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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/28/2023

by Spencer Toth - 11/28/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs. Charlotte Hornets Jalen Brunson

The Knicks are slated to square off against the Charlotte Hornets tonight, and the fate of their in-season tournament life hangs in the balance. New York is currently sitting 2-1 in the in-season tournament, and will need to win, and win big, to edge out the fellow 3-1 teams to advance. This season, Doc Sports will be bringing you insights into every single New York Knicks matchup, with best bets to go with it. The stakes couldn’t be higher for New York, in what will truly go down as a season defining matchup.

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On Friday night, the Knicks erased a 21-point deficit to take down the Miami Heat to stay alive in the in-season tournament. Jalen Brunson led the way with 24 points, as New York leaned on their defense to limit the Heat to just 11 points in the fourth quarter.

From a betting perspective, we went even. The Knicks furious comeback cashed our massive 4-unit moneyline bet on them, but Bam Adebayo was surprisingly effective on the glass, hauling in 12 rebounds, sailing over his 10.5 rebound line. It was a 1-1 night, with a marginal loss thanks to the juice, but we will be back in the win column tonight.

The Knicks fell to the Suns on Sunday night, despite a Herculean 35-point effort from Brunson. Brunson has now led the Knicks in scoring in 5 straight games, pouring in 29.6 PPG over that span. Tom Thibodeau will not be happy that the Knicks were out hustled on defense, and were lackadaisical on the glass, but they will have to set their sights on tonight’s must win matchup.

The Knicks (9-7, 2-1 in the tournament) will not only need to beat the Charlotte Hornets (5-10, 1-2 in the tournament), but they will need to beat them badly. Never before in the NBA have we had a reason for teams to continue to pour it on late in a game. However, with point differential being a crucial tiebreaker for the slew of 3-1 teams that will be tied for the wild card positions, the Knicks will have no choice but the keep their foot on the gas for the entire 48 minutes.

The Hornets are well outside a playoff position, and are already eliminated from the tournament, but they are also not among the absolute worst teams in the league. LaMelo Ball has been leading the way for the Hornets, posting 24.7 PPG with a team leading 8.2 Assists. Ball has the flashy style needed to sell tickets, but he is also responsible with the ball, and leads the team with a 39% clip from behind the arc. The Hornets rebuild appears to be coming to an end, and they have just been bolstered with the return of two huge names. Terry Rozier is back from a lengthy injury and scored 22 points in his return on Sunday. Rozier can pass the ball well but lacks the 3-point shooting to compete with the league’s best guards. His midrange and driving layups are among the best in the league. However, without the ability to score from all 3 levels, his game is capped. Another man getting back into the rotation is Miles Bridges. Bridges was suspended for the opening 10 games of the season after several domestic violence incidents. And while he won’t be the most popular player in the league, he has made an instant impact for the Hornets. Ball is expected to be on the bench tonight for the first time this season with an ankle injury, forcing Rozier and Bridges to step up if the Hornets want to keep this one respectable.

I couldn’t be more excited for tonight’s matchup, as it is very rare we get to see teams continue to keep their foot on the gas, regardless of the scoreline. If the Knicks are up a boatload of points late in the 4th quarter, it would not be surprising to see the starters stay in, to keep the point differential as wide as possible. New York has been rolling in recent weeks, winning 7 of their last 10 games, while showing improvement on both ends of the court. They are still among the best defensive units in the league. And now that Julius Randle has had time to shake the rust off of his offseason surgery, the Knicks are looking like a top Eastern Conference seed once again.

Brunson continues to pour it in the hoop. And with a line of 25.5 Points tonight, I will happily take his over. The fact that the Knicks will not be relenting despite a wide scoreline is not baked into these lines, as there is no reason Brunson’s line should be at his season average, against the worst ranked defense in the league. Under normal circumstances, the Knicks would happily let Brunson sit the entire 4th quarter of what should be a blowout game, preventing him from adding to his total. However, the exact number of points needed to qualify will not be known until the later games tip off, so New York will be forced to show no mercy against Charlotte.

This leads me into the next bets of the night, which is New York Knicks (-12), and New York Knicks (-20) at +300 odds. In all likelihood, the -750 Knicks will win this game by a wide margin. Usually, teams are happy to play their bench players in the 4th quarter of a blowout, allowing for a ‘backdoor cover’ to come through. However, New York will not relent, and the juicy odds available for a big Knicks home victory are too good to pass up. The Knicks are vastly superior on the defensive end, and a lackluster Charlotte offense will struggle to score triple digits on the road. The Knicks could easily win by 30+ points, and the +300 odds on offer for a 20+ point win are too good to pass up.

Pick: New York Knicks (-12) 5 Units 

Pick: New York Knicks (-20) +300 1 Units

Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points 2 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 4-2

Spread Record: 4-3

Total Record: 2-3

Player Props Record: 5-10

Total: 15-18

Down 8.3 Units

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