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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/4/2023

by Spencer Toth - 4/4/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Corey Kispert Washington Wizards

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Thursday night, the Bucks got demolished on their home court 140-99. The Boston Celtics ran riot over a healthy Bucks team, stamping their authority on a potential Eastern Conference Final matchup. As expected, the Bucks had no answer for Jayson Tatum, who dropped 40 points in 30 minutes, going 8/10 from behind the arc. His size and athleticism is a tough guard for anyone in the league, and the Bucks specifically don’t have the personnel to contain him. The 41-point loss is the largest this season for Milwaukee and is the 7th biggest loss in franchise history. Ouch.

From a betting perspective, we had yet another 2-0 night. The Celtics easily won, cashing our +120 Moneyline bet, while Marcus Smart sailed Over his 5.5 Assists mark, handing out 8 dimes in the blowout. We’re approaching the 30 Units positive mark, with just 4 games to go in the regular season.

On Sunday night, the Bucks took down the Philadelphia 76ers 117-104 in another potential Eastern Conference Final matchup. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 33 points, going 13/17 from the floor. The victory ensured the Bucks kept a 2-game cushion ahead of Boston with just 4 games to go for both teams.

Tonight, the Bucks (56-22) travel to Washington to take on the Wizards (34-44). Washington was eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday, and their stars have been shut down for the remainder of the season. Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, and Monte Morris all have various ailments, and will leave the Wizards severely undermanned. Beal, Kuzma, and Porzingis are the only players on Washington averaging 20+ PPG, leaving Corey Kispert’s 10.8 PPG leading the way for Washington. While there is doubt that the Wizards are not putting great importance on the final few games, they’ve managed to keep games close recently. They’ve gone 2-3 over the last 2 weeks, with all 3 losses coming by 10 or fewer points. While players like Kispert and Deni Avdija will not lead Washington up the standings, they are more than capable of competing with the league’s best. Kispert has averaged 23.2 PPG over his last 5 starts, while Avdija is averaging 15.2 PPG.

The Bucks are expected to visit Washington and walk out with an easy victory. They’ve been dominant over the last few months and should have no issue dismantling an ailing Wizards team. Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez are the best trio of defenders in the league, and the Bucks #2 ranked defense and Brook Lopez’s DPOY frontrunner status backs up that claim. While the loss of Khris Middleton and Grayson Allen for this contest will certainly be felt, the Bucks are more than deep enough to mitigate the effect of their absence.

This column could be solely about the greatness of Antetokounmpo each and every game, as the MVP candidate continues to defy the odds, and just keeps getting better. His 31.1 PPG this year is the first time in his career he’s surpassed the 30-point mark, and once he gets going downhill, the only way to stop him is to send him to the free throw line. His free throw percentage remains a concern at 64.6 percent, but he’s still never been more dominant. There is no doubt Milwaukee remains the team to beat, and their +280 title odds leave little doubt about the Bucks aspirations.

While it may be easy to look ahead to the postseason, the Bucks still have meaningful basketball to play. The top seed in the East is still up for grabs, and Milwaukee will need to win 3 of their last 4 to guarantee home court advantage throughout the postseason. They are heading to Washington as 13-point favorites, and a prohibitive -900 on the Moneyline. Despite the fact that the Wizards have recently kept games close, I’ll be backing the Bucks against the spread. No disrespect to the Knicks, Raptors, and Magic, but staying within 10 points while losing against that caliber of opposition is not exactly a difficult feat. The Wizards bench players have filled in admirably, but the Bucks will be too strong tonight. Middleton and Allen being out leaves them thin at guard, but the Wizards don’t have the outside talent to punish this weakness. Jae Crowder, Pat Connaughton, Jevon Carter, and Jrue Holiday will get the job done.

The second bet of the night is Pat Connaughton Over 1.5 Assists. The role playing guard should see an increase in minutes tonight with Middleton and Allen out, and we are benefitting from the fact he rode the bench in the Bucks recent victory. There is always a chance he doesn’t step foot on the court, but when he does, he should make the most of his minutes.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-13) 1 Unit

Pick: Pat Connaughton Over 1.5 Assists 1 Unit

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 12-9

Spread Record: 17-11

Total Record: 7-11

Player Props Record: 30-20

Total: 66-53

Up 29.7 Units ($2970)

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