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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/24/2023

by Spencer Toth - 11/24/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Miami Heat Jimmy Butler

A season defining clash between the Knicks and Heat is slated to tip off tonight, with both teams desperate to further their chance in the in-season tournament. Throughout the season, Doc Sports will meticulously analyze every single New York Knicks game, providing insights on the best bets available on a nightly basis.

On Monday night, the Knicks suffered their heaviest defeat of the season, succumbing 117-100 against the Minnesota Timberwolves. New York had their 3-game win streak snapped, after shooting just 35% from the floor, and 24% from behind the arc. Jalen Brunson led the way with 25 points, and Mitchell Robinson had another solid showing, posting his 3rd double-double of the season. Despite admirable efforts on the glass, the Knicks shooting inefficiencies rendered them unable to take advantage of the 12 extra shots they attempted on Monday night. 

From a betting perspective, we had a poor night. The Knicks failed to cash our plus money bet on the moneyline, and the Under missed by just 2 points. There’s a plethora of betting markets available for tonight’s matchup, and we will get back into the win column during this crucial tournament face off.

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The New York Knicks (8-6) already dropped a tournament game to the Celtics. And with the Heat (10-5) boasting a perfect 2-0 record in the tournament, a loss would effectively end New York’s chances of taking home the inaugural championship. After starting the season 1-4, the Heat have emerged victorious in 9 of their last 10 games, shooting up the Eastern Conference standings in the process. Their defensive prowess has been restored, complemented by the scoring proficiency of Tyler Herro, who, though absent from tonight's game, has been the team's consistent leading scorer with 22.9 points per game. With Herro on the shelf, the offensive responsibilities fall onto the shoulders of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, who cannot afford to take a night off without their star point guard. Adebayo has increased his work on the glass, and his 10.2 Rebounds will be critical against a big Knicks opposition. Butler can take care of the scoring, but if Adebayo falls asleep in the paint, the Knicks will happily add to their 2nd best total of 14.3 offensive rebounds per game. Miami lacks the size in their lineup to compete on the glass but cannot afford to let the Knicks get too far ahead in the rebounding department if they want this one to stay close. While there are plenty of reasons Miami was able to advance to the NBA Finals last season, the fate of this team rests on the shoulders of Jimmy Butler. Butler has made countless clutch shots throughout his career and is a capable scorer from all the levels. RJ Barrett will be tasked with slowing Butler down, and he will need to move his feet in the open floor to avoid allowing Butler to get hot from the mid range. Butler’s isolation game in the open court is one of the deadliest in the league, as the Marquette product needs just an inch of space to put up an effective jump shot.

The Knicks poor shooting cost them against the Timberwolves, but if they out hustle the Heat on the glass and limit their turnovers once again, they should have more success on offense. A cold shooting night can spoil any team's chances of winning. And against the elite defense Miami brings on a nightly basis will not give the Knicks any free baskets.

Ultimately, I don’t see how Miami keeps up with a healthy Knicks unit. The elevated play of RJ Barrett to pair with the star power Julius Randle and Brunson bring to the court has allowed the Knicks to boast an 8-6 record, despite the 28th ranked field goal percentage this season. Barrett has taken a real step forward this season, winning 6 of the 9 games he’s suited up in this season. His effective post game and ability to knock down corner 3’s is quickly turning him into the second option behind Brunson, and the 23-year-old is developing into a legitimate NBA star.

In tonight’s matchup, New York will emerge victorious. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and will be able to exploit that gaping weakness in the Heat’s game. Miami lacks the size to keep up with New York in the paint, and unless they go ice cold from the floor once again, they will walk away with the win. Robinson and Randle will bully Adebayo and whoever else Miami throws into the paint when chasing down loose balls, and those valuable extra possessions will quickly pile up on the scoreboard. It’s always dangerous to fade a streaking Heat team, but the Knicks have won 3 straight home games and they’ll be able to make it 4 straight tonight. They are coming in as 5.5-point favorites, but I’ll eat the chalk and just play them on the -220 moneyline instead. This one will come right down to the wire, but the hustle stats will tilt the contest in favor of the home team.

The second bet for the evening will be targeting Bam Adebayo, as I struggle to see him collecting Over 10.5 Rebounds in tonight’s contest. Robinson and Randle will be dominant in the paint, and expecting Adebayo to collect more than his average of 10.2 Rebounds this season is a tall task. These teams play at a very slow pace, and I’m expecting fewer shots to go up, and fewer rebounds to be available. Adebayo lacks the physicality to challenge the Knicks big men inside, and when he’s tasked with an increased portion of the Heat’s offensive responsibilities with Herro on the bench, his commitment to hauling in rebounds will be tested. New York consistently takes care of business on the glass, and they will ensure Adebayo stays well under this mark.

Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline -220 4 Units

Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 10.5 Rebounds -120 3 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 3-2

Spread Record: 4-3

Total Record: 2-3

Player Props Record: 5-9

Total: 14-17

Down 7.3 Units

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