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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 10/25/2023

by Spencer Toth - 10/25/2023

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics Jalen Brunson

This season, I will be breaking down every New York Knicks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. We may not always favor the Knicks. However, using my knowledge on the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the year's end, just as I did for the Milwaukee Bucks last season.

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The New York Knicks have a couple new faces joining them in their season opener, as Donte DiVincenzo will look to make an instant impact in the Big Apple. DiVincenzo will be a part of a very effective second unit featuring Josh Hart and Immanuel Quickley, and the Knicks will have the benefit of having one of the deepest bench units to kick off the season.

Tonight, the New York Knicks (0-0) welcome a new look Boston Celtics (0-0) squad to Madison Square Garden, and they are coming in as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Celtics picked up Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday in the offseason, while shipping out Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III. It is clear the Celtics wanted to upgrade their perimeter shooting in the offseason, and there will be fascinating matchups up and down the court in their season debut.

Julius Randle had the best regular season of his career last year, posting a career high 25.1 PPG, and he will be tasked with matching Jayson Tatum’s production if the Knicks want a chance to emerge victorious. Randle thrives in the post. And while Tatum has the size to shut him down, he has a tendency to pick up some early fouls. If Randle can get into the body of the Celtics star, make him uncomfortable, he could force the big man to take an early seat on the bench. For Tatum, he set a career high in points for the 6th straight year last season, with 30.1 PPG. If he can continue to best that mark this year, the Celtics will maintain their position atop the Eastern Conference standings from a season ago and will force Randle and the Knicks to be on their best behavior on the defensive end, or this one will get out of hand early.

One of the reasons the bulk of the scoring will have to come from Randle, is because Jalen Brunson will be tasked with unlocking the elite perimeter defense Holiday brings to the court. After moving on from his three seasons in Milwaukee, the 33-year-old will look to add another ring to his mantle with the Celtics and will routinely be locking down the opposition's best guard. For the Knicks, there is no doubt that it is Brunson. Brunson made the move to New York last offseason, instantly gelled with his teammates, and became the face of the franchise with 25.1 PPG in his debut season with the Knicks. Brunson tacked on 6.2 Assists to go along with his elite scoring, and he will not hesitate to get the ball out of his hands if Holiday has him locked up. On the defensive end, Brunson will not have the toughest task with Holiday, as we will see the ball with Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Porzingis more frequently than his matchup.

Of course, Randle and Brunson get the deserved spotlight on them, but it will come down to which one of the role players can step up for New York this season. They have at least 8 players that are more than talented enough to start on many NBA rosters, allowing the Knicks to roll with two very solid units, and give them an edge with their bench squad. One of those role players that is poised to have a breakout season is RJ Barrett. Barrett was drafted 3rd overall in 2019 but has seen his growth plateau in the last few seasons. He saw his PPG (19.6), 3 Point percentage (31.0), Rebounds (5.0) and Assists (2.8) all decline from the 2021-22 season, but the young Canadian put together a very effective FIBA World Cup with Canada and could be set to bounce back in a bolstered Knicks unit. Barrett can shoot from all 3 levels on the court. And despite the fact it feels like he’s been in the league for years, he’s still just 23-years-old and has plenty of room to grow. If head coach Tom Thibodeau can reignite the spark inside the budding superstar, the Knicks could see themselves walk out a very well rounded starting 5 on a nightly basis.

In tonight’s matchup, while I am high on the Knicks this season, the first bet of the night will be for the Celtics to cover the 3.5-point spread. Boston has title aspirations on their mind, after getting knocked out in the Finals, and Eastern Conference Finals in the last 2 seasons. Tatum and Brown will give the Knicks all the scoring they can handle, and the occasional dry spell for New York will allow the Celtics to pull away. Boston is desperate to get their season started on the right foot and will not allow an overall inferior Knicks squad to spoil their opening night party. Randle will have a solid game, but the rest of the Knicks starting core will struggle to consistently score against the Celtics.

The second bet for tonight is for Randle to score Over 22.5 Points. We’re getting a soft line as while Tatum is no scrub on defense, he will be more focused on filling up the hoop in the season opener. Randle averaged 25.1 PPG last season, and with Holiday locking up Brunson for large portions of the night, the bulk of the scoring will fall on Randle’s shoulders. I’m not expecting him to be overly efficient, but a large quantity of shooting opportunities will allow him to cash this very reasonable line.

Finally, we’ll be taking Jrue Holiday Over 0.5 Steals at -190 odds. Holiday is bringing a defensive reputation with him to Boston and will be eager to get his hands active early on the defensive end. We’re being asked to pay juice, which is understandable considering he averages 1.5 steals per game in his career, and he’s logged at least 1 steal in 16 of his last 19 games to close out last season.

Pick: Boston Celtics (-3.5) 1 Unit

Pick: Julius Randle Over 22.5 Points 1 Unit

Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 0.5 Steals -190 2 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 0-0

Spread Record: 0-0

Total Record: 0-0

Player Props Record: 0-0

Total: 0-0

2022-23 Season Record with the Milwaukee Bucks:

ML Record: 15-10

Spread Record: 19-14

Total Record: 8-13

Player Props Record: 31-23

Total: 73-62

Up 23.1 Units ($2310)

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