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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 10/27/2023

by Spencer Toth - 10/26/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks Trae Young

The New York Knicks take on the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night, in what should be a tight contest for the entire 48 minutes. I will be breaking down every New York Knicks game and letting you know where you should be placing your cold hard cash.

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The Knicks lost their season opener against the Celtics 108-104, after getting torched by Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis, who dropped 34 and 30 points, respectively. New York had a solid game from behind the arc, going 18/41, but their struggles at the free throw line cost them a victory. They sank just 14 of their 26 attempts, and Julius Randle went just 1/5 from the charity stripe. While losing the home opener will sting, the Knicks still proved they belong among the Eastern Conference heavyweights, and their passionate fan base will be optimistic they can put together another successful season.

From a betting perspective, we went 1-2 on our picks. The Celtics narrowly covered the 3.5-point spread, giving us our lone win. Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday failed to log a single steal, and Randle scored just 14 points, falling well short of his 22.5-point total, despite chucking up 22 attempts.

On Friday, the Knicks (0-1) head on the road to square off against the Atlanta Hawks (0-1). Atlanta lost their season opener against the Charlotte Hornets, 116-110. The Hawks are a middling team in the league, after finishing 41-41 last season. With Trae Young and Dejounte Murray in the backcourt, they were expected to handle their business against the Hornets. However, a 17% clip from deep cost them a victory.

Atlanta has all the tools they need to finish in a 4th-6th seed, but they just haven’t been able to put it all together. When Young is on his game, he is one of the deadliest shooters in the league. However, he has been unable to string several consistent games together throughout his career. He is very good at finding the open man and has the shooting ability to pull up with just an inch of space, but his lack of movement off the ball makes him a liability on offense when he is not the focal point. Joining him in the backcourt is Murray. Murray joined the Hawks in last year’s offseason and was expected to turn them into a contender. However, he has been unable to find chemistry with Young, and the pair failed to score 25+ each in the final 18 games of the regular season last year. With a lack of other reliable options on Atlanta, if the Knicks can shut down at least one of their two guards, they will put themselves in a great position to pick up their first win of the season.

Overall, the Knicks played the Celtics tough. And if they bring the same level of intensity with them to Atlanta, there is no doubt in my mind they will emerge victorious. The Knicks bench is what will set them apart from the rest of the middle class in the Eastern Conference. Immanuel Quickley erupted for 24 points while shooting 7/11 from the field in their season opener. And whether it is him, Josh Hart, or Donte DiVincenzo, there will always be a solid option for the Knicks to replace their starters. However, they will need their stars to step up. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle combined for just 29 points, while going 11/43 from the floor, and 1/6 from the free throw line. The rest of the Knicks role players will need to keep their foot on the gas. And if their cover stars can do what they are paid to do, they will be in for a very successful season.

New York is coming in as a 2-point underdog against the Hawks, and I believe the wrong team is favored. The Knicks are coming off a hard-fought game with one of the NBA title favorites, while the Hawks dropped a very winnable game against the Hornets. New York has the ability to score from all 3 levels, has a very deep bench, and will clamp down on the Hawks on the perimeter en route to their first win of the season. Mitchell Robinson moves his feet enough at center to prevent ‘Lob City’ with Clint Capela from being effective, and I trust the Knicks starting 5 to hit their shots more consistently than the Hawks starting unit.

For the first bet of the night, we won’t bother taking the +2 point spread, and instead grab the juicy +110 Moneyline available.

Next up we’ll be targeting the total. Both of these teams had lackluster offensive performances and leaned on their defense to keep the game close. A total of 230.5 implies both sets of shooters will hit the mark, which I just don’t see happening. This matchup has the second highest total on Friday’s 11-game board. And considering how their respective openers went, 230.5 seems a little optimistic. Take the Under.

Finally, I’m expecting Brunson to find his mark from deep. We’ll grab a juicy +145 line on Brunson to hit Over 2.5 three’s as he’ll be able to take advantage of Young’s complacency on the defensive end. Brunson has cashed this prop in 6 of his last 12 regular season games, including the season opener, and the +145 price on offer is too good to pass up.

All picks use Doc’s Unit Betting System

Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline +110 2 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Hawks Under 230.5 2 Units

Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 3’s +145 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 0-0

Spread Record: 1-0

Total Record: 0-0

Player Props Record: 0-2

Total: 1-2

2022-23 Season Record with the Milwaukee Bucks:

ML Record: 15-10

Spread Record: 19-14

Total Record: 8-13

Player Props Record: 31-23

Total: 73-62

Up 23.1 Units ($2310)

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