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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/1/2023

by Spencer Toth - 11/1/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers Mitchell Robinson

The Knicks and Cavaliers square off in New York tonight, after the Knicks prevailed 109-91 in Cleveland yesterday. This season, I will be breaking down every New York Knicks game and giving out my best bets for the contest. Using my knowledge of the team, combined with the league as a whole, we will be able to churn out a profit by the season’s end.

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In yesterday’s matchup, the Knicks used balanced scoring and strong defense to emerge victorious. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson led the team with 19 points apiece, with 5 different players scoring 13+ points for New York. The Knicks shooting was pretty average across the board, as they shot 44% from the floor, 38% from deep, and 80% from the free throw line, but they were able to pull away thanks to their active hands-on defense, and their willingness to chase down the boards. Tom Thibodeau executed his game plan perfectly, and Cleveland didn’t have the offensive support to break down the Knicks.

From a betting perspective, we had a perfect night. The Knicks easily covered the 2.5 point spread in their 18-point victory, and the Under was never in question at 213.5, as the game finished with exactly 200 points. We have gotten off to a solid start to the new season, after finishing last year with a profit of 23.1 Units, and will look to keep it up tonight.

The New York Knicks (2-2) run it back with the Cleveland Cavaliers (1-3), this time at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks lost their only home game of the season. However, with 4 home games in the next week, New York will be able to get their first win of the season in front of the New York faithful. The Cavaliers will once again be missing several of their star players, and New York will be confident they can sweep their mini-series against Cleveland. Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen will both be out again, and Donovan Mitchell is still questionable after eventually suiting up last night. Mitchell may elect to sit this one out on the back-to-back. And if that’s the case, the Cavs will have to turn to Evan Mobley to lead their offense. After a hot start to his career, Evan Mobley hasn’t been able to replicate his good form. He may have seen a slight increase in PPG last year compared to his rookie season. However, heading into his third year, there is no more time to wait around and see if he can develop. Mobley posted 16.2 PPG last season, but his ball security became an issue as he logged 2.8 Assists and 2.8 Turnovers on a nightly basis. In the early stages of this season, Mobley will need to step up and deliver more than the 15 PPG he’s bringing to the table. A beat-up Cavaliers squad needs him now more than ever.

For New York, they’ll be hoping to get above the .500 mark for the first time this season against Cleveland. In what should’ve been a pair of tough games, the Knicks have an opportunity to steal a pair of wins when the Cavaliers are most vulnerable. Without their stars, the Cavaliers are really no match for New York. Despite Randle’s poor play to start the season, the Knicks have the confidence and bench scoring needed to succeed. Randle’s 19 points last night were a season high, but he still shot just 5/14 from the floor as his shooting woes continued. Since Brunson joined the Knicks, he’s become the face of the franchise while Randle is now his right-hand man. It’s clearly affected his overall offensive performance, but Randle will be running out of time to regain his form if he wants to stay relevant on an ambitious Knicks squad. His post play is still effective, but he is clearly lacking the confidence to take defenders on 1v1, and he fails to keep his head up when the help is on the way. He’s not playing terrible basketball. However, after setting a high standard for himself over the last few seasons, the Knicks fan base will not accept mediocrity from their star.

If the Knicks are to succeed once again tonight, they’ll need to limit the effectiveness of Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell went 11/20 last night, while the rest of the Cavaliers went 27/72. New York had limited success in shutting down the Cavs high screen and roll, and Mitchell doesn’t need much room to get a quality shot off once he comes off the screen from Mobley. Mitchell Robinson is a quality paint protector. However, once he gets caught in the open floor, it usually results in an easy midrange shooting opportunity. If Brunson can fight through the screens, and stick to Mitchell like glue, the Knicks will secure the first home win of the season. 

The lines have shifted from last night, as the Knicks are all the way up to 6.5-point favorites after being slight 2.5-point favorites last night. The total has also dropped from 213.5 to 211 after the teams combined for 200 points last night. However, there is still plenty of money to be made. 

The first bet for tonight will be on the Knicks to cover the spread. New York dominated the Cavaliers for the entire 48 minutes last night, and there is no reason to expect anything less tonight. The Cavaliers don’t have the squad depth to keep up with New York, as the Knicks poured on 42 bench points in last night's victory. A 6.5-point spread is tough to swallow, but the Knicks are simply much better than the available Cavaliers squad.

Regarding the total, I think we’re due for a bit of regression and will play the Over 211. The Cavaliers missed countless open 3’s last night. And if a few more of them can find the mark, the Cavaliers will help push this total over. Many teams live and die by the 3 ball, and the Cavaliers will need their capable shooters to find the mark if they expect to keep things close in New York. Finally, we’ll take Mitchell Robinson to score over 6.5 points. Robinson may not be able to cook up offense in the open floor, but he’s more than capable of cleaning up the garbage and getting easy buckets under the hoop. His struggles at the free throw line can be frustrating when tailing his Over, but he’s cashed this line in each of his last 3 games and should get plenty of opportunities to do so once again with Jarrett Allen on the bench.

Pick: New York Knicks (-6.5) 2 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Cavaliers Over 211 1 Unit

Pick: Mitchell Robinson Over 6.5 Points -120 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 1-0

Spread Record: 2-0

Total Record: 1-1

Player Props Record: 1-2

Total: 5-3

Up 3.2 Units

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