Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/15/2023

by Spencer Toth - 11/15/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks Trae Young

The Knicks and Hawks square off tonight, in what has become a heated rivalry in recent years. This season, Doc’s Sports is the place to be for every single New York Knicks game, with free best bets coming at you on a nightly basis.

On Monday Night, The Knicks fell to the Boston Celtics 114-98, for their first double digit loss of the season. They shot just 42% from the floor throughout the contest and were unable to consistently get their offense going. Their usually reliable bench scored just 15 points while going 4/18 from the floor, as the loss of RJ Barrett played a significant role in deciding the result. Jayson Tatum’s 35 points were enough to push Boston over the line, and the Knicks 4th quarter collapse cost them the game.

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From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. The Knicks failed to cover the spread, but the Under cashed by a significant margin. The Knicks have cashed the Under in 7 of their 10 games so far this season, thanks to strong defense combined with ineffective offense.

Tonight, the Knicks (5-5) travel to Atlanta to take on Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks (6-4). The Hawks and Knicks developed an intense rivalry after their 2021 playoff series. The Hawks prevailed 4 games to 1, and Trae Young consistently taunted the MSG crowd. He’s failed to replicate that postseason success in recent years, but the Knicks faithful have not forgotten the disrespect he laid on their franchise. These two teams met once before this season, with the Knicks coming out on top by a score of 126-120. While the Knicks won the previous meeting, the 120 points New York gave up is the highest all season long, and Tom Thibodbeau will not be letting his subordinates forget that. The total on offer of 228.5 points is the highest Knicks total since these two teams met in the second game of the season, as the Knicks defense is once again expected to be breached by a free-flowing Hawks offense.

Trae Young’s success determines the ceiling of this franchise, and he’s been living up to expectations to start the year. He’s scored 24.4 PPG and is second in the league with 10.2 Assists per game. His impact on offense cannot be overstated, as his ability to pull up from anywhere inside the logo stretches defenses and has allowed him to find the open man. He missed the Hawks game last night to witness the birth of his daughter, but he’s expected to suit up for a pivotal clash in the middle of the Eastern Conference standings.

The Knicks identity as a strong, defensive minded franchise has returned, but the personnel has changed. Julius Randle continues to find himself sliding down the pecking order in New York, with RJ Barrett now leading the team with his 22.6 PPG. Barrett attempts 16.1 shots per game compared to Randles 17.1, yet he drains 7.9 buckets compared to Randles 5.8. Considering Randle had offseason surgery, it’s understandable that he’s taken some time to get back to speed, but it’s only a matter of time before the 23-year-old rising star usurps his spot as the second option behind Jalen Brunson.

While Randle has been unable to consistently score, he is still helping the team in other ways. His 10.3 Rebounds per game is a career high. And with Mitchell Robinson also hauling in 11.4 Rebounds, the Knicks effectively clean up the glass, and give themselves extra possessions over the course of a game. They rank second in the league with 47.7 Rebounds per game, which is especially impressive considering they play at the league’s slowest pace, resulting in fewer shots being attempted, and rebounds being available. If they could improve their league low 42.8% field goal percentage, the Knicks would find themselves quickly amassing wins. It’s not all on Randle, as Brunson is also below the league average with a 42.3% clip from the floor, but the former All-Star must improve his 33.9% success rate.

Against the Hawks, it will be fascinating to see if the Knicks slow defensive unit, or the Hawks fast paced offensive fireworks, come out on top. The Hawks love to run and gun up and down the court, but it also results in them consistently turning the ball over. New York takes care of the ball, cleans up the glass, and once their mid range shots start to hit the bottom of the bucket, the Knicks will be a real threat in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks lack the defensive workrate to counteract New York. And if the Knicks can even flirt with the league average in shooting, this one will be over as a contest sooner than later. New York’s defense allowed 120 points against the Hawks last time out, and they will not be eager to do so once again. With a non-existent spread, I’ll happily take the Knicks to get the victory at -115 odds against the Hawks.

For the second bet of the night, we will look to the player prop market. Robinson and Randle hauled in 13 and 12 rebounds, respectively, last time these two teams met. And with Clint Capela being the only real presence in the paint for Atlanta, I’m expecting another solid day from the Knicks big men. Both of their lines are sitting at 9.5 rebounds, juiced evenly, and I’m expecting 1, if not both to surpass that mark. It certainly feels as though the worst case scenario is we go 1-1 on these props. However, the reality is the Knicks aren’t used to playing at the high pace the Hawks bring to the court, and this line has not been properly adjusted. More shots equals more rebounds, and the Knicks big men will be feasting on the glass once again.

Finally, we have no choice but to target Trae Young. His Over/Under is set at 25.5 Points, and odds of +200 are on offer for 30+ points. Young’s family just got bigger yesterday, and he will have a special fire in his chest for tonight’s game. His teammates will have just played a tough in-season tournament game last night, and their tired legs will be more than happy to let Young fire off 3 after 3. His 24.4 PPG this season is slightly below this Over/Under, but the impact of becoming a new father cannot be ignored. Expect Young to put on a show at home, and consistently fill up the hoop.

Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline -115 1 Unit

Pick: Mitchell Robinson Over 9.5 Rebounds 2 Units

Pick: Julius Randle Over 9.5 Rebounds 2 Units

Pick: Trae Young Over 25.5 Points 3 Units

Pick: Trae Young 30+ Points +200 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 2-1

Spread Record: 3-3

Total Record: 2-2

Player Props Record: 3-5

Total: 10-11

Down 3.1 Units

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