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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/3/2023

by Spencer Toth - 11/3/2023

free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks Damian Lillard

The debut of the in-season tournament is scheduled for tonight, with the Knicks kicking off the festivities against their longtime rival, the Milwaukee Bucks.

On Wednesday night, the Knicks were defeated by the Cleveland Cavaliers 95-89. They ended up splitting the mini-series 1-1 after beating the Cavs on Tuesday. However, with an opportunity to build some momentum heading into their first tournament game, the Knicks fell short, going just 5/30 from behind the arc in the loss.

From a betting perspective, we also fell short. The lack of quality shots for the Knicks didn’t allow them to cover the spread or do their part in cashing the over. The salt in the wounds was Mitchell Robinson, falling one point short of cashing Over 6.5 points, after going 4/8 from the free throw line.

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Tonight, the New York Knicks (2-3) head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks (2-2) in the first ever in-season tournament matchup. The Knicks are placed in a group with the Bucks, Heat, Hornets, and Wizards. Only the top team is guaranteed a place in the next round, with the best 2 of the 6 second place teams joining them in the quarterfinals. After that, the 8 remaining teams are placed in a bracket, with single elimination games taking place until the Final in Las Vegas on December 9. In the tournament opener, if the Knicks fall to the Bucks, they will need to win all 3 of their other games and get some help around the league to have any chance of qualifying for the next round. Considering the group stage is just 4 games long, a single loss could send a heavyweight home early.

Milwaukee made headlines by trading away Jrue Holiday, among others, in exchange for future hall of famer Damian Lillard. A 2-2 start with a pair of 17+ point losses to the Raptors and Hawks wasn’t how the Bucks planned on starting their season, but they can make all that pain go away with a win over the Knicks. Giannis Antetokounmpo is desperate to add silverware to his mantle, and his 24.5 PPG to start the season will need to tick up slightly for that to happen. While there is no doubt that Antetokounmpo is the best on the team, and quite possibly the league, the Bucks season rests on the shoulders of Lillard. We know what we will get out of Antetokounmpo on a nightly basis, as he has already led the Bucks to a championship in 2020. However, Lillard hasn’t played with significant expectations behind his success in recent years in Portland. And if the 33-year-old wilts under the bright lights, Milwaukee may not be able to live up to their lofty expectations.

In tonight’s matchup, the Knicks are coming in as 5.5-point road underdogs, with both teams looking to right the ship on a rocky start to the season. The battle inside between Antetokounmpo and Robinson won’t be making headlines, but Robinson has the strength to deal with the ‘Greek Freak’ inside and struggles with more mobile matchups. He will fail to grab any offensive rebounds. However, on the defensive end he can box out and prevent Antetokounmpo from easy put backs. When Antetokounmpo gets going downhill, he’s virtually impossible to stop. However, between Robinson and Isiah Hartenstein, the Knicks won’t mind sending the 64.1% free throw shooter to the line. The Bucks lineup featuring two bigs with Brook Lopez, and Antetokounmpo will force Julius Randle to put in some extra work on the defensive end, which could be exactly what he needs to kick his offensive game into gear. Randle hasn’t had a hot start to the season, after struggling last year since Jalen Brunson’s arrival. It is clear that Brunson is now the face of the franchise, and Randle will need to find a way to reignite the spark inside him. An early season, high stakes battle with a former league MVP may be exactly what the doctor ordered.

While the matchups inside will be fun to watch, the battle on the perimeter between Brunson and Lillard will steal the spotlight. Lillard hasn’t gotten off to a great start in Milwaukee, scoring just 21.8 PPG. However, when ‘Dame Time’ rolls around, he is a hard man to stop. Both of these talented point guards have mesmerizing ball handling skills and the shooting ability to pull up at a moment’s notice.

However, I think that tonight is finally the time we see Lillard show up in a big way, and I’ll be taking the Milwaukee Bucks moneyline as the first bet of the night. The Knicks are far too inconsistent in the shooting department to keep up with the Bucks. Antetokounmpo and Lopez will be able to get the job done inside. And when Lillard finally comes to life in a high stakes matchup, it could be ‘Dame Time’ for all 48 minutes. New York is a streaky team. And with RJ Barrett questionable, they don’t have the consistent perimeter shooting to make the Bucks pay. They can move the ball well all they want, but it won’t matter if they don’t knock down the open looks.

For the second bet of the night, we’re going to be skipping Lillard Over 25.5 points, and instead target the juicier payout with Lillard to score 35+ at +600 odds. It is only a matter of time before we see Lillard erupt for his first big night in a Bucks uniform. And in his tournament debut, it would be the perfect time to do so. At +600 odds, I like the chances that Lillard catches fire at some point during tonight’s game.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline -235 3 Units

Pick: Damian Lillard 35+ Points +600 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 1-0

Spread Record: 2-1

Total Record: 1-2

Player Props Record: 1-3

Total: 5-6

Down 0.8 Units

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