isaiah Hartenstein was a vacuum on the glass, securing 16 boards in 29 minutes of action.

Tonight, the Knicks (12-8) are back home at Madison Square Garden, as they welcome the Toronto Raptors (9-13) to New York from North of the border. The Raptors have lost 5 of their last 6 games and are on the outside looking in regarding any type of postseason play. The loss of Fred VanVleet in the offseason has dramatically altered the trajectory of this Raptors franchise, as they have struggled to keep up offensively late in games. Along with VanVleet, Pascal Siakam has been the face of the franchise for the last several seasons, but the 6-foot-9 Cameroon native has struggled to replicate his previous season form. His 20.7 PPG is by far the lowest in the last 5 seasons, and his abysmal 20.5% success rate from beyond the arc has made him a non-impact from deep. Siakam’s post play is always firing on all cylinders. However, without the deep shot to keep defenders honest, he’s been unable to get to the basket with the same efficiency. The drop off in offense for Siakam has allowed Scottie Barnes to blossom, and the third-year player will be eager to build on his Rookie of the Year campaign, rather than his slow sophomore season. Barnes is on track to post career highs in PPG (19.8) 3-point percentage (38.3%), and assists (5.6). His defense has also improved, with 9.2 Rebounds and 1.7 Steals both being respective career highs too. A few seasons ago, the Raptors were ready to trade for Kevin Durant in an attempt to shoot up the standings but refused to give up Barnes in any package. The decision to hold on to their rising star has proved to be fruitful, as they are reaping the rewards with Barnes’ growth, and have a valuable member of the squad to build around if they choose to blow up the team.

In this matchup, the Knicks and Raptors both prioritize defense, but struggle on the offensive end. Even with the recent Knicks defensive meltdowns, New York and Toronto both have Top 10 defenses, and inferior offenses. The size of Randle and Hartenstein will give the Raptors problems inside, as Mitchell Robinson will be sitting this one out. Jakob Poeltl is their only real center on the Raptors roster, but their team rebounding and the development of Barnes has allowed them to hold their own on the glass, and they are just behind the Knicks in that category.

This is a game the Knicks must win if they except a top 6 seed in the East when April rolls around. A slumping Raptors side with a real lack of identity should not be able to walk into MSG and walk out with a win. Their lackluster offense will give New York a solid chance to get their suddenly porous defense back on track. I won’t be picking a side in this matchup, as the 4.5 point spread in favor of New York feels about right. Both of these teams will be desperate to get back into the win column, but it feels as though a tight Knicks victory is on the cards. The Raptors lack the bonafide superstars to go shot for shot with Jalen Brunson and Randle, but their team spirit and hustle stats will be enough to prevent this one from slipping away from them. However, there is still plenty of money to be made in this matchup.

The first bet of the evening will be targeting Precious Achiuwa on the Raptors. The Raptors bench player has been a menace on the glass, securing 6.2 Rebounds per game in just 18 minutes. Otto Porter Jr. will be out for Toronto, which will result in Achiuwa and Poeltl evenly  splitting the time at center. Achiuwa plays with the energy needed to chase down loose balls, and without Robinson squaring off against him, he will have a favorable matchup for a majority of the game inside. His line is sitting at 5.5 Rebounds, juiced evenly with the Over/Under, which is far too low. Favorable matchups and increased minutes are a recipe for rebounds, and Achiuwa should have no problem doing his fair share on the glass and cashing this prop.

The next bet of the night will be on Brunson. Brunson has a 24.5 Point line, and with an elite on ball defender in OG Anunoby squaring off against him, he will struggle to improve his 24.8 PPG this season. If Annunoby were on a better team, he would be deservedly in the DPOY conversation. There are few defenders who can lock up elite guards like Annunoby can, and he was able to limit Brunson to just 22 points on 21 shot attempts when these two met a week ago. Brunson will happily play provider, and we will happily tail his under as he failed to fill up the hoop against a tough matchup.

Finally, we will be sprinkling on the Under. The line is set at 221, which is a reasonable NBA total. However, with two solid defensive units eager to get back on track, we could see a slow paced, defensive battle brewing in New York. I’m not calling for a 95-90 snoozefest, but this line is just high enough to give us some wiggle room with the Under, as long as these two teams stay reasonable from behind the arc.

Pick: Precious Achiuwa Over 5.5 Rebounds 3 Units

Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 24.5 Points 2 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Raptors Under 221 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 4-3

Spread Record: 7-5

Total Record: 2-4

Player Props Record: 5-13

Total: 18-25

Down 10.7 Units

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