Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/5/2023

by Spencer Toth - 4/5/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions DeMar DeRozan Chicago Bulls

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Last night, the Bucks comfortably beat the Wizards 140-128, on the back of a 28-point triple double from Giannis Antetokounmpo, and a 19-point, 20-rebound performance from Bobby Portis. The Bucks were able to dominate on the glass and have set themselves up with an opportunity to clinch the top seed in the league with a victory tonight.

From a betting perspective, we had a heartbreaking 0-2 night. Considering the good fortune we’ve had over the last few weeks, I can’t complain, but every loss still stings. Pat Connaughton got the starting nod, but sprained his ankle 5 minutes into the game, and did not return, obviously falling short of his 1.5 Assist mark. Against the spread, we had Bucks -13 and they ended up winning by 12 after leading by as much as 24 and taking a 19-point lead into the final minute of the game. Close calls, but we move on.

Tonight, the Bucks (57-22) welcome the Chicago Bulls (38-41) to Milwaukee. Both teams are coming into tonight’s matchup on the second night of a back-to-back, and the final injury reports are still in the air. The Bulls recently clinched a spot in the play-in tournament and will need to win their final 3 games for a chance to finish with a top 8 seed. Both teams are likely locked into their 1st and 10th seeds, respectively, leaving little to play for, and little reason to risk injuries on a back-to-back.

While there are certainly plenty of issues with the Bulls, a 9-5 run heading into tonight’s contest has filled them with confidence heading into the playoffs. DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic are wrapping up their 2nd season together in Chicago, and things have not gone to plan in the Windy City. The trio were expected to consistently be challenging for an NBA title. However, with just 1 playoff win and bleak hopes for this season, the experiment has ultimately been an utter disaster. A season long injury to Lonzo Ball has certainly not helped, but considering the young star could miss the entirety of next season too, there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the Bulls.

A visit to the league’s top seed is never an easy task, and the Bulls will need to find ways to contain the top rebounding team in the league. Despite the presence of Vucevic and Andre Drummond, the Bulls rank 22nd in the league in rebounds and find themselves giving extra possessions to their opposition. Turnovers and rebounds are easy ways to throw games away, as Chicago saw in their recent 23-point comeback against Memphis, where the turnovers finished 18-1 in their favor.

Chicago has had Milwaukee’s number this season, going an impressive 2-1 while limiting the Bucks to 113 points or fewer in all 3 matchups. If the Bulls can once again find ways to slow down Antetokounmpo, while still defending the three-point line, they can find success on the road. The Bucks have struggled with containing tall, agile ‘smalls’, and the duo of LaVine and DeRozan will give Jrue Holiday and the Bucks issues defensively. Grayson Allen is expected to sit once again, and the defensive responsibilities on the perimeter can’t fall to just Holiday alone. The Bulls have the talent to punish the Bucks in the mid-range and will knock down shots if left open. Another weakness for Milwaukee is teams that can move the ball well. The Bucks are on a 12-4 run, but all 4 losses have come from teams who ranked in the top 8 in assists per game. Quick ball movement is one way to unlock this Milwaukee defense, but the Bulls, who run plenty of isolation heavy possessions, do not fit the bill.

For the first bet of the night, I see no reason to waver from the Bucks, and will take both their -250 Moneyline, and -6.5 point spread. The Bucks are only beat by certain styles of teams, and while the guard play from the Bulls may cause issues, the advantages in the paint, and the heavy iso playstyle from the Bulls, will allow the Bucks to defend their home court. Unless Mike Budenholzer decides to rest the entire team, whatever combination of players walk onto the court should get the job done.

The third bet of the night is DeMar DeRozan Over 23.5 Points. DeRozan will be able to generate offense from all three areas of the court, and should have no problem staying away from Holiday, who should have his hands full with LaVine. While he’s only hit this prop in 1 of his last 5 games, he’s finished close, with 21+ points in all 5 contests, and will do just enough to tick over 23.5 points.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline -250 3 Units

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5) 2 Units

Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 23.5 Points 1 Unit

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 12-9

Spread Record: 17-12

Total Record: 7-11

Player Props Record: 30-21

Total: 66-55

Up 27.7 Units ($2770)

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers